Sunday, August 31, 2008

McCain's big gamble

McCainsBigGamble
Judging from the American Social Security Administration's online tables (here), the actuarial probability that an American male of (say) 72 years of age, would die during a year is 3.2978%; one of 73 years, 3.6086%; one of 74 years, 3.9506%; one of 75 years, 4.3415%.

Taking these together over (say) four years, the odds of a 72-year old man dying in the next four years would be 19.1491%, or about one in five.

So, America. Feeling lucky?

Update. Via email I was reminded that the odds for the next four years are even worse: 77th year, 4.7789%; 78th, 5.2464%; 79th, 5.7413%; 80th, 6.2789%. The odds of a 76 year old dying before the end of his 80th year is 22.05%. And the odds of a 72 year-old dying within two terms, 41.2%.

Snicker

Ahem, America, Alaska is close to two countries



Fox News (see here): "[T]he other thing about her, she does know about international relations because she is right up there in Alaska right next door to Russia."

The same point was made by Cindy McCain, and now other commentators have repeated what must be becoming a Republican talking-point (here).

Attention, Americans. There are two countries up near Alaska (see the map above). And while Canada didn't make the Axis of Evil, we want to point out that Canada is part of the Axis of Nations That Are Actually Quite Nice But Secretly Have Nasty Thoughts About America.


    Links added

Sarah Palin's little problem

Over at Talking-Points Memo, Josh Marshall has a great summary involving Sarah Palin's trooper-gate.

Saturday, August 30, 2008

Sarah Palin's electoral experience

Down south, Republican nominee John McCain has surprised everyone by picking up-and-comer Sarah Palin to be his running-mate.

The surprise is due to her lack of experience. She's been governor of Alaska for less than two years. Before that she was mayor of the town of Wasilla, Alaska, a small city or town, depending on your definition.

But her relative lack of experience is not merely in governing, but in electoral politics.

Here are the election results in the years that Palin was returned as mayor.
  • in 1996, Palin defeated incumbent mayor John Stein 617 to 413.*
  • in a rematch in 1999, Palin defeated John Stein 826 to 255.**
This means, however, that before her recent election as governor, Palin's entire electoral experience involved only a couple thousand votes.
    *Source: Anchorage Daily News, October 2, 1996
    **Source: Anchorage Daily News, October 6, 1999 (also here)

So that's what a spinner is!

I'd always wondered.

The electoral college now and then (3)

August30Comp
h/t electoral-vote.com

Thursday, August 28, 2008

God is not mocked

When Focus on the Family prayed for rain at the Democratic National Convention in Denver (here), it was easy to dismiss as playful humour. God, in any case, had his own plans: the weather is perfect.

Meanwhile look at what rough beast slouches towards New Orleans:

Scheduled landfall? September 1, the first day of the Republican National Convention in Minneapolis.
    h/t Chris Bodenner.

Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Monday, August 25, 2008

The electoral college now and then

Here is the state of play in the US presidential election.

In 2004, 280 for Kerry to 238 for Bush. Today: 264 Obama; 252 McCain; 22 tied

Aug25(compared)


Hang on to your hats, folks. It looks like another close one.


    h/t electoral-vote.com.

Sunday, August 24, 2008

Aging elephants

Conservative blogger Edward Michael George spins a recent Telegraph poll that showed that
    Race continues to be a significant factor with nine per cent of voters saying they would feel uncomfortable voting for a black candidate.
Mr. George wonders why this 9% newsworthy is newsworthy when "90% of black voters … don't want to go with the white candidate".

The learned Dr. Dawg makes quick work, pointing out that the 9% are uncomfortable with voting for any black candidate, while Mr. George's 90% of blacks rejecting McCain are apparently uncomfortable with this specific white one, but have voted for whites (Clinton, Gore, etc.) before in massive numbers. One might wonder in any case what Mr. George's point was: that white racism is OK because some blacks might be racist (even if this example doesn't show it)?

