Showing posts with label Tactical voting. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tactical voting. Show all posts

Saturday, October 17, 2015

Strategic voting in Nipissing—Timiskaming: vote Liberal

The riding of Nipissing—Timiskaming was one of the closest in the country in 2011. The Conservative Jay Aspin defeated the Liberal Anthony Rota by a mere 18 votes.  The NDP received 8,781 and the Greens 2,518.

Strategic voting in Nipissing—Timiskaming

Clearly this is a riding where strategic voting is desired.  Nor is it difficult to see that strategic voters should line up behind the Liberal.

If there were any doubt about that, a local opinion poll conducted by CTV should remove it:
Strategic voting in Nipissing—Timiskaming


Some recent posts:
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Friday, October 16, 2015

Strategic voting in Perth-Wellington: vote Liberal

If polls are to be believed, the Liberals are dominating in Ontario. Grenier's poll tracker projects the Liberal support in Ontario at 43% and the Conservatives down to 31%:
Polls and Strategic voting Perth-Wellington
Ontario Polls from Poll Tracker
This shift against Harper is showing up on the ground in ridings that one would normally assume are fairly safe, such as Perth-Wellington, where a local poll conducted by Mainstreet Research for Postmedia, which found a neck-and-neck race between the Conservatives and Liberals:

Polling in Perth-Wellington

If this poll is correct, strategic voters in Perth-Wellington should vote for the Liberals.

The riding includes such towns as Stratford, St. Marys, Elora, Fergus, and Minto.

Some recent posts:
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Wednesday, October 14, 2015

Calgary Confederation, Skyview, and Centre: strategic voters should support the Liberals

Update, Oct. 17.   A new poll in Calgary Centre has the Liberals and Conservatives neck-and-neck.  Strategic voters could make the difference.

Strategic voting in Calgary Confederation, Skyview, and Centre
Calgary Conferation,
Calgary Skyview,
Calgary Centre
This election has a few more surprises than most, and the fracturing of the Conservatives' fortress in Calgary might be one of them.

A news story from the CBC reports that three Calgary ridings are surprisingly competitive: Calgary Centre, Calgary Confederation, and Calgary Skyview.

This is also the interpretation of Eric Grenier over at threehundredeight.com.  His current projections for the Calgary ridings paint three ridings red: Calgary Centre, Calgary Confederation, and Calgary Skyview

Strategic voting in Calgary Confederation, Skyview, and Centre
Calgary projections from threehundredeight.com
The striking thing is not merely that Grenier's a projecting these three seat for the Liberals.  It is also seeing weakness in other ridings such as Signal Hill and Forest Lawn.

For Calgary voters who want to vote strategically to defeat Harper, however, the message is clear.  Vote Liberal.

Some recent posts:
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Strategic voting in Edmonton Mill Woods: vote Liberal

Strategic voting in Edmonton Mill Woods
Strategic voting in
Edmonton Mill Woods
Recent local polls are bringing up some more opportunities for strategic voters, one of them is Edmonton Millwoods.

Edmonton Millwoods is a new riding located in south-east Edmonton. It was formed from the previous riding of Edmonton-Millwoods-Beaumont, which was once represented by Liberal David Kilgour.

A new poll conducted by MainStreet Research for the Friends of Canadian Broadcasting suggests that the riding could be in play:
Strategic voting in Edmonton Mill Woods
New Poll in Edmonton Mill Woods
Some recent posts:
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Strategic Voting in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas: vote Liberal

Update, Oct. 17: the votetogether.ca team has endorsed Tassi, the Liberal candidate in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas, as the best positioned to defeat the Conservatives.


Strategic Tactical Voting in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas
Strategic Voting in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas
Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas (HWAD) is a new riding made up of the urban and suburban parts of what used to be Ancaster-Dundas-Flamorough-Westdale.  Its formation resulted in the rural polls of Flamborough being joined with Glanborough to form a new largely rural riding.

HWAD should now be a three-way race, with Conservative voters from upscale Ancaster and Dundas, NDP voters from Hamilton, and Liberals from both.  And it should be an active riding for all parties, because the McMaster student base should become active in all three parties.

Strategic tactical voting in Hamilton West Ancaster Dundas
Strategic voting in HWAD
If the 2011 are redistributed into the new riding (see here), the result would have been CPC 40%, NDP 28%, Liberal 25%.  But in this election, most polls are showing the Liberals have strengthened in Ontario at the expense of both other parties.

