tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-138432312024-03-07T17:05:10.551-05:00Bouquets of GrayReflections on Canadian life and PoliticsUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger629125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13843231.post-32215460662813987292016-04-16T07:46:00.001-04:002016-04-16T07:46:35.985-04:00Trudeau fails to renounce KKK!The evidence is at the top right:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0g6gsMZP12Cp8okEAGdWMAGKxh2_Ax3OpToHpXW0YrPTQ28mBBuIlFS5hX91f80Fev38V6awNJJildfCHWDHLcCxJsHHjIMgdq62n1F2EJIiaOumHj0cIvs2m6ujAGxaCFSSz/s1600/trudeau-kkk.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="353" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0g6gsMZP12Cp8okEAGdWMAGKxh2_Ax3OpToHpXW0YrPTQ28mBBuIlFS5hX91f80Fev38V6awNJJildfCHWDHLcCxJsHHjIMgdq62n1F2EJIiaOumHj0cIvs2m6ujAGxaCFSSz/s640/trudeau-kkk.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13843231.post-67859509960053433902015-10-20T10:10:00.001-04:002015-10-20T10:10:29.723-04:00A few interesting statisticsThe election result in the end probably showed that strategic voting in most ridings was unnecessary or, indeed, count-productive.<div>
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But I take some pleasure in the following statistics:</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>my post recommending that strategic voters in Edmonton Mill Woods vote Liberal appeared at the top of the google search for 'strategic voting Mill Woods'</li>
<li>I received 89 visits to this page from Edmonton</li>
<li>the Liberal candidate was elected by a margin of 80 votes</li>
</ul>
<div>
Elsewhere my effect was less noticeable.</div>
</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13843231.post-59565004137207048952015-10-18T12:28:00.001-04:002015-10-18T12:28:39.355-04:00What were they thinking?Pundits are puzzled by the decision of the Fords to associate themselves with a controversial and reviled figure. The damage to the Ford brand could be significant.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHYDhxZr1_rfpq7MzMZ5OOLQTMe-804XbKh6CTZiQE6ly_uiN9PzF-9LflwXzynPiFPhMH2PVZsLnlNkhbV9bAt68kddEv5ns0K5MDayh26SdGeYRGYMVFtl8DrgJMyP8cn1we/s1600/fords-and-harper.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="354" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHYDhxZr1_rfpq7MzMZ5OOLQTMe-804XbKh6CTZiQE6ly_uiN9PzF-9LflwXzynPiFPhMH2PVZsLnlNkhbV9bAt68kddEv5ns0K5MDayh26SdGeYRGYMVFtl8DrgJMyP8cn1we/s640/fords-and-harper.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The Ford brothers with admirer at last night's Conservative rally.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13843231.post-86278719078613608312015-10-18T08:54:00.000-04:002016-06-20T14:42:02.111-04:00Some useful "word power" booksHere are some books that I've come across recently that might be useful for those who want to build their knowledge of word-power and etymologies:<br />
<br />
<ol>
<li><a href="https://www.amazon.ca/Word-Power-Made-Norman-Lewis/dp/067174190X">Norman Lewis, Word Power Made Easy</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.radixantiqua.com/#!medical-terminology/obujz">Medical Terminology For Dummies (2nd-Edition)</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.radixantiqua.com/#!medical-terminology/obujz">Lewis Stiles, The Anatomy of Medical Terminology</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.amazon.ca/Verbal-Advantage-Steps-Powerful-Vocabulary/dp/0375709320/ref=pd_sim_14_1?ie=UTF8&dpID=5148CXJ6ADL&dpSrc=sims&preST=_AC_UL160_SR107%2C160_&refRID=5V2H7DM5C5D1MRRFAVK8">Verbal Advantage: Steps to a Powerful Vocabulary</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.amazon.ca/1100-Words-You-Need-Know/dp/1438001665/ref=pd_sim_14_3?ie=UTF8&dpID=51VR3-y9f2L&dpSrc=sims&preST=_AC_UL160_SR115%2C160_&refRID=QCEEA4S23PKDX1D7MNT4">Barron's 1100 Words You Need Know</a></li>
</ol>
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13843231.post-3274093193201949722015-10-17T18:38:00.000-04:002015-10-17T18:39:04.110-04:00Strategic voting in Nipissing—Timiskaming: vote LiberalThe riding of Nipissing—Timiskaming was one of the closest in the country in 2011. The Conservative Jay Aspin defeated the Liberal Anthony Rota by a mere 18 votes. The NDP received 8,781 and the Greens 2,518.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBx8erhGPp-mZfrP8FetQhRLT9OjL33PbOtcQLfUdwgTJNX5Ga0RLNozv2U0mFkg1vhT8xgOjlx6rpS1tvCwfTgpD6Gz8Toz9mcTfwyeXgxlNnqjAr6R1PaNlsE2IXZWEG6HGR/s1600/Nipissing%25E2%2580%2594Timiskaming-2011-poll-results.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Strategic voting in Nipissing—Timiskaming" border="0" height="170" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBx8erhGPp-mZfrP8FetQhRLT9OjL33PbOtcQLfUdwgTJNX5Ga0RLNozv2U0mFkg1vhT8xgOjlx6rpS1tvCwfTgpD6Gz8Toz9mcTfwyeXgxlNnqjAr6R1PaNlsE2IXZWEG6HGR/s400/Nipissing%25E2%2580%2594Timiskaming-2011-poll-results.png" title="Strategic voting in Nipissing—Timiskaming" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
Clearly this is a riding where strategic voting is desired. Nor is it difficult to see that strategic voters should line up behind the Liberal.<br />
<br />
If there were any doubt about that, a local opinion poll conducted by CTV should remove it:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFy7XvCgYACDcY9uwEoLkKOCKdXA9ZkrnWDWVR3d1mzwKg1RSOUhb28satcZBTi-MM-QEx8RQfUgBcyYlBK95FOavEtc5GyciNfVM9G51LTKg40pJaGDacaVEDYeZJ0OgYKHxQ/s1600/ctv-poll-nipissing-timiskaming-strategic.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Strategic voting in Nipissing—Timiskaming" border="0" height="244" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFy7XvCgYACDcY9uwEoLkKOCKdXA9ZkrnWDWVR3d1mzwKg1RSOUhb28satcZBTi-MM-QEx8RQfUgBcyYlBK95FOavEtc5GyciNfVM9G51LTKg40pJaGDacaVEDYeZJ0OgYKHxQ/s320/ctv-poll-nipissing-timiskaming-strategic.png" title="Strategic voting in Nipissing—Timiskaming" width="320" /></a></div>
<div>
<br />
<br />
Some recent posts:<br />
<ul style="orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; widows: 1;">
<li><a href="https://www.blogger.com/Strategic%20voting%20in%20Nipissing%E2%80%94Timiskaming:%20vote%20Liberal">Strategic voting in Nipissing—Timiskaming: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-hamilton-west_14.html">Strategic Voting in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-cariboo-prince.html">Strategic voting in Cariboo-Prince George: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-central-nova.html">Strategic voting in Central Nova: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-haldimand-norfolk.html">Strategic voting in Haldimand-Norfolk: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-courtney-alberni.html">Strategic voting in Courtney-Alberni: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-oshawa-vote-ndp.html">Strategic voting in Oshawa: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-peterboroughkawarth.html">Strategic voting in Peterborough—Kawartha: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-south-okanagan-west.html">Strategic voting in South Okanagan-West Kootenay: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-kootenay-columbia-vote.html">Strategic voting Kootenay-Columbia: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-winnipeg-south-vote.html">Strategic voting in Winnipeg South</a>: vote Liberal</li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-kanata-carleton.html">Strategic voting in Kanata-Carleton: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-south-okanagan-west.html">Strategic voting in South Okanagan-West Kootenay: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-misissauga-east.html">Strategic voting in Misissauga East-Cooksville: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-perth-wellington.html">Strategic voting in Perth-Wellington: vote Liberal</a></li>
</ul>
</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13843231.post-29442517860552327292015-10-16T08:54:00.001-04:002015-10-17T18:39:24.111-04:00Strategic voting in Perth-Wellington: vote LiberalIf polls are to be believed, the Liberals are dominating in Ontario. <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/poll-tracker/2015/index.html">Grenier's poll tracker</a> projects the Liberal support in Ontario at 43% and the Conservatives down to 31%:<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMxA8F8YB6IVLHlqcdtztxGT4Yr9kA-owfy_jn4nqDSwCuzslJj3ADact-Sw7_wpw0UB6hYwjssLie2OvuMM0JFzb2vsmuXtiktxDkwPcTN0-sbeni3g6NMx7hP778NNY4zlGe/s1600/strategic-voting-perth-wellington-ont-polls.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Polls and Strategic voting Perth-Wellington" border="0" height="221" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMxA8F8YB6IVLHlqcdtztxGT4Yr9kA-owfy_jn4nqDSwCuzslJj3ADact-Sw7_wpw0UB6hYwjssLie2OvuMM0JFzb2vsmuXtiktxDkwPcTN0-sbeni3g6NMx7hP778NNY4zlGe/s400/strategic-voting-perth-wellington-ont-polls.png" title="Polls and Strategic voting Perth-Wellington" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 16px;">Ontario Polls from Poll Tracker</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div>
This shift against Harper is showing up on the ground in ridings that one would normally assume are fairly safe, such as Perth-Wellington, where a local poll conducted by <a href="http://www.stratfordbeaconherald.com/2015/10/15/poll-suggests-conservatives-liberals-neck-and-neck-in-perth-wellington">Mainstreet Research for Postmedia</a>, which found a neck-and-neck race between the Conservatives and Liberals:</div>
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<br /></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiD8wjm1wHSgAZ9BhxbwjsS6CiO5TYVmY_SU8fj3XTkyEnPoA5fTXe8VXveQ4hLL6vL2_QjgvjENLnoEUhDuEXayH-B2HJ8Fhw8UluhWvhpXk-zPZtr_EQEdMn7l2PIhe_hFtND/s1600/perth-wellington-poll-strategic-voting.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Polling in Perth-Wellington" border="0" height="96" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiD8wjm1wHSgAZ9BhxbwjsS6CiO5TYVmY_SU8fj3XTkyEnPoA5fTXe8VXveQ4hLL6vL2_QjgvjENLnoEUhDuEXayH-B2HJ8Fhw8UluhWvhpXk-zPZtr_EQEdMn7l2PIhe_hFtND/s200/perth-wellington-poll-strategic-voting.png" title="Polls in Perth-Wellington" width="200" /></a></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
If this poll is correct, strategic voters in Perth-Wellington should vote for the Liberals.<br />
<br />