But let's leave that aside. There is another recent poll finding, that strikes me as more worthy of attention. The Washington Post asked voters about their comfort levels about both Obama's race and McCain's age.


Here, 12% of registered voters are somewhat or entirely uncomfortable with Obama becoming the first black president. But 44% are uncomfortable with McCain taking office at age 72.

This suggests that racism is a smaller problem for Obama than ageism for McCain.


Rewritten for clarity.

Saturday, August 23, 2008

Punctuation can mean life or death

Kinsley at FT.com (registration required):
    "I use semicolons and I never really enforced a hard-and-fast rule," Kinsley responded recently by e-mail ... "But if abuse is going to be common," he continued, "it's simpler and safer to have a flat-out rule. It's like drug regulation. Drugs are banned sometimes because a minority of users will have negative side effects, or because taking them correctly is complicated, although many people could get it right and would find them helpful. Actually, I'm opposed to that kind of thinking re drugs, but I am OK with it regarding punctuation. Punctuation can't save your life."


"Eats shoots and leaves":


"Eats, shoots, and leaves"


(With apologies to Lynne Truss )

Friday, August 22, 2008

When the aints come marching in (running list)

Brian Rushfeldt's Canada Family Action Coalition filed a complaint to the Judicial Council (pdf here) demanding that the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court be sacked for chairing the committee that awarded the Order of Canada to Morgentaler.

He claims to be representing 42 groups, which follow with links. Items that are inappropriate (e.g., because they are private businesses) or double-counted have been struck out with a link to the explanation.
  1. Canada Family Action Coalition. Several of its affiliates have been included (nos. 30 and 36). (1)
  2. 4 My Canada. On them, see here.
  3. A.J. Slinger Service is a private business, and apparently the same as nos. 13 and 14 below (see here).
  4. Alberta Pro-Life Alliance Association is part of Life Canada (no. 26) and should not be counted twice (see here).
  5. Active Christians Engaging Society is a micro-group based in Sudbury with only four members, see here.
  6. Alliance for Life Ontario (2).
  7. ARPA Canada (Association for Reformed Political Action) (3).
  8. Canada Christian College is a real Bible College. But it has the same address and phone numbers as several other groups that seem to be under its control (nos. 12, 19, 24, 25), which have been struck (4).
  9. Canadian Physicians for Life is a chapter of Life Canada (no. 26) (see here).
  10. Canadian Alliance for Social Justice and Family Values Association (5).
  11. Canadian Coalition Democracies (6).
  12. Canadian College of Christian Councelors (sic) has the same contact information as no. 8 Canada Christian College (see here).
  13. Can Am Fabricating and Welding: see above, no. 3.
  14. Can American Stone Spreader: see above, no. 3.
  15. Catholic Civil Rights League (7).
  16. Catholic Diocese of Calgary (8).
  17. Christian Action Federation of New Brunswick (9).
  18. Christian Social Concern Fellowship (10).
  19. Christians United for Israel has the same contact information as no. 8, Canada Christian College (see here).
  20. Colchester County Right to Life = Colchester Right to Life. See update 2, below.
  21. David Murrell, Phd, UNB, Economics is not a group, but an individual (see here).
  22. Eternally Yours Radio and Telecast Ministry (11).
  23. Eternity Club is run by the same woman who runs no. 22.
  24. Evangelical Association of Canada has the same contact information as no. 8, Canada Christian College (see here)
  25. Institute for Canadian Values has the same contact information as no. 8, Canada Christian College (see here)
  26. Life Canada is the national umbrella group for those opposed to abortion. Some of its constituent groups that have been listed include no. 4, 9, 20, 33, 37, 38 (12).
  27. Life Site News (13).
  28. Live-In International (14).
  29. Lutherans for Life (15).
  30. Niagara Chapter - CFAC is a constituent part of Canada Family Action Coalition (no. 1) (see here).
  31. North Shore Pro Life is an affiliate (once removed) of Life Canada (see here in upperdate)
  32. Our Lady of Mercy Parish Pro-Life Burnaby. (16)
  33. Pro-Vie Clare. See update 1, below.
  34. Real Women BC is a chapter of Real Women of Canada, no. 35 (see here).
  35. Real Women of Canada (17).
  36. Renfrew County Family Action Council is a chapter of the Canada Family Action Coalition (see here).
  37. Right to Life Association of Newfoundland and Labrador is a constituent group of Life Canada (no. 26).
  38. Saskatchewan Pro-Life Association is a constituent group of Life Canada (no. 26).
  39. Takebackcanada.com. is a website, not a group (see here in the updates).
  40. Together for Life Ministries is a one-women wedding service (see here).
  41. United Families Canada seems to be a shell (see here).
  42. Vancouver Jesus Agape Church. (18)
This post will be updated as new information is received.

