Judging from the American Social Security Administration's online tables (here), the actuarial probability that an American male of (say) 72 years of age, would die during a year is 3.2978%; one of 73 years, 3.6086%; one of 74 years, 3.9506%; one of 75 years, 4.3415%.
Taking these together over (say) four years, the odds of a 72-year old man dying in the next four years would be 19.1491%, or about one in five.
So, America. Feeling lucky?
Update. Via email I was reminded that the odds for the next four years are even worse: 77th year, 4.7789%; 78th, 5.2464%; 79th, 5.7413%; 80th, 6.2789%. The odds of a 76 year old dying before the end of his 80th year is 22.05%. And the odds of a 72 year-old dying within two terms, 41.2%.
