Bouquets of Gray: Ontario

Showing posts with label Ontario. Show all posts

Monday, October 12, 2015

Strategic voting in Oshawa: vote NDP

Strategic voting in Oshawa

The riding of Oshawa is another one where strategic voting could make a difference. It's boundaries have changed slightly, losing territory to Durham and gaining it from Whitby—Oshawa.

The 2011 results were solidly Conservative; if they are redistributed according to the new riding boundaries, they'd be: Con (51%), NDP (37%), Lib 8%, Green 4%.

There is no local polling to help the strategic voter out here, but recent national polls seem to suggest that the Conservatives are down in Ontario and the Liberals are up. If strategically voting Liberals and Greens in Oshawa can swim against that tide and vote NDP, there is a good prospect of defeating the Conservatives in Oshawa.

Some recent posts:

For an overview of strategic voting posts, see here.

Saturday, October 10, 2015

Strategic voting in Kanata-Carleton: vote Liberal

Strategic tactical voting in Kanata-Carleton

Strategic voting in Kanata-Carleton

The riding of Kanata-Carleton in Ottawa is a new riding formed out of pieces of the old riding of Carleton—Mississippi Mills, which has been a fairly safe Conservative. Despite this, it is shaping up to be a close race. (See a news story about this here).

In the last election, Gordon O'Connor received 57% of the vote, followed by the Liberal with 24%, the NDP with 15%, and the Green with 4%. Gordon O'Connor, however, decided not to stand for re-election.

A recently conducted poll suggests that this is a tight race between Conservative Walter Pamic (whose past militant anti-unionism has become controversial) and Liberal Karen McCrimmon.

Clearly strategic voters will want to support the Liberals here and avoid the vote splitting.

Some recent posts:

Friday, October 09, 2015

Strategic voting in Brantford-Brant: vote NDP

Strategic voting in Brantford-Brant

Brantford—Brant is another Ontario riding where strategic voting could be important. It is interesting because it was for a long time the riding of NDP stalwart Derek Blackburn, then of Liberal cabinet minister Jane Stewart, and has been Conservative since 2008. In addition to Brantford and Brant, it includes the Six Nations.

In 2011 the election results were fairly solidly Conservative (49%), as compared to Lib (19%), NDP (29%), and Green (3%).

An Environics poll of Sept. 20 placed support for the parties at Con (39%), Lib (25%), NDP (30%), and Green (6%). In Brantford-Brant, strategic voters should avoid vote splitting by supporting the NDP.

Some recent posts:

Strategic voting in London West: vote Liberal

Strategic tactical voting in London West

Strategic voting in London West

Another riding where vote-splitting may result in the election of a Conservative is London West, which is currently represented by the Conservative Ed Holder.

His election in 2011 benefited from vote splitting. He received 45% of the vote; the Liberals 25% and the NDP 27%.

Where should strategic voters park their vote? An Environics poll for London West from Oct. 4 found voters divided thus: Con (38%), Lib. (37%), NDP (30%), Green (5%), which suggests strongly that to avoid vote splitting, tactical voters should support the Liberals.

Some recent posts:

Strategic voting in Ontario (recap)

My advice to strategic voters in Ontario ridings:

(To be continued)

Strategic voting in Essex: vote NDP

Strategic voting in Essex

The riding of Essex in southwest Ontario has had a Conservative MP, Jeff Watson, since 2004.

In the last election, the results were CPC (48%), NDP (35%), Lib. (14%), Green (2%).

An Environics poll taken Oct. 2-5, however, suggests that the Conservatives could be vulnerable in Essex if strategic voters rally behind the NDP candidate. It found voting intentions as CPC (38%), NDP (37%), Lib. (22%), Green (4%).

Strategic voters who want to avoid a Conservative victory through vote-splitting should vote NDP.

Some recent posts:

Thursday, October 08, 2015

Strategic voting in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas: crowdfunding polls

Strategic Tactical Voting in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas

Strategic voting in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas

A couple days ago, I discussed the prospects for strategic voting in the riding of Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas, and advising waiting until more is known. The good people at votetogether.ca were gathering pledges of strategic voters, with the goal of crowd-funding a poll once 500 pledges were reached.

The pledges reached 500 yesterday and they are now crowd-funding for a poll.

A poll would be greatly helpful to strategic voters in the riding. The riding is a new one, so there is no solid historical data to go on. If the votes from 2011 are redistributed in the new riding (see here), the result would be CPC 40%, NDP 28%, Liberal 25%. Should strategic voters support the Liberals or NDP? It's hard to know.

This is where you can come in. A donation page to fund polls has been added to the votetogether.ca page. If you can spare a few dollars, do so!

Update. There is now a poll showing a Liberal lead. See more here: Strategic Voting: Ham-West-Ancaster-Dundas: new poll.

Strategic voting in Mississauga Erin Mills: Vote Liberal

Strategic voting in
Mississauga Erin Mills

The riding of Mississauga-Erin Mills is the new name for what used to be Mississauga-Erindale, which has been represented since 2008 by Conservative MP Robert Dechert.

In the 2011 election the vote split (link): Con (47%) / Lib (39%) / NDP (16%) / Green (4%).

This is another riding where strategic voting could make a difference if NDPers and Greens vote Liberal.

Other recent posts:

Wednesday, October 07, 2015

Strategic voting in Misissauga East-Cooksville: vote Liberal

The riding of Misissauga East-Cooksville is currently represented by Conservative MP Wladyslaw Lizon, who in 2011 defeated the Liberal Peter Fonseca by some 600 votes. This is a rematch.

Strategic-tactical voting in Mississauga East-Cooksville

Strategic voting in
Mississauga East-Cooksville

Like most ridings in the GTA, the riding boundaries have been redrawn. If the 2011 votes are recast in the new ridings, the result would be (link): Con (44%) / Lib (36%) / NDP (18%) / Green (2%).

This is a riding where strategic voting could make a difference if NDPers and Greens vote Liberal.

Strategic voting in Mississauga Centre: vote Liberal

Strategic voting in Mississauga Centre

Mississauga Centre is another riding in which tactical voting makes sense. Like most ridings in southern Ontario, its boundaries have been redrawn. If the 2011 results are recast into the new boundaries (link), the results would have been: Con (42%) /Lib (37%) / NDP (17%) / Green (2%).

A poll of Mississauga Centre was conducted by Forum on Oct. 4, which found voting intentions: Con (35%) / Lib (44%) / NDP (16%) / Green (5%).

Clearly strategic voters should vote Liberal in Mississauga Centre.

Strategic Voting in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas: pledge votegether.ca

Strategic Voting in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas

Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas is a newly formed riding that incorporates parts of the old Ancaster-Dundas-Flamorough-Westdale riding.

The rural polls of Flamborough were removed and joined with Glanborough to form a new riding. In the process of doing this, however, some 12,000 Conservative votes were moved out of the Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas. In their place were added a good piece of the western mountain, which had in 2011 been solidly NDP.

If the votes from 2011 are redistributed in the new riding (see here), the result is CPC 40%, NDP 28%, Liberal 25%. Given the recent campaign in Ontario where the Liberals are up and the NDP are down, who has the best chance of defeating the Conservatives?

Votetogether.ca is collecting pledges from strategic voters and, once there are 500 pledges, they will crowd-fund a poll. Strategic voters inHamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas are best advised to enter their pledge at votetogether.ca/riding/35038/, contribute to the crowdfunding if and when it is started, and vote strategically once more is known.

Update. There is now a poll showing a Liberal lead. See more here: Strategic Voting: Ham-West-Ancaster-Dundas: new poll.

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