Update 1.  In the comments JJ points out that the group Pro-Vie Clare (no. 33) is a chapter of Life Nova Scotia (see here), which is not in Rushfeldt's list.  Life Nova Scotia, however, is a chapter of Life Canada (see here).  Since the mother organization of Pro-Vie's mother organization is already in the list, it should be excluded.

Update 2.  Colchester Right to Life (no. 20) is also a chapter of Life Nova Scotia (see here and update 1).

Update 3.  Numbering (in red) added to make the count easier.


Updates to this post and discussion of its items are welcome in the comments. But please note my comments policy.

Wednesday, August 20, 2008

Another McVety front (taking us to 25)


The 12th item in Rushfeldt's list is the Canadian College of Christian Councilors (sic). If you type the name correctly into google you'll find your way to Canadian College of Christian Counsellors, which is an accreditation agency (as you may have guessed) for Christian counsellors.

Membership doesn't seem very demanding:
  • A minimum of a Bachelor's degree in counselling or related field.
  • Complete and submit all sections of the CCCC application forms, with references.
  • Be willing to adhere to CCCC ethical standards for practice.
  • Attend the CCCC general meetings
  • Support the goals and objectives of the CCCC
  • Maintain high educational standards
  • Pay the required fees
Where is the check to be sent?
    Canadian College of Christian Counsellors
    50 Gervais Drive
    Toronto, Ontario
    M3C 1Z3
    (416) 391 5000
For those of you who have been paying attention, you'll recognize that address as the home of several McVety fronts (here and here):
So, McVety's now got at least five organizations in the list. We have, however, established the principle of only one front per customer. This takes the list to 24?

In other news

Blinky returns.

Tuesday, August 19, 2008

One meeelion members! (but no more than 26 groups)

Dr. McVety says one million members, but this is difficult to substantiate, or determine its relevance.

In some of the groups, one assumes that the membership is behind the leadership. (McVety's Canada Christian College, which has an enrolment in the hundreds, presumably accept his leadership in such matters).

But another in the list is the Catholic Diocese of Calgary, and while constitutionally this is a dictatorship under the bishop appointed by the Church, the weight of the Bishop's statement within the Canadian political context depends on whether or not he is communicating the views of the rank and file Catholics under his charge. Although one might assume that many if not most Catholics accept the Church's teaching that abortion is sin and therefore would oppose Morgentaler's Order of Canada. But even among those how many will back the extreme demand that the Chief Justice be sacked because she chaired the committee that granted this award? And does McVety's one meeellion members count all of them? Because not all of them agree with their Bishop on this.

And then, of course, we have the problem that many of these 42 organizations are tiny, tiny, tiny. Consider the group named Active Christians Engaging Society (A.C.E.S.), the 5th organization named in Rushfeldt's list. Who are they? According to the Sudbury Christian Messenger, A.C.E.S. is a Sudbury group established to facilitate communication between church groups in Sudbury. The members of the A.C.E.S. team are named on this page. All four of them. ... Four.

The question, of course, is how large an "organization" has to be before it's worth including in a national news story claiming to show seething unhappiness in the masses. Four clearly misses by a couple orders of magnitude. Which leaves us at 26.