Strategic voting in Oshawa: vote NDP

Strategic voting in Oshawa

The riding of Oshawa is another one where strategic voting could make a difference. It's boundaries have changed slightly, losing territory to Durham and gaining it from Whitby—Oshawa.

The 2011 results were solidly Conservative; if they are redistributed according to the new riding boundaries, they'd be: Con (51%), NDP (37%), Lib 8%, Green 4%.

There is no local polling to help the strategic voter out here, but recent national polls seem to suggest that the Conservatives are down in Ontario and the Liberals are up.  If strategically voting Liberals and Greens in Oshawa can swim against that tide and vote NDP, there is a good prospect of defeating the Conservatives in Oshawa.

Some recent posts:

• Strategic voting in Courtney-Alberni: vote NDP
• Strategic voting in Oshawa: vote NDP
• Strategic voting in Peterborough—Kawartha: vote Liberal
• Strategic voting in South Okanagan-West Kootenay: vote NDP
• Strategic voting Kootenay-Columbia: vote NDP
• Strategic voting in Kanata-Carleton: vote Liberal
• Strategic voting in North Okanagan—Shuswap: vote NDP
• Strategic voting in Cowichan—Malahat—Langford: vote NDP
• Strategic voting in Burnaby North—Seymour: vote NDP
• Strategic voting in Brantford-Brant: vote NDP
• Strategic voting in Essex: vote NDP

For an overview of strategic voting posts, see here.

A strategic voting trio: Ancaster, Oshawa, Saanich

Scott Tribe encourages to vote strategically to defeat Harper. In the spirit of this, I offer three ridings where voters should vote strategically in favour of a Liberal, an NDP, and a Green, respectively.

In Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale (part of western Hamilton), NDP and Green voters who want to defeat Harper should vote Liberal, as is clear from earlier election results:

	2000*	2004	2006
Lib	41.2%	39.7%	34.5%
NDP	7.8%	20.9%	21.3%
Green	n/a	4.8%	4.4%
Con	CA: 31.6% PC 19.5%	34.6%	39.1%

In Oshawa, Liberals and Greens should vote NDP.

	2000*	2004	2006
Lib	34%	30.5%	24%
NDP	8.8%	32.3%	33.4%
Green	n/a	3.9%	3.8%
Con	CA: 22.9% PC 11.9%	33.3%	38.6%

In Saanich—Gulf Islands, the NDP-candidate has withdrawn; NDs and Liberals should vote Green.

	2000*	2004	2006
Lib	32.3%	26.8%	26.0%
NDP	8%	21.6%	26.6%
Green	n/a	16.7%	9.9%
Con	CA: 43.1% PC 10.28%	34.6%	37.1%

*In 2000, the Canadian Alliance and Progressive Conservative party had not yet merged, and some of these ridings were differently configured.