The riding includes such towns as Stratford, St. Marys, Elora, Fergus, and Minto.<br />
<br />
Some recent posts:<br />
<ul style="orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; widows: 1;">
<li><a href="https://www.blogger.com/Strategic%20voting%20in%20Nipissing%E2%80%94Timiskaming:%20vote%20Liberal">Strategic voting in Nipissing—Timiskaming: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-hamilton-west_14.html">Strategic Voting in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-cariboo-prince.html">Strategic voting in Cariboo-Prince George: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-central-nova.html">Strategic voting in Central Nova: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-haldimand-norfolk.html">Strategic voting in Haldimand-Norfolk: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-courtney-alberni.html">Strategic voting in Courtney-Alberni: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-oshawa-vote-ndp.html">Strategic voting in Oshawa: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-peterboroughkawarth.html">Strategic voting in Peterborough—Kawartha: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-south-okanagan-west.html">Strategic voting in South Okanagan-West Kootenay: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-kootenay-columbia-vote.html">Strategic voting Kootenay-Columbia: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-winnipeg-south-vote.html">Strategic voting in Winnipeg South</a>: vote Liberal</li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-kanata-carleton.html">Strategic voting in Kanata-Carleton: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-south-okanagan-west.html">Strategic voting in South Okanagan-West Kootenay: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-misissauga-east.html">Strategic voting in Misissauga East-Cooksville: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-perth-wellington.html">Strategic voting in Perth-Wellington: vote Liberal</a></li>
</ul>
</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13843231.post-32303534968298564552015-10-15T12:14:00.002-04:002015-10-15T12:14:17.150-04:00heh<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDiXvU8hiWcbqi0DeyS4_mopPR7bYYdgMW8kKXIKC0lH_IHdhNNK_7L_R49gzft_9HXbsGHi11O9EAg6QgXR6s1bXhwIjI9tuuDbrwpBKr8_e32w7DOe9lCm6oGr-Nd4UfTqpv/s1600/strategic-voting-2015.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="512" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDiXvU8hiWcbqi0DeyS4_mopPR7bYYdgMW8kKXIKC0lH_IHdhNNK_7L_R49gzft_9HXbsGHi11O9EAg6QgXR6s1bXhwIjI9tuuDbrwpBKr8_e32w7DOe9lCm6oGr-Nd4UfTqpv/s640/strategic-voting-2015.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13843231.post-86910827543031716342015-10-14T16:53:00.002-04:002015-10-14T16:53:34.847-04:00Conservative: Trudeau will mandate brothels and drugsThe Harper campaign has surely now jumped the shark:<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/C8Yi4Z_RVdg" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
Transcript:<br />
<br />
Young: "Do you want communities in Oakville that are quite and safe, where our largest investment, our homes, retain their value, as they do now. Or communities where a federal Liberal government mandates legally protected brothels with madams and all that goes with that (audience groans) — because the Liberals have promised legalize the selling of women in Canada — and mandates marijuana stores, like in Vancouver where there are more illegal marijuana stores than Starbucks, and mandates drug injection sites with no local input from the neighbours. One day most of plan to sell our homes. What family would invest their life savings in a home near a marijuana store, a brothel, or an injection site…'Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13843231.post-89153587468408174692015-10-14T12:24:00.000-04:002015-10-17T19:23:34.904-04:00Calgary Confederation, Skyview, and Centre: strategic voters should support the Liberals<b>Update</b>, Oct. 17. <a href="http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/alberta-riding-polls/"> A new poll in Calgary Centre</a> has the Liberals and Conservatives neck-and-neck. Strategic voters could make the difference.<br /><br /><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjr4DBWpJme3JpyFpfVuR0HLSEat6FB1cTMyUJUAcO9NOr-qIg4_upOAs_Rcf7-uH6X-awsa5-3yKP79ktGGsO8iS2JlHhn0d3CNU42zv0ZBjIYx9WLPVZRKuJ8EEqdwIIyjQfY/s1600/strategic-voting-Calgary-skyview-centre-conferation.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Strategic voting in Calgary Confederation, Skyview, and Centre" border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjr4DBWpJme3JpyFpfVuR0HLSEat6FB1cTMyUJUAcO9NOr-qIg4_upOAs_Rcf7-uH6X-awsa5-3yKP79ktGGsO8iS2JlHhn0d3CNU42zv0ZBjIYx9WLPVZRKuJ8EEqdwIIyjQfY/s320/strategic-voting-Calgary-skyview-centre-conferation.jpg" title="Strategic voting in Calgary Confederation, Skyview, and Centre" width="198" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 16px; text-align: center;">Calgary Conferation,<br />
Calgary Skyview,<br />
Calgary Centre</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
This election has a few more surprises than most, and the fracturing of the Conservatives' fortress in Calgary might be one of them.<br />
<br />
A <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-alberta-calgary-petty-1.3269499">news story from the CBC reports</a> that three Calgary ridings are surprisingly competitive: Calgary Centre, Calgary Confederation, and Calgary Skyview.<br />
<br />
This is also the interpretation of Eric Grenier over at <a href="http://threehundredeight.com/">threehundredeight.com</a>. His current projections for the Calgary ridings paint three ridings red: Calgary Centre, Calgary Confederation, and Calgary Skyview<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgftfhGjocfCdOOFUeN9pjotD5w474oJVqIwW583eftBCBUTiMO3cMn_woZI2JdjypcW4lDDXeSoosHBEjeAf2OrsvciSP0ITFUGXZdIlY7GkEDOjfJhn9qdeYY6KXAowGp-Nqm/s1600/strategic-voting-calgary-centre-skyview-confederation.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Strategic voting in Calgary Confederation, Skyview, and Centre" border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgftfhGjocfCdOOFUeN9pjotD5w474oJVqIwW583eftBCBUTiMO3cMn_woZI2JdjypcW4lDDXeSoosHBEjeAf2OrsvciSP0ITFUGXZdIlY7GkEDOjfJhn9qdeYY6KXAowGp-Nqm/s640/strategic-voting-calgary-centre-skyview-confederation.png" title="Strategic voting in Calgary Confederation, Skyview, and Centre" width="489" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 16px;">Calgary projections from <a href="http://threehundredeight.com/">threehundredeight.com</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
The striking thing is not merely that Grenier's a projecting these three seat for the Liberals. It is also seeing weakness in other ridings such as Signal Hill and Forest Lawn. <br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
For Calgary voters who want to vote strategically to defeat Harper, however, the message is clear. Vote Liberal.</div>
<div>
<br />
Some recent posts:<br />
<ul style="orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; widows: 1;">
<li><a href="https://www.blogger.com/Strategic%20voting%20in%20Nipissing%E2%80%94Timiskaming:%20vote%20Liberal">Strategic voting in Nipissing—Timiskaming: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-perth-wellington.html">Strategic voting in Perth-Wellington: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-hamilton-west_14.html">Strategic Voting in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-cariboo-prince.html">Strategic voting in Cariboo-Prince George: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-central-nova.html">Strategic voting in Central Nova: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-haldimand-norfolk.html">Strategic voting in Haldimand-Norfolk: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-courtney-alberni.html">Strategic voting in Courtney-Alberni: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-oshawa-vote-ndp.html">Strategic voting in Oshawa: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-peterboroughkawarth.html">Strategic voting in Peterborough—Kawartha: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-south-okanagan-west.html">Strategic voting in South Okanagan-West Kootenay: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-kootenay-columbia-vote.html">Strategic voting Kootenay-Columbia: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-winnipeg-south-vote.html">Strategic voting in Winnipeg South</a>: vote Liberal</li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-kanata-carleton.html">Strategic voting in Kanata-Carleton: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-south-okanagan-west.html">Strategic voting in South Okanagan-West Kootenay: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-misissauga-east.html" style="background-color: #f1f1f1; color: #776644; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 17.8px; line-height: 1.6em;">Strategic voting in Misissauga East-Cooksville: vote Liberal</a></li>
</ul>
</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13843231.post-12275804854831431562015-10-14T07:54:00.001-04:002015-10-17T18:39:45.915-04:00Strategic voting in Edmonton Mill Woods: vote Liberal<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQEmlQCGfNwKTyAatTb9j1cZ4VA3oS2MMjviF5xikM408UIoq_mMhZmmSbKnOZyHd4PcfQCk64T177efN90xoHlFWtPAmst3IR_8nAqkD77L1jiYeemO8LglK-1o2VzOZPVS-e/s1600/strategic-voting-edmonton-mill-woods.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Strategic voting in Edmonton Mill Woods" border="0" height="146" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQEmlQCGfNwKTyAatTb9j1cZ4VA3oS2MMjviF5xikM408UIoq_mMhZmmSbKnOZyHd4PcfQCk64T177efN90xoHlFWtPAmst3IR_8nAqkD77L1jiYeemO8LglK-1o2VzOZPVS-e/s200/strategic-voting-edmonton-mill-woods.jpg" title="Strategic voting in Edmonton Mill Woods" width="200" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 16px; text-align: center;"><i>Strategic voting in<br />Edmonton Mill Woods</i></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Recent local polls are bringing up some more opportunities for strategic voters, one of them is Edmonton Millwoods.<br />
<br />
Edmonton Millwoods is a new riding located in south-east Edmonton. It was formed from the previous riding of Edmonton-Millwoods-Beaumont, which was once represented by Liberal <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Kilgour">David Kilgour</a>.<br />
