Showing posts with label 2015. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2015. Show all posts

Sunday, October 11, 2015

Strategic voting Kootenay-Columbia: vote NDP

Strategic voting in Kootenay-Columbia
Strategic voting in Kootenay-Columbia
As I pointed out in my post on strategic voting in North Okanagan—Shuswap, some might be surprised that some of these ridings in the BC Interior are competitive enough.

Such is also the case in Kootenay-Columbia, which includes Cranbrook, Revelstoke, Kimberley, Fernie, Golden, Sparwood, and Nelson.  In the last election, vote splitting wasn't a factor: the Conservative won with 50% of the vote, compared to 39% NDP, 4% Liberal, and 6% Green.

A redrawing of the riding, however, has brought 4000 net NDP votes into the riding and this could make a difference.

An Environics Poll from September 19, 2015 placed the NDP and Conservatives in a dead head: Con (37%), NDP (37%), Lib. (15%), and Green (11%).

This suggests that to avoid vote splitting, strategic voters should support the NDP.

Update. Votetogether.ca has now endorsed the NDP for strategic voters in Kootenay-Columbia.

Some recent posts:
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Saturday, October 10, 2015

Strategic voting in Kanata-Carleton: vote Liberal

Strategic tactical voting in Kanata-Carleton
Strategic voting in Kanata-Carleton
The riding of Kanata-Carleton in Ottawa is a new riding formed out of pieces of the old riding of Carleton—Mississippi Mills, which has been a fairly safe Conservative.  Despite this, it is shaping up to be a close race. (See a news story about this here).

In the last election, Gordon O'Connor received 57% of the vote, followed by the Liberal with 24%, the NDP with 15%, and the Green with 4%.  Gordon O'Connor, however, decided not to stand for re-election.

A recently conducted poll suggests that this is a tight race between Conservative Walter Pamic (whose past militant anti-unionism has become controversial) and Liberal Karen McCrimmon.


 Clearly strategic voters will want to support the Liberals here and avoid the vote splitting.

Some recent posts:


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Strategic voting in North Okanagan—Shuswap: vote NDP

Strategic tactical voting in North Okanagan—Shuswap
Strategic voting in
North Okanagan—Shuswap
Some might be surprised that North Okanagan—Shuswap, which includes the cities of Vernon, Armstrong, Coldstream, and Salmon Arm, is included among ridings where strategic voting could make a difference.  After all, in the last election the Conservatives were elected with an easy 55%, compared to 27% for the NDP, 7% for the Liberals, and 11% for the Greens.

Several important factors contribute to change.  First, the incumbent Colin Mayes decided not to run; second, Conservative support in BC has softened; and third, the Conservative nominee Mel Arnold seems to be a climate change denier.  

A recent poll conducted by Oracle Research supports the view that change is afoot in North Okanagan—Shuswap. It finds the NDP in front with 41% support, the Conservatives with 38%, Liberals at 12% and Greens at 9%.  If strategic voters want to avoid vote splitting in North Okanagan—Shuswap, they should support the NDP.

Update.  A new poll from Environics confirms that strategic voters in North Okanagan-Shuswap should vote NDP:

Strategic voting in North Okanagan Shuswap


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Strategic voting in Cowichan—Malahat—Langford: vote NDP

Update. Oct. 15. A new poll for BC from Insights West (pdf) confirms that the in Cowichan—Malahat—Langford are best placed to defeat the Conservatives:

Strategic voting in Cowichan—Malahat—Langford
Oct. 15 Poll for Cowichan—Malahat—Langford: vote NDP




Strategic tactical voting in Cowichan—Malahat—Langford
Strategic voting in Cowichan-Malahat-Langford
Another new riding in BC is Cowichan—Malahat—Langford, which includes parts of the old ridings of Nanaimo—Cowichan and Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca, both of which elected NDP MPs in the last election.

 If the votes of the last election were cast in the current boundaries, the result would have been very close: Con 43%, NDP 43.5%, Lib 6%, Green 7%.

Recent polls confirm that it is close. An Insight West poll released Oct. 7 places support as: Con 21%, NDP 26%, Lib 10%, Green 14%, with 26% undecided.

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Strategic voting in Burnaby North—Seymour: vote NDP

Update for Oct. 15.  A new poll for BC from Insights West (pdf) confirms that strategic voters in Burnaby North—Seymour should vote NDP:

Strategic voting in Burnaby North—Seymour
Poll for Burnaby North—Seymour: vote NDP



Strategic voting in Burnaby North—Seymour
Strategic voting in Burnaby North—Seymour
Burnaby North—Seymour is a new riding in BC. Its creation has been controversial, since it combines parts of Burnaby—Douglas (which tend towards the NDP) and parts of North Vancouver such as Deep Cove and Seymour (which is reliably Conservative).

I f we transpose the results of the 2011 election into the new riding, the results would be CPC 44%, NDP 35%, Lib 16%, Green 4%.

A recent poll in the riding (Insights West, Sept. 9-13) suggests the riding is very close:  CPC 33%, NDP 37%, Lib 21%, Green 9%. 

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Friday, October 09, 2015

Strategic voting in Brantford-Brant: vote NDP

Vote Splitting in Brantford-Brant
Strategic voting in Brantford-Brant
Brantford—Brant is another Ontario riding where strategic voting could be important.  It is interesting because it was for a long time the riding of NDP stalwart Derek Blackburn, then of Liberal cabinet minister Jane Stewart, and has been Conservative since 2008. In addition to Brantford and Brant, it includes the Six Nations.

In 2011 the election results were fairly solidly Conservative (49%), as compared to Lib (19%), NDP (29%), and Green (3%).  

An Environics poll of Sept. 20 placed support for the parties at Con (39%), Lib (25%), NDP (30%), and Green (6%). In Brantford-Brant, strategic voters should avoid vote splitting by supporting the NDP.

Some recent posts:
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Strategic voting in London North Centre: vote Liberal

London North Centre is a very good example of the consequences of the splitting  of the anti-Conservative vote.
Strategic tactical voting in London North Centre
Strategic voting in
London North Centre

In the 2011 election, Conservative Susan Truppe was elected with 37% of the vote; the Liberals were at 34%; the NDP, 25%; the Greens, 4%. 

Since the start of the Election there have been three polls in the riding:
  • Environics (Oct. 4): Con (32%), Lib. (48%), NDP (15%), Green (5%)
  • Environics (Sept. 20): Con (35%), Lib. (35%), NDP (25%), Green (5%)
  • Environics (Aug. 16): Con (32%), Lib. (34%), NDP (27%), Green (5%)
The most recent suggests that the Liberals will take the seat; the two earlier polls, however, imply that vote splitting could again allow the election of a Conservative here against the wishes of most voters.  Strategic voters should therefore vote Liberal here.

Some recent posts:
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Strategic voting in London West: vote Liberal

Strategic tactical voting in London West
Strategic voting in London West
Another riding where vote-splitting may result in the election of a Conservative is London West, which is currently represented by the Conservative Ed Holder.

His election in 2011 benefited from vote splitting. He received 45% of the vote; the Liberals 25% and the NDP 27%.

Where should strategic voters park their vote?  An Environics poll for London West from Oct. 4 found voters divided thus: Con (38%), Lib. (37%), NDP (30%), Green (5%), which suggests strongly that to avoid vote splitting, tactical voters should support the Liberals.

Some recent posts:
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Strategic voting in Essex: vote NDP

Strategic tacitcal voting in Essex
Strategic voting in Essex
The riding of Essex in southwest Ontario has had a Conservative MP, Jeff Watson, since 2004.

In the last election, the results were CPC (48%), NDP  (35%), Lib.  (14%), Green  (2%).

An Environics poll taken Oct. 2-5, however, suggests that the Conservatives could be vulnerable in Essex if strategic voters rally behind the NDP candidate.  It found voting intentions as CPC (38%), NDP  (37%), Lib.  (22%), Green  (4%).

Strategic voters who want to avoid a Conservative victory through vote-splitting should vote NDP.

Some recent posts:
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Thursday, October 08, 2015

Strategic voting in Edmonton Riverbend: vote NDP

Strategic tactical voting in Edmonton Riverbend
Strategic voting in Edmonton Riverbend
Edmonton Riverbend is another riding where strategic voting could make a difference.

It is a new constituency, being more or less coterminous with what used to be Edmonton-Leduc, represented by long time MP, James Rajotte.  This has always been a safe CPC seat.  If the 2011 results of those three ridings were cast within the new riding boundaries, the results would be (link): Con (59%), NDP (21%), Lib (17%), Green (5%).

Those results should imply that the seat is relatively safe, and recent polling suggests that the riding might still go Conservative.  An Environics poll from Sept. 16 suggests that strategic voting could make a difference.  It found that support in the riding was Con (44%), NDP (34%), Lib (18%), Green (4%).

Strategic voters in Edmonton-Riverbend, therefore, should vote NDP.

Other recent posts:

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    Strategic voting in Edmonton Manning

    Strategic voting in Edmonton Manning
    Strategic voting in Edmonton Manning
    Edmonton Manning is a new riding created out of parts of Edmonton-Sherwood Park, Edmonton East and Edmonton-St. Albert.

    If the 2011 results of those three ridings were cast within the new riding boundaries, the results would be (link): Con (55%), NDP (27%), Lib (9%), Green (3%).

    Those results should imply that the seat is relatively safe.  The results of the provincial election from last May, however, belie that assumption, since the NDP received a stunning 72.5% of the votes cast.

    Recent polling suggests that the riding might still go Conservative.  An Environics poll from Sept. 16 suggests that strategic voting could make a difference.  It found that support in the riding was Con (45%), NDP (33%), Lib (18%), Green (4%).

    Strategic voters in Edmonton-Manning, therefore, should vote NDP.

    Other recent posts:
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    Strategic voting in Edmonton Griesbach: vote NDP

    Strategic voting in Edmonton Griesbach
    Strategic voting in Edmonton Griesbach
    Another Edmonton riding where strategic voting could make a difference is Edmonton-Griesbach.  It is a new riding formed out of parts of the ridings of old Edmonton East and St. Albert-Edmonton, both of which have been reliable Conservative ridings.  If the results of the 2011 election are redistributed into the new riding, the results would be Con (52%),  NDP (37.5%),  Lib (7%), Green  (3%).

    The growing strength of the NDP in Edmonton have shaken this up and strategic voting could make a difference. An Environics poll from Aug. 16 found support at: Con (32%),  NDP (48%),  Lib (15%), Green  (5%).

    Strategic voters in Edmonton-Griesbach should vote NDP.

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    Strategic voting in Edmonton Centre: vote NDP


    The election of the Notley-NDP in Alberta was one of this year's biggest election stories. In Edmonton, however, the NDP has been strong for a long time.  Anne Duncan has turned Edmonton-Strathcona into one of the NDP's safest seats, and they are competitive in other adjacent ridings.

    Strategic voting in Edmonton Centre
    Strategic voting in Edmonton Centre
    One of them is Edmonton Centre, which at one time was represented by Liberal Anne McLellan, and has been held by Conservative Laurie Hawn since 2006.  Hawn has retired and the seat is now open.

    The ridings boundaries have been slightly redrawn, and the results of the last election in the boundaries (here) would be Con (46%), Lib. (24%), NDP (26%), Green (4%).

    There have been several polls done within the riding in recent days.
    These polls, combined with the NDP ground strength in Edmonton, suggest that the strategic voter in Edmonton Centre should vote NDP.

    Update. Conservative James Cumming in Edmonton Centre tells voter to renounce his heritage.

    Update 2.  A new poll shows NDP lead:

    Strategic Edmonton-Centre
    Strategic Edmonton-Centre


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    Strategic voting in Mississauga Erin Mills: Vote Liberal

    Strategic voting in Mississauga Erin Mills
    Strategic voting in
    Mississauga Erin Mills
    The riding of Mississauga-Erin Mills is the new name for what used to be Mississauga-Erindale, which has been represented since 2008 by Conservative MP Robert Dechert.

