Sunday, August 31, 2008

McCain's big gamble

Judging from the American Social Security Administration's online tables (here), the actuarial probability that an American male of (say) 72 years of age, would die during a year is 3.2978%; one of 73 years, 3.6086%; one of 74 years, 3.9506%; one of 75 years, 4.3415%.

Taking these together over (say) four years, the odds of a 72-year old man dying in the next four years would be 19.1491%, or about one in five.

So, America. Feeling lucky?

Update. Via email I was reminded that the odds for the next four years are even worse: 77th year, 4.7789%; 78th, 5.2464%; 79th, 5.7413%; 80th, 6.2789%. The odds of a 76 year old dying before the end of his 80th year is 22.05%. And the odds of a 72 year-old dying within two terms, 41.2%.