<br />
A new poll conducted by <a href="http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/friends-of-canadian-broadcasting/">MainStreet Research for the Friends of Canadian Broadcasting </a>suggests that the riding could be in play:<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_jjf42Ry7oSevJ7reTEjy5HLPi1Vt7W2_soPsncHYs6i0rlN-vwulGOKo5qjYLX0Oo59SCkJR-i8ydyTv6ImxYsuEzdmdmWDSA9pm8Sta6Mnwe6mfwEcsHDwFVwMK38EgPxyg/s1600/edmonton-mill-woods-srategic-voting.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Strategic voting in Edmonton Mill Woods" border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_jjf42Ry7oSevJ7reTEjy5HLPi1Vt7W2_soPsncHYs6i0rlN-vwulGOKo5qjYLX0Oo59SCkJR-i8ydyTv6ImxYsuEzdmdmWDSA9pm8Sta6Mnwe6mfwEcsHDwFVwMK38EgPxyg/s640/edmonton-mill-woods-srategic-voting.png" title="Strategic voting in Edmonton Mill Woods" width="490" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 16px;">New Poll in Edmonton Mill Woods</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Some recent posts:<br />
<ul style="orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; widows: 1;">
<li><a href="https://www.blogger.com/Strategic%20voting%20in%20Nipissing%E2%80%94Timiskaming:%20vote%20Liberal">Strategic voting in Nipissing—Timiskaming: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-perth-wellington.html">Strategic voting in Perth-Wellington: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-edmonton-mill-woods.html">Strategic voting in Edmonton Mill Woods: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: black; font-family: Times; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-hamilton-west_14.html">Strategic Voting in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: black; font-family: Times; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-bruce-grey-owen.html">Strategic voting in Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: black; font-family: Times; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-cariboo-prince.html">Strategic voting in Cariboo-Prince George: vote NDP</a></li>
<li style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: black; font-family: Times; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-central-nova.html">Strategic voting in Central Nova: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: black; font-family: Times; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-haldimand-norfolk.html">Strategic voting in Haldimand-Norfolk: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: black; font-family: Times; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-courtney-alberni.html">Strategic voting in Courtney-Alberni: vote NDP</a></li>
<li style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: black; font-family: Times; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-oshawa-vote-ndp.html">Strategic voting in Oshawa: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-winnipeg-south-vote.html">Strategic voting in Winnipeg South</a>: vote Liberal</li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-kanata-carleton.html">Strategic voting in Kanata-Carleton: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-south-okanagan-west.html">Strategic voting in South Okanagan-West Kootenay: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-misissauga-east.html">Strategic voting in Misissauga East-Cooksville: vote Liberal</a></li>
</ul>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13843231.post-33057325296752261572015-10-14T07:00:00.001-04:002015-10-17T18:39:55.563-04:00Strategic Voting in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas: vote Liberal<b>Update</b>, Oct. 17: the <a href="http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/35038/hamilton-westancasterdundas/">votetogether.ca team has endorsed Tassi, the Liberal candidate in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas</a>, as the best positioned to defeat the Conservatives.<br />
<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5sIhyBeVp6SHermIKiI64Nps6SxiHG191LARBl6PokgYAiZmq7Gr6iraEUkBDy2CwId_qyQ-gF-TciVtEGaHd2VSCR9gAhHKfIzJMnA0wP_PCxcJOyQn0KYXEcBiOCEkDO3T6/s1600/hamilton-west-ancaster-dundas-35038.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Strategic Tactical Voting in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas" border="0" height="237" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5sIhyBeVp6SHermIKiI64Nps6SxiHG191LARBl6PokgYAiZmq7Gr6iraEUkBDy2CwId_qyQ-gF-TciVtEGaHd2VSCR9gAhHKfIzJMnA0wP_PCxcJOyQn0KYXEcBiOCEkDO3T6/s320/hamilton-west-ancaster-dundas-35038.jpg" title="Strategic Tactical Voting in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 16px; text-align: center;"><i>Strategic Voting in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas</i></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas (HWAD) is a new riding made up of the urban and suburban parts of what used to be Ancaster-Dundas-Flamorough-Westdale. Its formation resulted in the rural polls of Flamborough being joined with Glanborough to form a new largely rural riding.<br />
<br />
HWAD should now be a three-way race, with Conservative voters from upscale Ancaster and Dundas, NDP voters from Hamilton, and Liberals from both. And it should be an active riding for all parties, because the McMaster student base should become active in all three parties.<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNOmpo5nIpgCNkHV2Q4tQd8Ik8YyMnWh-S-GSSI2NMsd5KfEOjXT07ZVAAta-Y907xCmTGCzrtfv5d9z3MKZqiMy9t6_CbqoxQwfV-HpqpID-zWOhRi9O6ncKy7Ovc5FQLj6j6/s1600/hamilton-west-ancaster-dundas-strategic-voting-308.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Strategic tactical voting in Hamilton West Ancaster Dundas" border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNOmpo5nIpgCNkHV2Q4tQd8Ik8YyMnWh-S-GSSI2NMsd5KfEOjXT07ZVAAta-Y907xCmTGCzrtfv5d9z3MKZqiMy9t6_CbqoxQwfV-HpqpID-zWOhRi9O6ncKy7Ovc5FQLj6j6/s200/hamilton-west-ancaster-dundas-strategic-voting-308.png" title="Strategic tactical voting in Hamilton West Ancaster Dundas" width="137" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 16px; text-align: center;">Strategic voting in HWAD</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
If the 2011 are redistributed into the new riding (see here), the result would have been CPC 40%, NDP 28%, Liberal 25%. But in this election, most polls are showing the Liberals have strengthened in Ontario at the expense of both other parties.<br />
<br />
Threehundredeight.com projects a Liberal victory here, with the lower bounds of their expected tally above the upper limit of the Conservative. <br />
<br />
Now there is a new local poll that confirms that result. <a href="http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/friends-of-canadian-broadcasting/">Mainstreet Research conducted a poll of the riding for Friends of Canadian Broadcasting</a>. It found the Liberals in the lead:<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHHlSWEx-vjN52APLtZfTUC7b6oxGaQOCHGBXQGm9g44LMN_qoq9LBa9YO7wcPYGSZAnfWw5hS_QRVKfP9Go5W0VetV8qPeODAEkv4GeWrTIgSYrmbSS3zjnXvNWJ19J758JHf/s1600/hamilton-west0ancaster-dundas-srategic-voting.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Strategic voting Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas" border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHHlSWEx-vjN52APLtZfTUC7b6oxGaQOCHGBXQGm9g44LMN_qoq9LBa9YO7wcPYGSZAnfWw5hS_QRVKfP9Go5W0VetV8qPeODAEkv4GeWrTIgSYrmbSS3zjnXvNWJ19J758JHf/s640/hamilton-west0ancaster-dundas-srategic-voting.png" title="Strategic voting Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas" width="488" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 16px;">Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: black; font-family: Times; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">
<div style="margin: 0px;">
Some recent posts:<br />
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.blogger.com/Strategic%20voting%20in%20Nipissing%E2%80%94Timiskaming:%20vote%20Liberal">Strategic voting in Nipissing—Timiskaming: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-perth-wellington.html">Strategic voting in Perth-Wellington: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-hamilton-west_14.html">Strategic Voting in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-bruce-grey-owen.html">Strategic voting in Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-cariboo-prince.html">Strategic voting in Cariboo-Prince George: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-central-nova.html">Strategic voting in Central Nova: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-haldimand-norfolk.html">Strategic voting in Haldimand-Norfolk: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-courtney-alberni.html">Strategic voting in Courtney-Alberni: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-oshawa-vote-ndp.html">Strategic voting in Oshawa: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-winnipeg-south-vote.html">Strategic voting in Winnipeg South</a>: vote Liberal</li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-south-okanagan-west.html">Strategic voting in South Okanagan-West Kootenay: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-misissauga-east.html">Strategic voting in Misissauga East-Cooksville: vote Liberal</a></li>
<div>
</div>
</ul>
<div>
Updates about new polls:</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-edmonton-centre.html">Strategic voting in Edmonton Centre: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.blogger.com/Strategic%20voting%20in%20Saint%20John%20Rothesay:%20vote%20Liberal">Strategic voting in Saint John Rothesay: vote Liberal</a></li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13843231.post-18995632917259185612015-10-13T18:03:00.000-04:002015-10-17T18:40:03.706-04:00Strategic voting in Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound: vote Liberal<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3sLFnQRiNP2GAYfP_d9dYGyVI1HvNjvHZH0a8Z0qFZuMju143FezP-U1jjbmi8dHeg-Se5IMrZP_Ael7fId852LL7zFbDADrB500mtoGmSxepD4TTw7yDlawnz0f8jTCQgQR_/s1600/strategic-voting-Bruce-Grey-Owen-Sound.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Strategic tactical voting in Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound" border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3sLFnQRiNP2GAYfP_d9dYGyVI1HvNjvHZH0a8Z0qFZuMju143FezP-U1jjbmi8dHeg-Se5IMrZP_Ael7fId852LL7zFbDADrB500mtoGmSxepD4TTw7yDlawnz0f8jTCQgQR_/s320/strategic-voting-Bruce-Grey-Owen-Sound.jpg" title="Strategic tactical voting in Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound" width="236" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 16px; text-align: center;"><i>Strategic voting in Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound</i></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
