Wednesday, January 25, 2006

Same-sex marriage is safe until the next election

In the last couple posts, I've been trying to gauge the effect of the election on same-sex marriage.

As I count noses, I estimate that there are about 100 Conservatives who will vote against ssm (here) and at most 29 Liberals (here). There were five BQ who voted against ssm in the last parliament, one of whom was defeated (Desroches). The NDP will all vote for ssm.

This means that there could be about 130 votes for a motion to revoke same-sex marriage. I suspect that is a ceiling, not a floor. Some of those who voted against ssm last time did so reluctantly and for the status quo. Now, however, same sex marriage is the status quo. And it will increasingly be so.

Add to this a general reluctance on all but the most committed to this issue above all others to avoid the embarrassing excesses of the last debate, and you have a recipe for no change on this front.

6 comments:

Robert McClelland said...

I wouldn't underestimate the ability of the right whingers to whip their party into voting the way they want them to regardless of the individual MP's beliefs on the issue. So I'd expect to see about 120 of the Cons voting for a motion to revoke same-sex marriage.

Reg said...

Or perhaps a quick vote to put it to rest once and for all. After seeing that albatross scare TO back to the Liberals, I'm thinking Harper would love nothing more than to be done with that issue.

James MacDuff said...

Excellent work. One thought - are there any rookie Liberal MPs elected this time around? I would be interested to know of any newly minted Libs and their positions, as I don't know if that ground is yet covered by your analysis.

buckets said...

There's Keeper in northern Manitoba, Merasty in northern Saskatchewan, and Wilson in West Vancouver, whom I discuss here. But the numbers of new Liberals is so small that it hardly matters.

Cerberus said...

Don't forget Ignatieff. He's a rookie too, although he takes over from a pro-equal marriage MP, so net effect is 0.

lecentre said...

Harper's found a compromise between pro-traditional marriage and pro-ssm elements in his party: free vote. I've also come to the conclusion that gay marriage would stay, but my math is different, and my reasoning is also a bit different.
you can see it at my centrist blog: centrerion.blogspot.com