Threehundredeight.com projects a Liberal victory here, with the lower bounds of their expected tally above the upper limit of the Conservative.

Now there is a new local poll that confirms that result. Mainstreet Research conducted a poll of the riding for Friends of Canadian Broadcasting.  It found the Liberals in the lead:

Strategic voting Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas
Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas
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Monday, October 12, 2015

Strategic Voting in Central Nova: vote Liberal

Strategic voting in Central Nova
Strategic voting in Central Nova
The riding of Central Nova in Nova Scotia is a riding where strategic voting could make a difference.  Its long-time MP, Peter MacKay, is not standing for re-election.

MacKay had won with over 50% of the vote, and his decision to retire from politics hurts the Conservatives in Nova Scotia.



How much it has hurt can be seen in the new figures, where Eric Grenier sees 40% as the high estimate for Conservative support.

Some local polling also suggest the Cons are vulnerable here:

Polls in Central Nova

Given that the polls were taken only a few days apart, but have quite different results, the results should probably be interpreted as a sign of Conservative vulnerability rather than a basis for confidence.  

Nevertheless, there is every possibility that Central Nova is a riding that is ripe for the picking if a handful of NDP and Green voters support the Liberals.

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Strategic voting in North Island-Powell River: vote NDP

The teams over at votetogether.ca have begun making recommendations in dozens of ridings for the up-coming election. They have recommended that strategic voters in North Island-Powell River support vote the NDP.  In addition to other factors they point to an Environics poll from Sept. 19 in which the NDP (41%) were well ahead of the Conservatives (27%), the Liberals (18%), and the Greens.
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Strategic voting in Nanaimo-Ladysmith: vote NDP



    A new poll for BC from Insights West (pdf) confirms that strategic voters in Nanaimo-Ladysmith should vote NDP.  Here are their poll results:

    Strategic voting in Nanaimo-Ladysmith
    Poll in Nanaimo-Ladysmith



    The good people at votetogether.ca have begun making their recommendations, which include one for strategic voting in Nanaimo-Ladysmith.

    Some of their other recommendations:

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    Strategic voting in Courtney-Alberni: vote NDP

    Strategic tactical voting in Courtney-Alberni
    Strategic voting in Courtney-Alberni
    Courtney-Alberni is a new riding that combines part of what used to be Nanaimo—Alberni (69%) and Vancouver Island North (31%). The riding includes Port Alberni and Courtney (obviously), as well as Parksville and

    The Conservative candidate in Courtney-Alberni is John Duncan, who took 46% of vote in 2011, over the 2nd place NDPer with 43%.

    The new riding is slightly less favourable to Duncan.  If the 2011 votes are redistributed within its boundaries, the Conservative would have received 45%, the NDP 41%, the Greens and Liberals both at 7%.

    By itself this should mean that strategic voters should support the NDP.

    As it happens, a recent poll conducted by Insights West (Sept. 13) confirms that. It found that support in the riding at: Con. 33%, NDP 39%, Lib. 13%, Green 12%.

    Update, Oct. 15.  A new poll for BC from Insights West (pdf) confirms that strategic voters in Courtney-Alberni should vote NDP:

    Strategic voting in Courtney-Alberni
    Polls in Courtney-Alberni


    Again it is fairly clear that the NDP have the best choice for strategic voters who want to avoid vote splitting and defeat the Conservatives.

    Votetogether.ca is expected to make a call for strategic voting in Courney-Alberni soon.

    Update. A new poll (Oct. 13) shows that strategic voters should support the NDP.
    Strategic voting in Courtney-Alberni
    New poll in Courtney-Alberni


    Recent posts:
    For a full list of my calls, see here.



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    Strategic voting in Oshawa: vote NDP

    Strategic voting in Oshawa
    Strategic voting in Oshawa
    The riding of Oshawa is another one where strategic voting could make a difference. It's boundaries have changed slightly, losing territory to Durham and gaining it from Whitby—Oshawa.

    The 2011 results were solidly Conservative; if they are redistributed according to the new riding boundaries, they'd be: Con (51%), NDP (37%), Lib 8%, Green 4%.

    There is no local polling to help the strategic voter out here, but recent national polls seem to suggest that the Conservatives are down in Ontario and the Liberals are up.  If strategically voting Liberals and Greens in Oshawa can swim against that tide and vote NDP, there is a good prospect of defeating the Conservatives in Oshawa.

