Wednesday, October 14, 2015

Strategic Voting in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas: vote Liberal

Update, Oct. 17: the team has endorsed Tassi, the Liberal candidate in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas, as the best positioned to defeat the Conservatives.

Strategic Tactical Voting in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas
Strategic Voting in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas
Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas (HWAD) is a new riding made up of the urban and suburban parts of what used to be Ancaster-Dundas-Flamorough-Westdale.  Its formation resulted in the rural polls of Flamborough being joined with Glanborough to form a new largely rural riding.

HWAD should now be a three-way race, with Conservative voters from upscale Ancaster and Dundas, NDP voters from Hamilton, and Liberals from both.  And it should be an active riding for all parties, because the McMaster student base should become active in all three parties.

Strategic tactical voting in Hamilton West Ancaster Dundas
Strategic voting in HWAD
If the 2011 are redistributed into the new riding (see here), the result would have been CPC 40%, NDP 28%, Liberal 25%.  But in this election, most polls are showing the Liberals have strengthened in Ontario at the expense of both other parties. projects a Liberal victory here, with the lower bounds of their expected tally above the upper limit of the Conservative.

Now there is a new local poll that confirms that result. Mainstreet Research conducted a poll of the riding for Friends of Canadian Broadcasting.  It found the Liberals in the lead:

Strategic voting Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas
Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas