election effect on net-opposition to ssm (in progress)

As I mentioned (here), Vote Marriage endorsed 208 candidates in this election. Of these, 113 won. Of the winners, 99 were incumbants (mostly Conservatives, and a few Liberals) who voted against ssm last time. The fourteen new MPs who are on record against same-sex marriage are these. Five of these are replacing MPs who were against SSM:

1. Colin Mayes (Okanagan—Shuswap, CPC), replaces retiring Darrell Stinson (CPC, anti-ssm), net effect 0.
   
2. Edward Fast (Abbotsford, CPC), replaces retiring Randy White (CPC, anti-ssm), net effect 0.
   
3. Michael Allen (Tobique—Mactaquac, CPC), defeats Andy Savoy (Lib., anti-ssm), net effect 0
   
4. Richard Dykstra (St. Catharines, CPC), defeated Walt Lastewka (Lib., anti-ssm), net effect 0
   
5. Ron Cannan (Kelowna--Lake Country, CPC), replaces retiring Werner Schmit (CPC, anti-ssm), net effect 0.

Nine replaced pro-ssm MPs.

1. David Sweet (Ancaster--Dundas--Flamborough—Westdale, CPC), defeats Russ Powers (Lib., pro-ssm), net effect +1
   
2. David Van Kesteren (Chatham-Kent—Essex, CPC), defeats Jerry Pickard (Lib., pro-ssm), net effect +1
   
3. Laurie Hawn (Edmonton Center, CPC) defeats Anne McLellan (Lib., pro-ssm), net effect +1
   
4. Fabian Manning (Avalon, CPC), replaces Efford (Lib., pro-ssm), net effect +1
   
5. Harold Albrecht (Kitchener—Conestoga, CPC), defeats Lynn Myers (Lib., pro-ssm), net effect +1
   
6. Maxime Bernier (Beauce, CPC), defeats Claude Drouin (Lib., pro-ssm), net effect +1
   
7. Pierre Lemieux (Glengarry--Prescott--Russell, CPC) , replaces retired Don Boudria (Lib., pro-ssm), net effect +1
   
8. Rod Bruinooge (Winnipeg South, CPC), defeated Reg Alcock (Lib., pro-ssm), net effect +1
   
9. Tony Clement (Parry Sound--Muskoka, CPC), replaces Andy Mitchell (Lib., pro-ssm), net effect +1

On the other hand, there were anti-ssm marriage MPs, who were endorsed by Vote Marriage, who have been replaced by pro-ssm candidates. Here is a list:

1. Dawn Black (NDP) defeated Paul Forseth (CPC, New Westminister), net effect, -1
   
2. Penny Priddy (NDP) replaced deceased Chuck Cadman (IND, Surrey North), net effect, -1
   
3. Alex Atamanenko (NDP) replaced retired Jim Gouk (CPC, BC Southern Int.), net effect, -1
   
4. Catherine Bell (NDP) replaced John Duncan (CPC, Vanc. Island N.), net effect, -1
   
5. Irene Mathyssen (NDP) replaces Pat O'Brien (Lib., London-Fanshawe.), net effect, -1
   
6. Garth Turner (CPC, pro-ssm) defeated Gary Carr (Lib., anti-ssm), net effect, -1
   
7. Sukh Dhaliwal (Lib.) replaces Gurmant Grewal (CPC, anti-ssm) in Newton-North Delta. According to this he "promises to uphold the Charter of Rights and Freedoms on the issue of same-sex marriage." Net effect -1.
   
8. Omar Alghabra (Lib.) replaces retired Carolyn Parrish (Lib., anti-ssm) in Mississauga—Erindale This story implies that he is pro-ssm. Net effect -1
   

(I assume here that all NDPers are pro-ssm.) Some other ridings where MPs changed with possible effects:

1. Bev Shipley (CPC, not endorsed by Vote Marriage) replaces retired Rosie-Marie Ur (Lib, anti-ssm) in Lambton-etc. His comments here make me assume he is anti-ssm. The net effect is 0.
   
2. Mike Allen (CPC, not endorsed by Vote Marriage) defeated Andy Savoy (Lib., anti-ssm) in Tobique-Mactaquac. His web-page says he will 'defend traditional marriage', which clearly means he is anti-ssm. Net effect is 0.
   
3. Blair Wilson (Lib.) replaces John Reynolds (CPC, anti-ssm) in West Vancouver-etc. (Update: in the comments Ian points out that Wilson's website implies that he supports ssm. Net effect -1
   
4. Gary Merasty (Lib.) replaces Jeremy Harrison (CPC, anti-ssm) in Desnethé-etc.
   
5. Tina Keeper (Lib.) replaces Bev Desjarlais (NDP, anti-ssm) in Churchill
   
6. Jacques Gourde (CPC, not endorsed by Vote Marriage) defeated Odina Desrochers (BQ, anti-ssm) in Lotbinière-etc.
   

The base from which to compare is the series of votes on ssm in June 2005, when ssm passed by 158 to 133, with 16 absentees.

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