A new local poll reveals another riding that is surprisingly competitive: Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound, which includes the city of Owen Sound and towns such as Port Elgin, Southampton, Walkerton, Wiarton, Lucknow, Hanover, and Meaford.<br />
<br />
The riding has been reliably Conservative since 2004, sending Larry Miller to Ottawa with ever increasing margins.<br />
<br />
The voters of Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound, however, may have had enough of the Conservatives. <br />
<br />
A poll in the riding in September showed some weakness and a new poll released today confirms that:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzoJLQi7zWYsoI-BCeCSaptxthU0axnq6B9UGEabSYktdhjxVShmlv56iwXimDv67ZP9h-XcxVnTTOjqSaJV99wIaSSYSXCYFHieX6gYV04vC8TKf3SOYBDRvOCltiKyMTqMIF/s1600/Bruce-Grey-Owen-sound-strategic-voting-polls.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Strategic voting in Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound" border="0" height="133" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzoJLQi7zWYsoI-BCeCSaptxthU0axnq6B9UGEabSYktdhjxVShmlv56iwXimDv67ZP9h-XcxVnTTOjqSaJV99wIaSSYSXCYFHieX6gYV04vC8TKf3SOYBDRvOCltiKyMTqMIF/s400/Bruce-Grey-Owen-sound-strategic-voting-polls.png" title="Strategic voting in Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
To judge from today's poll, the Liberals may be within striking distance if a few more Greens and NDP back them.<br />
<br />
<div style="display: inline !important;">
Some recent posts:</div>
<ul style="orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; widows: 1;">
<li><a href="https://www.blogger.com/Strategic%20voting%20in%20Nipissing%E2%80%94Timiskaming:%20vote%20Liberal">Strategic voting in Nipissing—Timiskaming: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-perth-wellington.html">Strategic voting in Perth-Wellington: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-edmonton-mill-woods.html">Strategic voting in Edmonton Mill Woods: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: black; font-family: Times; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-hamilton-west_14.html">Strategic Voting in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: black; font-family: Times; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-bruce-grey-owen.html">Strategic voting in Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: black; font-family: Times; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-cariboo-prince.html">Strategic voting in Cariboo-Prince George: vote NDP</a></li>
<li style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: black; font-family: Times; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-central-nova.html">Strategic voting in Central Nova: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: black; font-family: Times; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-haldimand-norfolk.html">Strategic voting in Haldimand-Norfolk: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: black; font-family: Times; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-courtney-alberni.html">Strategic voting in Courtney-Alberni: vote NDP</a></li>
<li style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: black; font-family: Times; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-oshawa-vote-ndp.html">Strategic voting in Oshawa: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-winnipeg-south-vote.html">Strategic voting in Winnipeg South</a>: vote Liberal</li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-kanata-carleton.html">Strategic voting in Kanata-Carleton: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-south-okanagan-west.html">Strategic voting in South Okanagan-West Kootenay: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-misissauga-east.html">Strategic voting in Misissauga East-Cooksville: vote Liberal</a></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<div>
</div>
</ul>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13843231.post-25809974878599224632015-10-13T17:32:00.003-04:002015-10-15T14:42:55.397-04:00Strategic voting in Cariboo-Prince George: vote NDP<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRVXkBdWCFLLnw59aTBw0pazVoK7SUxztIijKvzRbCINAbUQyEbzSf0vhetMOXIVJDg80bitUJFdR_qz1nraQkWybQ8WA48jrgphSsa6oJjSeEWmwo3cWuI30pdfggurtLzFq8/s1600/cariboo-prince-george-strategic-voting-59004.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Strategic voting in Cariboo-Prince George" border="0" height="236" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRVXkBdWCFLLnw59aTBw0pazVoK7SUxztIijKvzRbCINAbUQyEbzSf0vhetMOXIVJDg80bitUJFdR_qz1nraQkWybQ8WA48jrgphSsa6oJjSeEWmwo3cWuI30pdfggurtLzFq8/s320/cariboo-prince-george-strategic-voting-59004.jpg" title="Strategic voting in Cariboo-Prince George" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 16px; text-align: center;">Strategic voting in Cariboo-Prince George</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Cariboo-Prince George is large and remote, making up some 80,000 sq. km. of central BC and includes the cities of Quesnel and Williams Lake.<br />
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Cariboo-Prince George is not a place that one would expect the Conservatives to be vulnerable—it has been reliably Conservative since the late 70s.<br />
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Recent polls, however, show that the NDP could defeat them here:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicg8WGXZsOhadBv9RigIiVLS74rAyXA9CGPCXyIAk_sxzM1ztbGZuVJQcY1BhoEW821PtVtI5ePVxAgUNbyxzGNAJaDhTvJXAz2qR7njHHXnmH100lSwhWXiOZD5IgOFrSvKNp/s1600/poll-Cariboo-Prince-George-strategic-voting.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Strategic voting in Cariboo-Prince George poll" border="0" height="66" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicg8WGXZsOhadBv9RigIiVLS74rAyXA9CGPCXyIAk_sxzM1ztbGZuVJQcY1BhoEW821PtVtI5ePVxAgUNbyxzGNAJaDhTvJXAz2qR7njHHXnmH100lSwhWXiOZD5IgOFrSvKNp/s400/poll-Cariboo-Prince-George-strategic-voting.png" title="Strategic voting in Cariboo-Prince George poll" width="400" /></a></div>
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The key is that anti-Harper voters support the NDP.<br />
<br />
Some recent posts:<br />
<ul style="orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; widows: 1;">
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-hamilton-west_14.html">Strategic Voting in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-cariboo-prince.html">Strategic voting in Cariboo-Prince George: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-central-nova.html">Strategic voting in Central Nova: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-haldimand-norfolk.html">Strategic voting in Haldimand-Norfolk: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-courtney-alberni.html">Strategic voting in Courtney-Alberni: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-oshawa-vote-ndp.html">Strategic voting in Oshawa: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-peterboroughkawarth.html">Strategic voting in Peterborough—Kawartha: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-south-okanagan-west.html">Strategic voting in South Okanagan-West Kootenay: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-kootenay-columbia-vote.html">Strategic voting Kootenay-Columbia: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-winnipeg-south-vote.html">Strategic voting in Winnipeg South</a>: vote Liberal</li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-kanata-carleton.html">Strategic voting in Kanata-Carleton: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-south-okanagan-west.html">Strategic voting in South Okanagan-West Kootenay: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-misissauga-east.html">Strategic voting in Misissauga East-Cooksville: vote Liberal</a></li>
</ul>
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</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13843231.post-42663816994347245942015-10-13T08:21:00.001-04:002015-10-13T08:21:31.038-04:00Sign contest: why is this woman giving her hard earned money to Harper<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjiGrUJjqlJ-ZFes3f0HOa1gTH_b-VdkQs1UAuWaeI1Ma8NOLtmxR4KDlqjAwLu_NBhNarNlzZZTSBmgB9TorjL4jGj6vR21Y3xKdbjlfy_FsBklUkyD4olzXHJ95AchzUmM88X/s1600/woman-giving-harper-money-w.o.sign.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="354" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjiGrUJjqlJ-ZFes3f0HOa1gTH_b-VdkQs1UAuWaeI1Ma8NOLtmxR4KDlqjAwLu_NBhNarNlzZZTSBmgB9TorjL4jGj6vR21Y3xKdbjlfy_FsBklUkyD4olzXHJ95AchzUmM88X/s640/woman-giving-harper-money-w.o.sign.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<i>Comments open</i>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13843231.post-44483371722225460412015-10-12T21:27:00.000-04:002015-10-15T14:43:03.154-04:00Strategic Voting in Central Nova: vote Liberal<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFkNxeMBx5xYQlN21FgqOqODZOhyphenhyphenMN6ZcJdy52J7c703rXWT5W0OkPvwSaAVDDYQ1hlqq4J1NqBSAUbqBLyK0UifiJqJRuQFOCwb5PYRsFeC0o-WwpgD4y2yVnReZ7BAjGugwQ/s1600/CENTRAL-NOVA-strategic-tactical-voting.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Strategic voting in Central Nova" border="0" height="185" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFkNxeMBx5xYQlN21FgqOqODZOhyphenhyphenMN6ZcJdy52J7c703rXWT5W0OkPvwSaAVDDYQ1hlqq4J1NqBSAUbqBLyK0UifiJqJRuQFOCwb5PYRsFeC0o-WwpgD4y2yVnReZ7BAjGugwQ/s200/CENTRAL-NOVA-strategic-tactical-voting.png" title="Strategic voting in Central Nova" width="200" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 16px; text-align: center;">Strategic voting in Central Nova</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
The riding of Central Nova in Nova Scotia is a riding where strategic voting could make a difference. Its long-time MP, Peter MacKay, is not standing for re-election.<br />
