Sunday, October 11, 2015

Strategic voting in South Okanagan-West Kootenay: vote NDP

Update for Oct. 15. A new poll for BC from Insights West (pdf) confirms that strategic voters in South Okanagan-West Kootenay should vote NDP:

Strategic voting in South Okanagan-West Kootenay
Polls for South Okanagan-West Kootenay: vote NDP



Strategic voting in South Okanagan-West Kootenay
Strategic voting in South Okanagan-West Kootenay
The riding of South Okanagan-West Kootenay in a new riding that includes the cities Castlegar, Grand Forks, Oliver, Osoyoos, Penticton, and Trail. That is, it is made up of parts of the old British Columbia Southern Interior, which NDP Alex Atamanenko had represented, and Okanagan-Coquihalla, which had voted Conservative.

If one redistributes the 2011 votes in the new ridings (as is done here), the results would be Con. 45%,  NDP 39%, Lib. 7%, Green 8%.  This suggests that avoiding vote splitting is key here, given that Atamanenko has retired.

A local poll conducted by Insights West (September 13) suggests that the NDP are well positioned to prevail.  It found support to be Con (33),  NDP (42), Lib.  (18),  Green (4).