Strategic voting in Winnipeg (recap)

Those who want to vote strategically in the coming election are often find it challenging to decide which party to vote for. This is again true in the current election.

In a series of posts I have reviewed five Winnipeg ridings where strategic voting could make a difference in voting.  These are:

• Strategic voting in Elmwood-Transcona: vote NDP
• Strategic voting in Winnipeg South-Centre: vote Liberal
• Strategic voting in Kildonan-St. Paul: vote NDP
• Strategic Voting in Saint Boniface-Saint Vital: vote Liberal
• Strategic voting in Winnipeg South: vote Liberal

Strategic Voting in Winnipeg South: vote Liberal

Winnipeg has become an important battle ground in the recent election. In the last election, in 2011, six of the eight ridings that include part of Winnipeg went Conservative.  In five of these, strategic voting could make a difference.

Strategic voting Winnipeg South

Winnipeg South: vote Liberal

• CPC incumbent Rod Bruinooge is not running. 
• electionprediction.org regards it as too close to call
• threehundredandeight.com gives the Liberals an 90+% chance of taking the riding 
• in 2011, the Liberals came in second with twice as many votes as the NDP
• again, strategic voters should back the Liberal.

Update.  Here is the threehundredeight.com's latest projection:

Strategic voting Winnipeg South

Other posts:
Strategic Voting in Winnipeg

• Tactical voting in Elmwood-Transcona: vote NDP
• Tactical voting in Winnipeg South-Centre: vote Liberal
• Tactical voting in Kildonan-St. Paul: vote NDP
• Tactical Voting in Saint Boniface-Saint Vital: vote Liberal
• Tactical voting in Winnipeg South: vote Liberal

Strategic Voting in Saint Boniface-Saint Vital: vote Liberal

Saint Boniface-Saint Vital: vote Liberal

Tactical voting in
Saint Boniface-Saint Vital

In recent posts, I suggested that tactical voters in Elmwood-Transcona should vote NDP, that in Winnipeg South Centre, tactical voters are best advised to vote Liberal, and that in Kildonan-St. Paul, tactical votes should go to the NDP. In this post, I will argue that in Saint Boniface-Saint-Vital, strategic voters should back the Liberals.

• Conservative MP Shelley Glover has decided not to run for re-election.
• electionprediction.org calls election for the Liberals
• a Mainstreet/Postmedia poll on Sept. 25 placed the Liberals ahead at 38% of decided voters in Saint Boniface-Saint Vital, compared to 25% for the CPC and 14% for the NDP. Undecided are 20%.
• strategic voters should support the Liberal

Other posts:

Strategic Voting in Winnipeg

• Strategic voting in Elmwood-Transcona: vote NDP
• Strategic voting in Winnipeg South-Centre: vote Liberal
• Strategic voting in Kildonan-St. Paul: vote NDP
• Strategic Voting in Saint Boniface-Saint Vital: vote Liberal
• Strategic voting in Winnipeg South: vote Liberal

Strategic Voting in Kildonan-St. Paul: Vote NDP

Kildonan-St. Paul: vote NDP

Strategic voting in Kildonan-St. Paul

In recent posts, I suggested strategic voters in Elmwood-Transcona should vote NDP, and in Winnipeg South Centre, strategic voters are best advised to vote Liberal. In this post, I will argue that although Kildonan-St. Paul is a long shot, tactical voters should back the NDP.

• The incumbent MP for Kildonan-St. Paul, Conservative Joy Smith, has decided not to run for re-election;
• threehundredandeight.com gives CPC an 80% chance of holding the riding;
• in 2011, the CPC got 58% of the vote; the NDP, 30%; and the Libs, 8%. 
• for further developments, consult the votetogether.ca profile and the ongoing discussion electionprediction.org 
• strategic voters should probably back the NDP candidate

Other posts:

Strategic Voting in Winnipeg

• Strategic voting in Elmwood-Transcona: vote NDP
• Strategic voting in Winnipeg South-Centre: vote Liberal
• Strategic voting in Kildonan-St. Paul: vote NDP
• Strategic Voting in Saint Boniface-Saint Vital: vote Liberal
• Strategic voting in Winnipeg South: vote Liberal

Strategic voting in Winnipeg South Centre: vote Liberal

Winnipeg South Centre: vote Liberal

In my last post, I urged strategic voters in Elmwood-Transcona to vote NDP. In the nearby riding of Winnipeg South Centre, strategic voters should vote Liberal.

Strategic voting in Winnipeg South Center

• The Conservative incumbent is Joyce Bateman, who was recently in the news for reading a prepared list of 'Enemies of Israel' at a B'nai Brith sponsored campaign debate
• Bateman captured the seat in 2011 by less than 700 votes. The results were Con 39%, Lib 37%, NDP 18%. 
• a poll conducted by votetogether.ca Sept. 18-21 places the Liberal candidate (Jim Carr) ahead at 38%, with the Conservative at 31%, and the NDP at 23%
• threehundredandeight.com projects the Liberal as having a 63% of winning
• electionprediction.org projects the riding as a Liberal win
• strategic voters would do best to back the Liberal candidate, Jim Carr.

Although the prospects to defeat the Conservatives are good here, tactical voting is still advisable here.  According to a CBC report, the boundaries of the riding have been changed in the Conservatives favour.

In sum, strategic voters would do best to back the Liberal candidate, Jim Carr.

Update.  Votetogether has now endorsed the Liberals for strategic voters in Winnipeg South Centre.

Other posts:

Strategic Voting in Winnipeg

• • Strategic voting in Elmwood-Transcona: vote NDP
  • Strategic voting in Winnipeg South-Centre: vote Liberal
  • Strategic voting in Kildonan-St. Paul: vote NDP
  • Strategic Voting in Saint Boniface-Saint Vital: vote Liberal
  • Strategic voting in Winnipeg South: vote Liberal

Strategic voting in Elmwood-Transcona: vote NDP

Strategic voting in Elmwood-Transcona: vote NDP

Strategic voting in Elmood-Transcona

Winnipeg has become an important battle ground in the recent election. In the last election, in 2011, six of the eight ridings that include part of Winnipeg went Conservative. In several of these, strategic voting could make a difference.  One of these is Elmwood-Transcona.

• Elmwood-Transcona is currently held by a CPC incumbent, Lawrence Toet, who captured the seat in 2011 with a margin of 284 votes;
• the NDP candidate is Daniel Blaikie, son of Bill Blaikie, who represented Elmwood-Transcona from 1979 to 2008
• two polls taken in Elmwood-Transcona conducted by votetogether.ca in August and September place the NDP support at 37% and 39%; the CPC at 30% and 39%; the Liberals at 25% and 20%; and Greens were 6% and 4%;
• threehundredandeight.com projects the NDP have a 63% of winning;
• see the discussion at electionprediction.org
• strategic voters in Elmwood-Transcona should vote NDP

Update on Elmwood-Transcona

The CBC has a story on the NDP campaign in Elmwood-Transcona, which is pushing Blaikie as the strategic choice

NDP literature pushes strategic voting in Elmwood-Transcona

Update.  Votetogether has now endorsed the NDP for Strategic voting in Elmwood-Transcona.

Other posts:

Strategic Voting in Winnipeg

• Strategic voting in Elmwood-Transcona: vote NDP
• Strategic voting in Winnipeg South-Centre: vote Liberal
• Strategic voting in Kildonan-St. Paul: vote NDP
• Strategic Voting in Saint Boniface-Saint Vital: vote Liberal
• Strategic voting in Winnipeg South: vote Liberal
•