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MacKay had won with over 50% of the vote, and his decision to retire from politics hurts the Conservatives in Nova Scotia.<br />
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How much it has hurt can be seen in the new figures, where Eric Grenier sees 40% as the high estimate for Conservative support.</div>
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Some local polling also suggest the Cons are vulnerable here:</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkrY87OJ6JqeolExLcMyeRADJcRaq2MUabLLXfbdQ-v1bC87CYcJSpceHlmJzn68fOYeSW95AcYgENyziAZRPtfktCs5EWACRTEBZQwuJ3quKvUMuX3cJJ0J0xE3eJdZGISmjC/s1600/strategic-voting-central+nova.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Polls in Central Nova" border="0" height="112" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkrY87OJ6JqeolExLcMyeRADJcRaq2MUabLLXfbdQ-v1bC87CYcJSpceHlmJzn68fOYeSW95AcYgENyziAZRPtfktCs5EWACRTEBZQwuJ3quKvUMuX3cJJ0J0xE3eJdZGISmjC/s400/strategic-voting-central+nova.png" style="cursor: move;" title="Polls in Central Nova" width="400" /></a></div>
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Given that the polls were taken only a few days apart, but have quite different results, the results should probably be interpreted as a sign of Conservative vulnerability rather than a basis for confidence. </div>
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Nevertheless, there is every possibility that Central Nova is a riding that is ripe for the picking if a handful of NDP and Green voters support the Liberals.<br />
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Some recent posts:</div>
<ul style="orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; widows: 1;">
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-hamilton-west_14.html">Strategic Voting in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-cariboo-prince.html">Strategic voting in Cariboo-Prince George: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-central-nova.html">Strategic voting in Central Nova: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-haldimand-norfolk.html">Strategic voting in Haldimand-Norfolk: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-courtney-alberni.html">Strategic voting in Courtney-Alberni: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-oshawa-vote-ndp.html">Strategic voting in Oshawa: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-peterboroughkawarth.html">Strategic voting in Peterborough—Kawartha: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-south-okanagan-west.html">Strategic voting in South Okanagan-West Kootenay: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-kootenay-columbia-vote.html">Strategic voting Kootenay-Columbia: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-winnipeg-south-vote.html">Tactical voting in Winnipeg South</a>: vote Liberal</li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-kanata-carleton.html">Strategic voting in Kanata-Carleton: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-misissauga-east.html">Strategic voting in Misissauga East-Cooksville: vote Liberal</a></li>
</ul>
<ul>
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</div>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13843231.post-73377614008250473342015-10-12T15:12:00.001-04:002015-10-15T14:43:08.658-04:00Strategic voting in Haldimand-Norfolk: vote LiberalEric Grenier's <a href="http://www.threehundredeight.com/">threehundredeight.com</a> is a great resource for strategic voters, as this map illustrates.<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvtwK9taNvaGuMJ4wSctpmGGAqYsfgVG-MuaqG895stwL0Pa88JtPZFBEBbgN0e5fq0EsWHGGO0goxnWgFxwNSppUbr-oEKsipk8JLBx10ORWwQe1uVaELpqJx0Oem3gq8yqU0/s1600/haldimand-norfolk-strategic-tactical-voting.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Strategic voting in Haldimand-Norfolk" border="0" height="285" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvtwK9taNvaGuMJ4wSctpmGGAqYsfgVG-MuaqG895stwL0Pa88JtPZFBEBbgN0e5fq0EsWHGGO0goxnWgFxwNSppUbr-oEKsipk8JLBx10ORWwQe1uVaELpqJx0Oem3gq8yqU0/s320/haldimand-norfolk-strategic-tactical-voting.png" title="Strategic voting in Haldimand-Norfolk" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 16px; text-align: center;">Strategic voting in Haldimand-Norfolk</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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The riding in question is Haldimand-Norfolk on the shores of Lake Erie, which includes Caledonia, Dunnville, Hagersville, Jarvis and Cayuga in Haldimand and Simcoe and Port Dover in Norfolk.<br />
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Grenier's figures are helpful because they project what he estimates on the basis of the most recent polls and how they might factor into different ridings. <br />
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Here his best guess is that the Conservatives will take the riding by a couple percent. A modicum of strategic voting here, however, could push the Liberals over the victory line. Strategic voters should therefore support the Liberals here.<br />
<br />
Some recent posts:<br />
<ul>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-hamilton-west_14.html">Strategic Voting in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-haldimand-norfolk.html">Strategic voting in Haldimand-Norfolk: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-courtney-alberni.html">Strategic voting in Courtney-Alberni: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-oshawa-vote-ndp.html">Strategic voting in Oshawa: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-peterboroughkawarth.html">Strategic voting in Peterborough—Kawartha: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-south-okanagan-west.html">Strategic voting in South Okanagan-West Kootenay: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-kootenay-columbia-vote.html">Strategic voting Kootenay-Columbia: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-winnipeg-south-vote.html">Strategic voting in Winnipeg South</a>: vote Liberal</li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-misissauga-east.html">Strategic voting in Misissauga East-Cooksville: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li></li>
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</div>
</ul>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13843231.post-73765963906107501422015-10-12T11:53:00.001-04:002015-10-12T11:53:42.747-04:00Strategic voting in North Island-Powell River: vote NDPThe teams over at votetogether.ca have begun making recommendations in dozens of ridings for the up-coming election. They have recommended that <a href="http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/59037/north-islandpowell-river/">strategic voters in North Island-Powell River</a> support vote the NDP. In addition to other factors they point to an <a href="http://www.votetogether.ca/pages/localpolls/">Environics poll</a> from Sept. 19 in which the NDP (41%) were well ahead of the Conservatives (27%), the Liberals (18%), and the Greens.Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13843231.post-40856066734116685692015-10-12T11:32:00.001-04:002015-10-15T16:26:49.893-04:00Strategic voting in Nanaimo-Ladysmith: vote NDP<br />
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A new poll for BC from <a href="http://www.insightswest.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Final_Dogwood_Graphics.pdf">Insights West</a> (pdf) confirms that <a href="http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/59018/nanaimoladysmith/">strategic voters in Nanaimo-Ladysmith</a> should vote NDP. Here are their poll results:</div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhH1Edydt9vmiZBCr1zf2PhdT5G3_HX9I-E_uVuCo7RYpLfdfnlq4St9qVotdVuvv11ohDVyxyzTiq3a49jzelMtiaR4F9X1JYFydWJu5PUyAbw_dkwKClFveOEg_nOLXUn1DRh/s1600/Nanaimo-Ladysmith-poll-strategic-voting.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Strategic voting in Nanaimo-Ladysmith" border="0" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhH1Edydt9vmiZBCr1zf2PhdT5G3_HX9I-E_uVuCo7RYpLfdfnlq4St9qVotdVuvv11ohDVyxyzTiq3a49jzelMtiaR4F9X1JYFydWJu5PUyAbw_dkwKClFveOEg_nOLXUn1DRh/s640/Nanaimo-Ladysmith-poll-strategic-voting.png" title="Strategic voting in Nanaimo-Ladysmith" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Poll in Nanaimo-Ladysmith</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<br />
The good people at votetogether.ca have begun making their recommendations, which include one for <a href="http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/59018/nanaimoladysmith/">strategic voting in Nanaimo-Ladysmith</a>.<br />
<br />
Some of their other recommendations:<br />
<div>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/48004/calgary-centre/">Strategic voting in Calgary Centre</a>: vote Liberal</li>
<li><a href="http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/48005/calgary-confederation/">Strategic voting in Calgary Confederation</a>: vote Liberal</li>
<li><a href="http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/59010/cowichanmalahatlangford/">Strategic voting in Cowichan—Malahat—Langford</a>: vote NDP</li>
<li><a href="http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/46005/elmwoodtranscona/">Strategic voting in Elmwood—Transcona</a>: vote NDP</li>
<li><a href="http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/35024/eglintonlawrence/">Strategic voting in Eglinton—Lawrence</a>: vote Liberal</li>
<li><a href="http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/35028/etobicokelakeshore/">Strategic voting in Etobicoke—Lakeshore</a>: vote Liberal</li>
<li><a href="http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/13003/fredericton/">Strategic voting in Fredericton</a>: vote Liberal</li>
<li><a href="http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/59015/kootenaycolumbia/">Strategic voting in Kootenay—Columbia</a>: vote NDP</li>
<li><a href="http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/35052/london-north-centre/">Strategic voting in London North Centre</a>: vote Liberal</li>
<li><a href="http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/59018/nanaimoladysmith/">Strategic voting in Nanaimo—Ladysmith</a>: vote NDP</li>
<li><a href="http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/59037/north-islandpowell-river/">Strategic voting in North Island—Powell River</a>: vote NDP</li>