    Some recent posts:
    For an overview of strategic voting posts, see here.
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    Sunday, October 11, 2015

    Strategic voting in South Okanagan-West Kootenay: vote NDP

    Update for Oct. 15. A new poll for BC from Insights West (pdf) confirms that strategic voters in South Okanagan-West Kootenay should vote NDP:

    Strategic voting in South Okanagan-West Kootenay
    Polls for South Okanagan-West Kootenay: vote NDP



    Strategic voting in South Okanagan-West Kootenay
    Strategic voting in South Okanagan-West Kootenay
    The riding of South Okanagan-West Kootenay in a new riding that includes the cities Castlegar, Grand Forks, Oliver, Osoyoos, Penticton, and Trail. That is, it is made up of parts of the old British Columbia Southern Interior, which NDP Alex Atamanenko had represented, and Okanagan-Coquihalla, which had voted Conservative.

    If one redistributes the 2011 votes in the new ridings (as is done here), the results would be Con. 45%,  NDP 39%, Lib. 7%, Green 8%.  This suggests that avoiding vote splitting is key here, given that Atamanenko has retired.

    A local poll conducted by Insights West (September 13) suggests that the NDP are well positioned to prevail.  It found support to be Con (33),  NDP (42), Lib.  (18),  Green (4).

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    Strategic voting Kootenay-Columbia: vote NDP

    Strategic voting in Kootenay-Columbia
    Strategic voting in Kootenay-Columbia
    As I pointed out in my post on strategic voting in North Okanagan—Shuswap, some might be surprised that some of these ridings in the BC Interior are competitive enough.

    Such is also the case in Kootenay-Columbia, which includes Cranbrook, Revelstoke, Kimberley, Fernie, Golden, Sparwood, and Nelson.  In the last election, vote splitting wasn't a factor: the Conservative won with 50% of the vote, compared to 39% NDP, 4% Liberal, and 6% Green.

    A redrawing of the riding, however, has brought 4000 net NDP votes into the riding and this could make a difference.

    An Environics Poll from September 19, 2015 placed the NDP and Conservatives in a dead head: Con (37%), NDP (37%), Lib. (15%), and Green (11%).

    This suggests that to avoid vote splitting, strategic voters should support the NDP.

    Update. Votetogether.ca has now endorsed the NDP for strategic voters in Kootenay-Columbia.

    Some recent posts:
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    Saturday, October 10, 2015

    Strategic voting in Kanata-Carleton: vote Liberal

    Strategic tactical voting in Kanata-Carleton
    Strategic voting in Kanata-Carleton
    The riding of Kanata-Carleton in Ottawa is a new riding formed out of pieces of the old riding of Carleton—Mississippi Mills, which has been a fairly safe Conservative.  Despite this, it is shaping up to be a close race. (See a news story about this here).

    In the last election, Gordon O'Connor received 57% of the vote, followed by the Liberal with 24%, the NDP with 15%, and the Green with 4%.  Gordon O'Connor, however, decided not to stand for re-election.

    A recently conducted poll suggests that this is a tight race between Conservative Walter Pamic (whose past militant anti-unionism has become controversial) and Liberal Karen McCrimmon.


     Clearly strategic voters will want to support the Liberals here and avoid the vote splitting.

    Some recent posts:


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    Strategic voting in North Okanagan—Shuswap: vote NDP

    Strategic tactical voting in North Okanagan—Shuswap
    Strategic voting in
    North Okanagan—Shuswap
    Some might be surprised that North Okanagan—Shuswap, which includes the cities of Vernon, Armstrong, Coldstream, and Salmon Arm, is included among ridings where strategic voting could make a difference.  After all, in the last election the Conservatives were elected with an easy 55%, compared to 27% for the NDP, 7% for the Liberals, and 11% for the Greens.

    Several important factors contribute to change.  First, the incumbent Colin Mayes decided not to run; second, Conservative support in BC has softened; and third, the Conservative nominee Mel Arnold seems to be a climate change denier.  

    A recent poll conducted by Oracle Research supports the view that change is afoot in North Okanagan—Shuswap. It finds the NDP in front with 41% support, the Conservatives with 38%, Liberals at 12% and Greens at 9%.  If strategic voters want to avoid vote splitting in North Okanagan—Shuswap, they should support the NDP.

