Tuesday, October 20, 2015

A few interesting statistics

The election result in the end probably showed that strategic voting in most ridings was unnecessary or, indeed, count-productive.

But I take some pleasure in the following statistics:
  • my post recommending that strategic voters in Edmonton Mill Woods vote Liberal appeared at the top of the google search for 'strategic voting Mill Woods'
  • I received 89 visits to this page from Edmonton
  • the Liberal candidate was elected by a margin of 80 votes
Elsewhere my effect was less noticeable.

Sunday, October 18, 2015

What were they thinking?

Pundits are puzzled by the decision of the Fords to associate themselves with a controversial and reviled figure.  The damage to the Ford brand could be significant.

The Ford brothers with admirer at last night's Conservative rally.

Friday, October 16, 2015

Strategic voting in Perth-Wellington: vote Liberal

If polls are to be believed, the Liberals are dominating in Ontario. Grenier's poll tracker projects the Liberal support in Ontario at 43% and the Conservatives down to 31%:
Polls and Strategic voting Perth-Wellington
Ontario Polls from Poll Tracker
This shift against Harper is showing up on the ground in ridings that one would normally assume are fairly safe, such as Perth-Wellington, where a local poll conducted by Mainstreet Research for Postmedia, which found a neck-and-neck race between the Conservatives and Liberals:

Polling in Perth-Wellington

If this poll is correct, strategic voters in Perth-Wellington should vote for the Liberals.

The riding includes such towns as Stratford, St. Marys, Elora, Fergus, and Minto.

Some recent posts:

Thursday, October 15, 2015

Wednesday, October 14, 2015

Conservative: Trudeau will mandate brothels and drugs

The Harper campaign has surely now jumped the shark:


Young: "Do you want communities in Oakville that are quite and safe, where our largest investment, our homes, retain their value, as they do now.  Or communities where a federal Liberal government mandates legally protected brothels with madams and all that goes with that (audience groans) — because the Liberals have promised legalize the selling of women in Canada — and mandates marijuana stores, like in Vancouver where there are more illegal marijuana stores than Starbucks, and mandates drug injection sites with no local input from the neighbours.  One day most of plan to sell our homes. What family would invest their life savings in a home near a marijuana store, a brothel, or an injection site…'

Calgary Confederation, Skyview, and Centre: strategic voters should support the Liberals

Update, Oct. 17.   A new poll in Calgary Centre has the Liberals and Conservatives neck-and-neck.  Strategic voters could make the difference.

Strategic voting in Calgary Confederation, Skyview, and Centre
Calgary Conferation,
Calgary Skyview,
Calgary Centre
This election has a few more surprises than most, and the fracturing of the Conservatives' fortress in Calgary might be one of them.

news story from the CBC reports that three Calgary ridings are surprisingly competitive: Calgary Centre, Calgary Confederation, and Calgary Skyview.

This is also the interpretation of Eric Grenier over at threehundredeight.com.  His current projections for the Calgary ridings paint three ridings red: Calgary Centre, Calgary Confederation, and Calgary Skyview

Strategic voting in Calgary Confederation, Skyview, and Centre
Calgary projections from threehundredeight.com
The striking thing is not merely that Grenier's a projecting these three seat for the Liberals.  It is also seeing weakness in other ridings such as Signal Hill and Forest Lawn.

For Calgary voters who want to vote strategically to defeat Harper, however, the message is clear.  Vote Liberal.

Some recent posts:

Strategic voting in Edmonton Mill Woods: vote Liberal

Strategic voting in Edmonton Mill Woods
Strategic voting in
Edmonton Mill Woods
Recent local polls are bringing up some more opportunities for strategic voters, one of them is Edmonton Millwoods.

Edmonton Millwoods is a new riding located in south-east Edmonton. It was formed from the previous riding of Edmonton-Millwoods-Beaumont, which was once represented by Liberal David Kilgour.

A new poll conducted by MainStreet Research for the Friends of Canadian Broadcasting suggests that the riding could be in play:
Strategic voting in Edmonton Mill Woods
New Poll in Edmonton Mill Woods
Some recent posts:

Strategic Voting in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas: vote Liberal

Update, Oct. 17: the votetogether.ca team has endorsed Tassi, the Liberal candidate in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas, as the best positioned to defeat the Conservatives.

Strategic Tactical Voting in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas
Strategic Voting in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas
Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas (HWAD) is a new riding made up of the urban and suburban parts of what used to be Ancaster-Dundas-Flamorough-Westdale.  Its formation resulted in the rural polls of Flamborough being joined with Glanborough to form a new largely rural riding.

HWAD should now be a three-way race, with Conservative voters from upscale Ancaster and Dundas, NDP voters from Hamilton, and Liberals from both.  And it should be an active riding for all parties, because the McMaster student base should become active in all three parties.

Strategic tactical voting in Hamilton West Ancaster Dundas
Strategic voting in HWAD
If the 2011 are redistributed into the new riding (see here), the result would have been CPC 40%, NDP 28%, Liberal 25%.  But in this election, most polls are showing the Liberals have strengthened in Ontario at the expense of both other parties.

Threehundredeight.com projects a Liberal victory here, with the lower bounds of their expected tally above the upper limit of the Conservative.

Now there is a new local poll that confirms that result. Mainstreet Research conducted a poll of the riding for Friends of Canadian Broadcasting.  It found the Liberals in the lead:

Strategic voting Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas
Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas

Tuesday, October 13, 2015

Strategic voting in Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound: vote Liberal

Strategic tactical voting in Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound
Strategic voting in Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound
A new local poll reveals another riding that is surprisingly competitive: Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound, which includes the city of Owen Sound and towns such as Port Elgin, Southampton, Walkerton, Wiarton, Lucknow, Hanover, and Meaford.

The riding has been reliably Conservative since 2004, sending Larry Miller to Ottawa with ever increasing margins.

The voters of Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound, however, may have had enough of the Conservatives.

A poll in the riding in September showed some weakness and a new poll released today confirms that:

Strategic voting in Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound

To judge from today's poll, the Liberals may be within striking distance if a few more Greens and NDP back them.

Some recent posts:

Strategic voting in Cariboo-Prince George: vote NDP

Strategic voting in Cariboo-Prince George
Strategic voting in Cariboo-Prince George
Cariboo-Prince George is large and remote, making up some 80,000 sq. km. of central BC and includes the cities of Quesnel and Williams Lake.

Cariboo-Prince George is not a place that one would expect the Conservatives to be vulnerable—it has been reliably Conservative since the late 70s.

Recent polls, however, show that the NDP could defeat them here:

Strategic voting in Cariboo-Prince George poll

The key is that anti-Harper voters support the NDP.

Some recent posts:

Sign contest: why is this woman giving her hard earned money to Harper

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