<li><a href="http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/59023/port-moodycoquitlam/">Strategic voting in Port Moody—Coquitlam</a>: vote NDP</li>
<li><a href="http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/47011/saskatoonuniversity/">Strategic voting in Saskatoon—University</a>: vote NDP</li>
<div>
</div>
<li><a href="http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/46014/winnipeg-south-centre/">Strategic voting in Winnipeg South Centre</a>: vote Liberal</li>
<li><a href="http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/35112/waterloo/">Strategic voting in Waterloo</a>: vote Liberal</li>
<li><a href="http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/35115/willowdale/">Strategic voting in Willowdale</a>: vote Liberal</li>
</ul>
</div>
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13843231.post-67579810245493122072015-10-12T09:45:00.000-04:002015-10-17T18:49:44.295-04:00Strategic voting in Courtney-Alberni: vote NDP<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEielzRi9EysZswA5JeYG-NVBHVQpJGJViHUGoS6STIqRxkR0trcecBc6dsyHul4uYlDUp2wCnz_8sHtEQj0XuSott7oYv9MkhshcdEztxdQez__A0YvhLLsZ28U66-uK7kHQA53/s1600/courtney-alberni-strategic-tactical-voting.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Strategic tactical voting in Courtney-Alberni" border="0" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEielzRi9EysZswA5JeYG-NVBHVQpJGJViHUGoS6STIqRxkR0trcecBc6dsyHul4uYlDUp2wCnz_8sHtEQj0XuSott7oYv9MkhshcdEztxdQez__A0YvhLLsZ28U66-uK7kHQA53/s320/courtney-alberni-strategic-tactical-voting.png" title="Strategic tactical voting in Courtney-Alberni" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 16px; text-align: center;">Strategic voting in Courtney-Alberni</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Courtney-Alberni is a new riding that combines part of what used to be Nanaimo—Alberni (69%) and Vancouver Island North (31%). The riding includes Port Alberni and Courtney (obviously), as well as Parksville and<br />
<br />
The Conservative candidate in Courtney-Alberni is John Duncan, who took 46% of vote in 2011, over the 2nd place NDPer with 43%.<br />
<br />
The new riding is slightly less favourable to Duncan. If the 2011 votes are redistributed within its boundaries, the Conservative would have received 45%, the NDP 41%, the Greens and Liberals both at 7%.<br />
<br />
By itself this should mean that strategic voters should support the NDP.<br />
<br />
As it happens, a recent poll conducted by Insights West (Sept. 13) confirms that. It found that support in the riding at: Con. 33%, NDP 39%, Lib. 13%, Green 12%.<br />
<br />
<b>Update, Oct. 15</b>. A new poll for BC from <a href="http://www.insightswest.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Final_Dogwood_Graphics.pdf">Insights West</a> (pdf) confirms that strategic voters in Courtney-Alberni should vote NDP:<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj32Xyjl9fHOAiPAf8DeOUGz7clzfQbsPReQNp0zvcIuUcMpNYKd6kiZ5mUwBi4KUMXtH9cfcfH2uIldPh4hClbDbT224TLajL5OydEv9sNtAkLnlucyHj78IafMCbxQtizW-2L/s1600/Courtenay-Alberni-poll-strategic-voting.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Strategic voting in Courtney-Alberni" border="0" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj32Xyjl9fHOAiPAf8DeOUGz7clzfQbsPReQNp0zvcIuUcMpNYKd6kiZ5mUwBi4KUMXtH9cfcfH2uIldPh4hClbDbT224TLajL5OydEv9sNtAkLnlucyHj78IafMCbxQtizW-2L/s640/Courtenay-Alberni-poll-strategic-voting.png" title="Strategic voting in Courtney-Alberni" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Polls in Courtney-Alberni</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<br />
Again it is fairly clear that the NDP have the best choice for strategic voters who want to avoid vote splitting and defeat the Conservatives.<br />
<br />
Votetogether.ca is expected to make a call for <a href="https://www.votetogether.ca/riding/59009/courtenayalberni/">strategic voting in Courney-Alberni</a> soon.<br />
<br />
<b>Update</b>. A new poll (Oct. 13) shows that strategic voters should support the NDP.<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2CBbBMAGQBVRTilNQvohPwDk-UoH3U8cViTxXGG_r3-zbpieb94R7JvyEJJejl1oFmL9dpPj-rw693zvVKX-Xl0fdRbrcRpYsX4jxEgIAs4IrnzEFkf5K0Cd18RzZSeIODDEx/s1600/courtenay-alberni-srategic-voting.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Strategic voting in Courtney-Alberni" border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2CBbBMAGQBVRTilNQvohPwDk-UoH3U8cViTxXGG_r3-zbpieb94R7JvyEJJejl1oFmL9dpPj-rw693zvVKX-Xl0fdRbrcRpYsX4jxEgIAs4IrnzEFkf5K0Cd18RzZSeIODDEx/s640/courtenay-alberni-srategic-voting.png" title="Strategic voting in Courtney-Alberni" width="488" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">New poll in Courtney-Alberni</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<br />
Recent posts:<br />
<ul>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-haldimand-norfolk.html">Strategic voting in Haldimand-Norfolk: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-courtney-alberni.html">Strategic voting in Courtney-Alberni: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-oshawa-vote-ndp.html">Strategic voting in Oshawa: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-peterboroughkawarth.html">Strategic voting in Peterborough—Kawartha: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-south-okanagan-west.html">Strategic voting in South Okanagan-West Kootenay: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-kootenay-columbia-vote.html">Strategic voting Kootenay-Columbia: vote NDP</a></li>
</ul>
<div>
For a full list of my calls, see <a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/p/strategic-voting-in-2015-canadian.html">here</a>.<br />
<br />
<br /></div>
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13843231.post-20439059025438613892015-10-12T06:59:00.002-04:002015-10-12T10:34:42.849-04:00Strategic voting in Oshawa: vote NDP<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUX_deFXowahy9Jewjx-aCn3_IxV_BXZ4h95gijRLvJ9nGTA-lBIxcD55XMDwZYkRmC5OvKvywhrrZGQr1xX2JQFTFqDA1si15WBE3Z8A5rCfX8r9VmLda4sd452DTCUfvLCM1/s1600/strategic-tactical-voting-Oshawa.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Strategic voting in Oshawa" border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUX_deFXowahy9Jewjx-aCn3_IxV_BXZ4h95gijRLvJ9nGTA-lBIxcD55XMDwZYkRmC5OvKvywhrrZGQr1xX2JQFTFqDA1si15WBE3Z8A5rCfX8r9VmLda4sd452DTCUfvLCM1/s320/strategic-tactical-voting-Oshawa.jpg" title="Strategic voting in Oshawa" width="198" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 16px; text-align: center;">Strategic voting in Oshawa</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
The riding of Oshawa is another one where strategic voting could make a difference. It's boundaries have changed slightly, losing territory to Durham and gaining it from Whitby—Oshawa.<br />
<br />
The 2011 results were solidly Conservative; if they are redistributed according to the new riding boundaries, they'd be: Con (51%), NDP (37%), Lib 8%, Green 4%.<br />
<br />
<div>
There is no local polling to help the strategic voter out here, but recent national polls seem to suggest that the Conservatives are down in Ontario and the Liberals are up. If strategically voting Liberals and Greens in Oshawa can swim against that tide and vote NDP, there is a good prospect of defeating the Conservatives in Oshawa.<br />
<br />
Some recent posts:<br />
<ul>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-courtney-alberni.html">Strategic voting in Courtney-Alberni: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-oshawa-vote-ndp.html">Strategic voting in Oshawa: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-peterboroughkawarth.html">Strategic voting in Peterborough—Kawartha: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-south-okanagan-west.html">Strategic voting in South Okanagan-West Kootenay: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-kootenay-columbia-vote.html">Strategic voting Kootenay-Columbia: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-kanata-carleton.html">Strategic voting in Kanata-Carleton: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-north.html">Strategic voting in North Okanagan—Shuswap: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-cowichanmalahatlang.html">Strategic voting in Cowichan—Malahat—Langford: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://draftybuckets.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-burnaby.html">Strategic voting in Burnaby North—Seymour: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-brantford-brant.html">Strategic voting in Brantford-Brant: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-essex-vote-ndp.html">Strategic voting in Essex: vote NDP</a></li>
</ul>
<div>
For an overview of strategic voting posts, see <a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/p/strategic-voting-in-2015-canadian.html">here</a>.</div>
</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13843231.post-14284176227394300472015-10-12T06:20:00.002-04:002015-10-12T06:29:24.253-04:00Vote together makes strategic recommendations in sixteen ridingsThe good people over at votetogether.ca is making the following strategic choices for voters in the 2015 election:<br />
<br />
Alberta<br />
<ul>
<li> <a href="http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/48004/calgary-centre/">Strategic voting in Calgary Centre</a>: vote Liberal</li>
<li> <a href="http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/48005/calgary-confederation/">Strategic voting in Calgary Confederation</a>: vote Liberal</li>
</ul>
British Columbia<br />
<ul>
<li> <a href="http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/59010/cowichanmalahatlangford/">Strategic voting in Cowichan—Malahat—Langford</a>: vote NDP</li>
<li> <a href="http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/59015/kootenaycolumbia/">Strategic voting in Kootenay—Columbia</a>: vote NDP</li>
<li> <a href="http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/59018/nanaimoladysmith/">Strategic voting in Nanaimo—Ladysmith</a>: vote NDP</li>
<li> <a href="http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/59037/north-islandpowell-river/">Strategic voting in North Island—Powell River</a>: vote NDP</li>
<li> <a href="http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/59023/port-moodycoquitlam/">Strategic voting in Port Moody—Coquitlam</a>: vote NDP</li>