    Update.  A new poll from Environics confirms that strategic voters in North Okanagan-Shuswap should vote NDP:

    Strategic voting in North Okanagan Shuswap


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    Strategic voting in Cowichan—Malahat—Langford: vote NDP

    Update. Oct. 15. A new poll for BC from Insights West (pdf) confirms that the in Cowichan—Malahat—Langford are best placed to defeat the Conservatives:

    Strategic voting in Cowichan—Malahat—Langford
    Oct. 15 Poll for Cowichan—Malahat—Langford: vote NDP




    Strategic tactical voting in Cowichan—Malahat—Langford
    Strategic voting in Cowichan-Malahat-Langford
    Another new riding in BC is Cowichan—Malahat—Langford, which includes parts of the old ridings of Nanaimo—Cowichan and Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca, both of which elected NDP MPs in the last election.

     If the votes of the last election were cast in the current boundaries, the result would have been very close: Con 43%, NDP 43.5%, Lib 6%, Green 7%.

    Recent polls confirm that it is close. An Insight West poll released Oct. 7 places support as: Con 21%, NDP 26%, Lib 10%, Green 14%, with 26% undecided.

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    Strategic voting in Burnaby North—Seymour: vote NDP

    Update for Oct. 15.  A new poll for BC from Insights West (pdf) confirms that strategic voters in Burnaby North—Seymour should vote NDP:

    Strategic voting in Burnaby North—Seymour
    Poll for Burnaby North—Seymour: vote NDP



    Strategic voting in Burnaby North—Seymour
    Strategic voting in Burnaby North—Seymour
    Burnaby North—Seymour is a new riding in BC. Its creation has been controversial, since it combines parts of Burnaby—Douglas (which tend towards the NDP) and parts of North Vancouver such as Deep Cove and Seymour (which is reliably Conservative).

    I f we transpose the results of the 2011 election into the new riding, the results would be CPC 44%, NDP 35%, Lib 16%, Green 4%.

    A recent poll in the riding (Insights West, Sept. 9-13) suggests the riding is very close:  CPC 33%, NDP 37%, Lib 21%, Green 9%. 

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    Friday, October 09, 2015

    Strategic voting in Brantford-Brant: vote NDP

    Vote Splitting in Brantford-Brant
    Strategic voting in Brantford-Brant
    Brantford—Brant is another Ontario riding where strategic voting could be important.  It is interesting because it was for a long time the riding of NDP stalwart Derek Blackburn, then of Liberal cabinet minister Jane Stewart, and has been Conservative since 2008. In addition to Brantford and Brant, it includes the Six Nations.

    In 2011 the election results were fairly solidly Conservative (49%), as compared to Lib (19%), NDP (29%), and Green (3%).  

    An Environics poll of Sept. 20 placed support for the parties at Con (39%), Lib (25%), NDP (30%), and Green (6%). In Brantford-Brant, strategic voters should avoid vote splitting by supporting the NDP.

    Some recent posts:
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    Strategic voting in London North Centre: vote Liberal

    London North Centre is a very good example of the consequences of the splitting  of the anti-Conservative vote.
    Strategic tactical voting in London North Centre
    Strategic voting in
    London North Centre

    In the 2011 election, Conservative Susan Truppe was elected with 37% of the vote; the Liberals were at 34%; the NDP, 25%; the Greens, 4%. 

    Since the start of the Election there have been three polls in the riding:
    • Environics (Oct. 4): Con (32%), Lib. (48%), NDP (15%), Green (5%)
    • Environics (Sept. 20): Con (35%), Lib. (35%), NDP (25%), Green (5%)
    • Environics (Aug. 16): Con (32%), Lib. (34%), NDP (27%), Green (5%)
    The most recent suggests that the Liberals will take the seat; the two earlier polls, however, imply that vote splitting could again allow the election of a Conservative here against the wishes of most voters.  Strategic voters should therefore vote Liberal here.

    Some recent posts:
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    Strategic voting in London West: vote Liberal

    Strategic tactical voting in London West
    Strategic voting in London West
    Another riding where vote-splitting may result in the election of a Conservative is London West, which is currently represented by the Conservative Ed Holder.

    His election in 2011 benefited from vote splitting. He received 45% of the vote; the Liberals 25% and the NDP 27%.

    Where should strategic voters park their vote?  An Environics poll for London West from Oct. 4 found voters divided thus: Con (38%), Lib. (37%), NDP (30%), Green (5%), which suggests strongly that to avoid vote splitting, tactical voters should support the Liberals.

    Some recent posts:
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    Strategic voting in Ontario (recap)

    My advice to strategic voters in Ontario ridings:
    (To be continued)
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