    In the 2011 election the vote split (link): Con (47%) / Lib (39%) / NDP (16%) / Green (4%).
      This is another riding where strategic voting could make a difference if NDPers and Greens vote Liberal.

      Other recent posts:
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      Wednesday, October 07, 2015

      Strategic voting in Misissauga East-Cooksville: vote Liberal

      The riding of Misissauga East-Cooksville is currently represented by Conservative MP Wladyslaw Lizon, who in 2011 defeated the Liberal Peter Fonseca by some 600 votes.  This is a rematch.

      Strategic-tactical voting in Mississauga East-Cooksville
      Strategic voting in
      Mississauga East-Cooksville
      Like most ridings in the GTA, the riding boundaries have been redrawn.  If the 2011 votes are recast in the new ridings, the result would be (link): Con (44%) / Lib (36%) / NDP (18%) / Green (2%).
        This is a riding where strategic voting could make a difference if NDPers and Greens vote Liberal.

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        Strategic voting in Mississauga Centre: vote Liberal

        Tactical voting in Mississauga Centre
        Strategic voting in Mississauga Centre
        Mississauga Centre is another riding in which tactical voting makes sense.  Like most ridings in southern Ontario, its boundaries have been redrawn. If the 2011 results are recast into the new boundaries (link), the results would have been: Con (42%) /Lib (37%) / NDP (17%) / Green (2%).

        A poll of Mississauga Centre was conducted by Forum on Oct. 4, which found voting intentions: Con (35%) / Lib (44%) / NDP (16%) / Green (5%).

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        Strategic Voting in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas: pledge votegether.ca

        Strategic Tactical Voting in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas
        Strategic Voting in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas
        Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas is a newly formed riding that incorporates parts of the old Ancaster-Dundas-Flamorough-Westdale riding.

        The rural polls of Flamborough were removed and joined with Glanborough to form a new riding. In the process of doing this, however, some 12,000 Conservative votes were moved out of the Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas.  In their place were added a good piece of the western mountain, which had in 2011 been solidly NDP.

        If the votes from 2011 are redistributed in the new riding (see here), the result is CPC 40%, NDP 28%, Liberal 25%.  Given the recent campaign in Ontario where the Liberals are up and the NDP are down, who has the best chance of defeating the Conservatives?

        Votetogether.ca is collecting pledges from strategic voters and, once there are 500 pledges, they will crowd-fund a poll.  Strategic voters inHamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas are best advised to enter their pledge at votetogether.ca/riding/35038/, contribute to the crowdfunding if and when it is started, and vote strategically once more is known.

        Update.  There is now a poll showing a Liberal lead.  See more here: Strategic Voting: Ham-West-Ancaster-Dundas: new poll.

        Other recent posts:
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        Strategic voting in New Brunswick (recap)

        Strategic tactical voting in New Brunswick
        Strategic voting in New Brunswick
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        Strategic voting in Fundy Royal: vote NDP

        The riding of Fundy-Royal in New Brunswick is a long shot for strategic voters.
        Strategic-tactical voting in Fundy Royal
        Fundy Royal
        • the 2011 vote break-down in Fundy Royal was: Con (58%) / Lib (10%) / NDP (27%) / Green (5%)
        • the strong second place finish of the NDP combined with a weakening of Conservative support just backing the NDP here.
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        Tuesday, October 06, 2015

        Strategic voting in Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe: vote Liberal

        The riding of Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe in New Brunswick offers another opportunity for strategic voters to work together to defeat the Conservatives.
        Tactical voting in Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe
        Strategic voting in
        Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe
        • In 2011, the breakdown of votes (link) was: Con (37%) / Lib (31%) / NDP (28%) / Green (4%)
        • Eric Grenier at 308.com predicts that Liberals (whose support in Atlantic Canada has increased since 2011) will take the riding
        • Strategic voters in Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe should vote Liberal
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