</ul>
Manitoba<br />
<ul>
<li> <a href="http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/46005/elmwoodtranscona/">Strategic voting in Elmwood—Transcona</a>: vote NDP</li>
<li> <a href="http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/46014/winnipeg-south-centre/">Strategic voting in Winnipeg South Centre</a>: vote Liberal</li>
</ul>
New Brunswick<br />
<ul>
<li> <a href="http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/13003/fredericton/">Strategic voting in Fredericton</a>: vote Liberal</li>
</ul>
Ontario<br />
<ul>
<li> <a href="http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/35024/eglintonlawrence/">Strategic voting in Eglinton—Lawrence</a>: vote Liberal</li>
<li> <a href="http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/35028/etobicokelakeshore/">Strategic voting in Etobicoke—Lakeshore</a>: vote Liberal</li>
<li> <a href="http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/35052/london-north-centre/">Strategic voting in London North Centre</a>: vote Liberal</li>
<li> <a href="http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/35112/waterloo/">Strategic voting in Waterloo</a>: vote Liberal</li>
<li> <a href="http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/35115/willowdale/">Strategic voting in Willowdale</a>: vote Liberal</li>
</ul>
Saskatchewan<br />
<ul>
<li> <a href="http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/47011/saskatoonuniversity/">Strategic voting in Saskatoon—University</a>: vote NDP</li>
</ul>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
For my list of other ridings, see <a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/p/strategic-voting-in-2015-canadian.html">my summary of strategic voting recommendations</a></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13843231.post-6503511828766568602015-10-11T14:19:00.001-04:002015-10-13T16:00:37.510-04:00Strategic voting in Peterborough—Kawartha: vote LiberalPeterborough—Kawartha is a new riding made up mostly from the old riding of Peterborough. It includes (obviously) Peterborough and its environs.<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_hQmKACI0_uCfbKWDXxol0LPG7tKr0RN55fnhNqpY0K4AesNDdjxhHoUYlY-g6140gIe6y1Q4HqRZ8Hi5JbpvLk5frC-fwDbHJaQEYwqDtiun90No8CezWDewfJgsTDUqUalP/s1600/strategic-voting-Peterborough%25E2%2580%2594Kawartha.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Strategic voting in Peterborough—Kawartha" border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_hQmKACI0_uCfbKWDXxol0LPG7tKr0RN55fnhNqpY0K4AesNDdjxhHoUYlY-g6140gIe6y1Q4HqRZ8Hi5JbpvLk5frC-fwDbHJaQEYwqDtiun90No8CezWDewfJgsTDUqUalP/s320/strategic-voting-Peterborough%25E2%2580%2594Kawartha.jpg" title="Strategic voting in Peterborough—Kawartha" width="236" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 16px; text-align: center;">Dean Del Mastro convicted</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Strategic voters in Peterborough—Kawartha have good reason to want to avoid vote splitting and change parties in this election. Its Conservative MP for the last decade has been the odious Dean Del who was found guilty last year of electoral corruption and tampering wiht documents and sent to prison.<br />
<br />
In the last election, Delmastro was elected quite easily with 47% of the vote, followed by the Liberal with 32% and the NDP with 14%.<br />
<br />
Two polls have been conducted in the riding since the writ was dropped:<br />
<ul>
<li><a href="http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/28e96b32-7fd5-417c-ab7f-cf1245030ecbPeterborough-Kawartha%20News%20Release%20(2015%2009%2025)%20Forum%20Research.pdf">Forum Research (September 24)</a>: Con (34%), NDP (24%), Lib (37%) and Green (4%) </li>
<li><a href="http://www.thepeterboroughexaminer.com/2015/09/09/liberals-have-edge-in-peterborough-kawartha-riding-according-to-nanos-poll-commissioned-by-friends-of-canadian-broadcasting-as-part-of-campaign-to-save-cbc-funding">Nanos Research (August 26, 2015)</a>: Con (29%), NDP (27%), Lib (41%), Green (4%)</li>
</ul>
<div>
Both these polls and its history suggest that strategic voters should support the Liberals.<br />
<br />
<b>Update</b>. More polls confirm the call. From <a href="http://.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2015_by_constituency">wikipedia summary of local election polls</a>:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhp4hnq-5awARY90aDnMkI4cDcS8Oeh3LKWP3MVDSQ7KeqIdBHmm8zLdcdLSK60JUCeyQCZ5rSy9nY_kiv1NuuI8bPiIy2iRB16ZrzXcgVzfBTlCi_wv4RNwgFn9KZq6t7y8TRX/s1600/polls-Peterborough-Kawartha.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="150" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhp4hnq-5awARY90aDnMkI4cDcS8Oeh3LKWP3MVDSQ7KeqIdBHmm8zLdcdLSK60JUCeyQCZ5rSy9nY_kiv1NuuI8bPiIy2iRB16ZrzXcgVzfBTlCi_wv4RNwgFn9KZq6t7y8TRX/s400/polls-Peterborough-Kawartha.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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See Votetogether.ca's page to confirm that <a href="http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/35084/peterboroughkawartha/">strategic voters in Peterborough—Kawartha</a> should vote Liberal.<br />
<br />
Some recent posts:<br />
<ul>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-peterboroughkawarth.html">Strategic voting in Peterborough—Kawartha: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-south-okanagan-west.html">Strategic voting in South Okanagan-West Kootenay: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-kootenay-columbia-vote.html">Strategic voting Kootenay-Columbia: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-kanata-carleton.html">Strategic voting in Kanata-Carleton: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-north.html">Strategic voting in North Okanagan—Shuswap: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-cowichanmalahatlang.html">Strategic voting in Cowichan—Malahat—Langford: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://draftybuckets.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-burnaby.html">Strategic voting in Burnaby North—Seymour: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-brantford-brant.html">Strategic voting in Brantford-Brant: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-essex-vote-ndp.html">Strategic voting in Essex: vote NDP</a></li>
</ul>
<div>
For an overview of strategic voting posts, see <a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/p/strategic-voting-in-2015-canadian.html">here</a>.<br />
<div>
<h4>
Votetogether.ca's recommendations:</h4>
</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/48004/calgary-centre/">Strategic voting in Calgary Centre</a>: vote Liberal</li>
<li><a href="http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/48005/calgary-confederation/">Strategic voting in Calgary Confederation</a>: vote Liberal</li>
<li><a href="http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/59010/cowichanmalahatlangford/">Strategic voting in Cowichan—Malahat—Langford</a>: vote NDP</li>
<li><a href="http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/46005/elmwoodtranscona/">Strategic voting in Elmwood—Transcona</a>: vote NDP</li>
<li><a href="http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/35024/eglintonlawrence/">Strategic voting in Eglinton—Lawrence</a>: vote Liberal</li>
<li><a href="http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/35028/etobicokelakeshore/">Strategic voting in Etobicoke—Lakeshore</a>: vote Liberal</li>
<li><a href="http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/13003/fredericton/">Strategic voting in Fredericton</a>: vote Liberal</li>
<li><a href="http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/59015/kootenaycolumbia/">Strategic voting in Kootenay—Columbia</a>: vote NDP</li>
<li><a href="http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/35052/london-north-centre/">Strategic voting in London North Centre</a>: vote Liberal</li>
<li><a href="http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/59018/nanaimoladysmith/">Strategic voting in Nanaimo—Ladysmith</a>: vote NDP</li>
<li><a href="http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/59037/north-islandpowell-river/">Strategic voting in North Island—Powell River</a>: vote NDP</li>
<li><a href="http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/59023/port-moodycoquitlam/">Strategic voting in Port Moody—Coquitlam</a>: vote NDP</li>
<li><a href="http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/47011/saskatoonuniversity/">Strategic voting in Saskatoon—University</a>: vote NDP</li>
<div>
</div>
<li><a href="http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/46014/winnipeg-south-centre/">Strategic voting in Winnipeg South Centre</a>: vote Liberal</li>
<li><a href="http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/35112/waterloo/">Strategic voting in Waterloo</a>: vote Liberal</li>
<li><a href="http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/35115/willowdale/">Strategic voting in Willowdale</a>: vote Liberal</li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13843231.post-44238966711771337762015-10-11T10:26:00.001-04:002015-10-15T16:34:38.736-04:00Strategic voting in South Okanagan-West Kootenay: vote NDP<div>
<b>Update for Oct. 15. </b>A new poll for BC from <a href="http://www.insightswest.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Final_Dogwood_Graphics.pdf">Insights West</a> (pdf) confirms that strategic voters in South Okanagan-West Kootenay should vote NDP:<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFzygREGlFkeB5v6V2jsKNuKwGc9UG3doeYiPWyuus6YbxKDO6hB9kK7BucYlBqsNhKLpWE5qbvACD-l-yJCWL_H1qPSf-MfjOfuvmY8krBn7UEgQ0KkD2qb8Hqi95Vam28mJS/s1600/South-Okanagan-West-Kootenay-poll-strategic-voting.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Strategic voting in South Okanagan-West Kootenay" border="0" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFzygREGlFkeB5v6V2jsKNuKwGc9UG3doeYiPWyuus6YbxKDO6hB9kK7BucYlBqsNhKLpWE5qbvACD-l-yJCWL_H1qPSf-MfjOfuvmY8krBn7UEgQ0KkD2qb8Hqi95Vam28mJS/s640/South-Okanagan-West-Kootenay-poll-strategic-voting.png" title="Strategic voting in South Okanagan-West Kootenay" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Polls for South Okanagan-West Kootenay: vote NDP</td></tr>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXp7wjBMZc7ioMLdkwNxpWA-2Qp4Np1-WDEvgz1aNfQMMkhYScjF9dBW91vz0LxZ6UrR-lvKJBFx46iq0iWAs2qCJFfbuder4wgi-B5A3MyPEUl3jWZF9rMp8AxWOjEXfK9Auf/s1600/strategic-tactical-voting-South+Okanagan-West+Kootenay-59029.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Strategic voting in South Okanagan-West Kootenay" border="0" height="236" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXp7wjBMZc7ioMLdkwNxpWA-2Qp4Np1-WDEvgz1aNfQMMkhYScjF9dBW91vz0LxZ6UrR-lvKJBFx46iq0iWAs2qCJFfbuder4wgi-B5A3MyPEUl3jWZF9rMp8AxWOjEXfK9Auf/s320/strategic-tactical-voting-South+Okanagan-West+Kootenay-59029.jpg" title="Strategic voting in South Okanagan-West Kootenay" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 16px; text-align: center;">Strategic voting in South Okanagan-West Kootenay</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
The riding of South Okanagan-West Kootenay in a new riding that includes the cities Castlegar, Grand Forks, Oliver, Osoyoos, Penticton, and Trail. That is, it is made up of parts of the old British Columbia Southern Interior, which NDP Alex Atamanenko had represented, and Okanagan-Coquihalla, which had voted Conservative.</div>
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If one redistributes the 2011 votes in the new ridings (as is done <a href="http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/59029.php">here</a>), the results would be Con. 45%, NDP 39%, Lib. 7%, Green 8%. This suggests that avoiding vote splitting is key here, given that Atamanenko has retired.</div>
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<div>
A local poll conducted by Insights West (September 13) suggests that the NDP are well positioned to prevail. It found support to be Con (33), NDP (42), Lib. (18), Green (4).</div>
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In order to prevent a Conservative steal through vote-splitting, strategic voters in South Okanagan-West Kootenay should support the NDP.<br />
<br />
Some recent posts:<br />
<ul>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-south-okanagan-west.html">Strategic voting in South Okanagan-West Kootenay: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-kootenay-columbia-vote.html">Strategic voting Kootenay-Columbia: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-kanata-carleton.html">Strategic voting in Kanata-Carleton: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-north.html">Strategic voting in North Okanagan—Shuswap: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-cowichanmalahatlang.html">Strategic voting in Cowichan—Malahat—Langford: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://draftybuckets.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-burnaby.html">Strategic voting in Burnaby North—Seymour: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-brantford-brant.html">Strategic voting in Brantford-Brant: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-essex-vote-ndp.html">Strategic voting in Essex: vote NDP</a></li>
</ul>
<div>
For an overview of strategic voting posts, see <a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/p/strategic-voting-in-2015-canadian.html">here</a>.</div>
</div>
</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13843231.post-71627113205622232352015-10-11T09:07:00.001-04:002015-10-12T05:55:21.947-04:00Strategic voting Kootenay-Columbia: vote NDP<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmrLAzbn6394E_5otpd4VFc80kE_kPqqFRDSQuSB7AGMpHjCykSqmFUzkCZ5OfNwiI2JWM4l9RbRU3kHNAzT3cIW7otn_7D6LlxL5OCN7pvX3K9bbY46Ib5lYPn3491DNH1UHb/s1600/kootenay-columbia-strategic-voting-tactical-voting-59012.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Strategic voting in Kootenay-Columbia" border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmrLAzbn6394E_5otpd4VFc80kE_kPqqFRDSQuSB7AGMpHjCykSqmFUzkCZ5OfNwiI2JWM4l9RbRU3kHNAzT3cIW7otn_7D6LlxL5OCN7pvX3K9bbY46Ib5lYPn3491DNH1UHb/s320/kootenay-columbia-strategic-voting-tactical-voting-59012.gif" title="Tactical voting in Kootenay-Columbia" width="266" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 16px; text-align: center;">Strategic voting in Kootenay-Columbia</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
As I pointed out in my post on <a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-north.html">strategic voting in North Okanagan—Shuswap</a>, some might be surprised that some of these ridings in the BC Interior are competitive enough. <br />
<br />
Such is also the case in Kootenay-Columbia, which includes Cranbrook, Revelstoke, Kimberley, Fernie, Golden, Sparwood, and Nelson. In the last election, vote splitting wasn't a factor: the Conservative won with 50% of the vote, compared to 39% NDP, 4% Liberal, and 6% Green.<br />
<br />
A redrawing of the riding, however, has brought 4000 net NDP votes into the riding and this could make a difference. <br />
<br />
An <a href="http://www.votetogether.ca/pages/localpolls/">Environics<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Poll from September 19, 2015</a> placed the NDP and Conservatives in a dead head: Con (37%), NDP (37%), Lib. (15%), and Green (11%).<br />
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This suggests that to avoid vote splitting, strategic voters should support the NDP.<br />
<br />
<b>Update</b>. Votetogether.ca has now endorsed the NDP for <a href="http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/59015/kootenaycolumbia/">strategic voters in Kootenay-Columbia</a>.<br />
<br />
Some recent posts:<br />
<ul>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-south-okanagan-west.html">Strategic voting in South Okanagan-West Kootenay: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-kootenay-columbia-vote.html">Strategic voting Kootenay-Columbia: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-kanata-carleton.html">Strategic voting in Kanata-Carleton: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-north.html">Strategic voting in North Okanagan—Shuswap: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-cowichanmalahatlang.html">Strategic voting in Cowichan—Malahat—Langford: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://draftybuckets.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-burnaby.html">Strategic voting in Burnaby North—Seymour: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-brantford-brant.html">Strategic voting in Brantford-Brant: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-essex-vote-ndp.html">Strategic voting in Essex: vote NDP</a></li>
</ul>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13843231.post-27430513294928602022015-10-10T16:32:00.002-04:002015-10-11T10:28:56.957-04:00Strategic voting in Kanata-Carleton: vote Liberal<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhru-dEwyuLDtSetmFZ-sagy1MUFhfgrTcM_kystvbPdVd6AH9PghG5wyr99VK1rRxhie9vNNaA1D7wB9LvYxZq5jMojxzmt7KbF4WnnU6fhOZ2L0J0E6F5YHlYFEAYeNZPkcQr/s1600/kanata-carleton-strategic-tactical-voting-35041.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Strategic tactical voting in Kanata-Carleton" border="0" height="235" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhru-dEwyuLDtSetmFZ-sagy1MUFhfgrTcM_kystvbPdVd6AH9PghG5wyr99VK1rRxhie9vNNaA1D7wB9LvYxZq5jMojxzmt7KbF4WnnU6fhOZ2L0J0E6F5YHlYFEAYeNZPkcQr/s320/kanata-carleton-strategic-tactical-voting-35041.jpg" title="Strategic tactical voting in Kanata-Carleton" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 16px; text-align: center;">Strategic voting in Kanata-Carleton</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
The riding of Kanata-Carleton in Ottawa is a new riding formed out of pieces of the old riding of Carleton—Mississippi Mills, which has been a fairly safe Conservative. Despite this, it is shaping up to be a close race. (<a href="http://ottawacitizen.com/news/politics/denley-why-the-conservatives-are-in-trouble-in-ottawa">See a news story about this here</a>).<br />
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In the last election, Gordon O'Connor received 57% of the vote, followed by the Liberal with 24%, the NDP with 15%, and the Green with 4%. Gordon O'Connor, however, decided not to stand for re-election.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://ottawacitizen.com/news/politics/at-least-three-ottawa-area-ridings-up-for-grabs">A recently conducted poll</a> suggests that this is a tight race between <a href="http://www.meettheharpergang.com/blog/2015/09/13/if-you-criticize-conservative-candidate-walter-pamic-you-better-be-ready-for-threats">Conservative Walter Pamic</a> (whose past militant anti-unionism has become controversial) and Liberal Karen McCrimmon.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBVaz04iy4TRp31gfo-zen3UuI916qz-gOUiGu9pEq9P2MfC_Rg_dUfYE5zZUlJIlnD1-1WNp_KJhTCL8yHiEMAt2uLhxD_3GzJY87foWp8lp8L89Fq2YYZrNdwZ0NWO5mSoaA/s1600/strategic-tactical-voting-kanata-carleton.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="85" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBVaz04iy4TRp31gfo-zen3UuI916qz-gOUiGu9pEq9P2MfC_Rg_dUfYE5zZUlJIlnD1-1WNp_KJhTCL8yHiEMAt2uLhxD_3GzJY87foWp8lp8L89Fq2YYZrNdwZ0NWO5mSoaA/s320/strategic-tactical-voting-kanata-carleton.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Clearly strategic voters will want to support the Liberals here and avoid the vote splitting.<br />
<br />
Some recent posts:<br />
<ul>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-south-okanagan-west.html">Strategic voting in South Okanagan-West Kootenay: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-kootenay-columbia-vote.html">Strategic voting Kootenay-Columbia: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-kanata-carleton.html">Strategic voting in Kanata-Carleton: vote Liberal</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-north.html">Strategic voting in North Okanagan—Shuswap: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-cowichanmalahatlang.html">Strategic voting in Cowichan—Malahat—Langford: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://draftybuckets.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-burnaby.html">Strategic voting in Burnaby North—Seymour: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-brantford-brant.html">Strategic voting in Brantford-Brant: vote NDP</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.ca/2015/10/strategic-voting-in-essex-vote-ndp.html">Strategic voting in Essex: vote NDP</a></li>
</ul>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com