Wednesday, October 07, 2015

Strategic voting in Fundy Royal: vote NDP

The riding of Fundy-Royal in New Brunswick is a long shot for strategic voters.
Strategic-tactical voting in Fundy Royal
Fundy Royal
  • the 2011 vote break-down in Fundy Royal was: Con (58%) / Lib (10%) / NDP (27%) / Green (5%)
  • the strong second place finish of the NDP combined with a weakening of Conservative support just backing the NDP here.

Tuesday, October 06, 2015

Strategic voting in Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe: vote Liberal

The riding of Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe in New Brunswick offers another opportunity for strategic voters to work together to defeat the Conservatives.
Tactical voting in  Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe
Strategic voting in
Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe
  • In 2011, the breakdown of votes (link) was: Con (37%) / Lib (31%) / NDP (28%) / Green (4%)
  • Eric Grenier at 308.com predicts that Liberals (whose support in Atlantic Canada has increased since 2011) will take the riding
  • Strategic voters in Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe should vote Liberal

Strategic voting in Saint John-Rothesay: vote Liberal

Tactical voting in  Saint John-Rothesy
Strategic voting in
Saint John-Rothesy
Continuing our survey of strategic voting opportunities in New Brunswick, we turn our attention to Saint John-Rothesay
  • in the last election, the electoral results in Saint John-Rothesay were: Con (50%) / Lib (16%) / NDP (31%) / Green (3%)
  • a recent local poll conducted by Environics found voting intentions as follows:
    • Con (38%) / Lib (33%) / NDP (25%) / Green (4%)
  • This suggests that strategic voters in Saint-John Rothesay should vote Liberal.

Strategic Voting in Madawaska-Restigouche: vote Liberal

Another New Brunswick riding where strategic voting could make a difference is Madawaska-Restigouche, which includes the towns of Edmundston, Campbellton, Dalhousie, Addington, and Saint-Quentin.  Its MP, Bernard Valcourt, is in a close race with the Liberals.
Tactical voting in Madawaska-Restigouche
Strategic voting in Madawaska-Restigouche

Strategic-voting in Mississauga-Malton: vote Liberal

Mississauga Malton is a new riding in Ontario, which encompasses parts of what used to be three ridings—Bramalea-Gore-Malton, Mississauga-Brampton South and Mississauga-Streetsville—all of which voted Conservative in the last election.

Recasting the votes of the last election onto the current boundaries, however, would have resulted in a very tight race in which the Conservatives won by just over 200 votes (link): Con (37.4%) / Lib (36.8%) / NDP (23.4%) / Green (2%).

Current polling gives the Liberals a distinct edge. A Forum poll (pdf) from Oct. 2 expressed support as Con (29%) / Lib (44%) / NDP (20%) / Green (5%).

Clearly strategic voters here should vote Liberal.

Update: 

Strategic voting in Fredericton: vote Liberal

We have seen that strategic voting could play a decisive role in several swing ridings in Winnipeg and Saskatchewan.  Tactical voting may be useful several ridings in New Brunswick, including Fredericton, which includes the towns of Oromocto, Lincoln, Burton, New Maryland, and Minto.
Tactical voting Fredericton
Strategic voting Fredericton
  • The results of the 2011 election in Fredericton were: Con (47%) / Lib (24%)* / NDP (24%) / Green (4%)
  • two local polls of voting intentions in Fredericton have suggested that the Conservatives are vulnerable: 
    • Aug. 16 (Environics): Con (29%) / Lib (34%) / NDP (26%) / Green (12%) 
    • Sept. 19 (Environics): Con (32%) / Lib (37%) / NDP (20%) / Green (10%)
  • The best place to cast a strategic vote in Fredericton is with the Liberals

Strategic voting in Saskatchewan (recap)

Tactical voting Saskatchewan
Strategic voting Saskatchewan
To recap our earlier posts, and to add a few more ridings, strategic voters in Saskatchewan are best advised to





Strategic voting in Saskatoon-University: Vote NDP

The riding of Saskatoon-University is turning out to be another race where strategic voting could make a difference.
Tactical voting in Saskatoon-University
Strategic voting in Saskatoon-University
  • Like many ridings in Saskatchewan, the riding has had its boundaries redrawn.
  • If the results of the 2011 election are recast in the new boundaries (as has done by electionprediction.org) the vote would have been: Con (49%) / Lib (10%) / NDP (38%) / Green (3%)
  • Two recent polls have surveyed voting intentions (link):
    • In August: Con (34%) / Lib (22%) / NDP (41%) / Green (4%)
    • In Sept: Con (37%) / Lib (22%) / NDP (37%) / Green (4/4%)
The September polls suggest the race is quite close and strategic voters should vote NDP.

Update.  Votetogether.ca has now endorsed the NDP for Strategic voting in Saskatoon-University.

Other posts:

Monday, October 05, 2015

Strategic voting Regina--Lewvan: vote NDP

Strategic voting could be important in Saskatchewan in the current federal election.  I have already pointed out that tactical voters in Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River should vote NDP.

Strategic voting Regina--Lewvan
Strategic voting Regina--Lewvan
The same advice holds for the riding of Regina-Lewvan: vote NDP.  The boundaries have been changed since the last election. Electionprediction, which currently lists the riding as too-close-to-call, redistributed the votes from 2011 into the new riding and found they would be Con (44%) / Lib (8%) / NDP (45%) / Green (3%).  A recent conducted poll of the riding, however, placed the Conservative support at 40%, the Liberals at 21% and the NDP at 34%. Eric Grenier at threehundredeight.com predicts that the NDP will take the seat, but rates its chances at only 53%.

To defeat the Conservatives in Regina-Lewan, voters should cast a strategic vote for the NDP.

Other posts:

Strategic voting in Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River: Vote NDP

Strategic voters in Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River should vote NDP.

In earlier posts, I considered how tactical voters should vote in Winnipeg, with the following recommendations:

Strategic voting in Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River

Tactical voting in Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River
Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill
Moving west to Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River in Saskatchewan, the strategic decision is clearer.  
  • redistributing  the 2011 vote into the new riding boundaries would give the breakdown as:  Con (47%) / Lib (5%) / NDP (46%) / Green (2%)
  • threehundredeight.com gives the NDP a 56% chance of carrying the riding
  • the NDP have the best chance to take this riding away from the Conservatives

Strategic voting in Winnipeg (recap)

tactical voting winnipeg
Those who want to vote strategically in the coming election are often find it challenging to decide which party to vote for. This is again true in the current election.

In a series of posts I have reviewed five Winnipeg ridings where strategic voting could make a difference in voting.  These are:

Strategic Voting in Winnipeg South: vote Liberal

Winnipeg has become an important battle ground in the recent election. In the last election, in 2011, six of the eight ridings that include part of Winnipeg went Conservative.  In five of these, strategic voting could make a difference.
Tacitcal voting Winnipeg South
Strategic voting Winnipeg South

Winnipeg South: vote Liberal

  • CPC incumbent Rod Bruinooge is not running. 
  • electionprediction.org regards it as too close to call
  • threehundredandeight.com gives the Liberals an 90+% chance of taking the riding 
  • in 2011, the Liberals came in second with twice as many votes as the NDP
  • again, strategic voters should back the Liberal.

Strategic Voting in Saint Boniface-Saint Vital: vote Liberal

Saint Boniface-Saint Vital: vote Liberal

Tactical voting Saint Boniface-Saint Vital
Tactical voting in
Saint Boniface-Saint Vital
    In recent posts, I suggested that tactical voters in Elmwood-Transcona should vote NDP, that in Winnipeg South Centre, tactical voters are best advised to vote Liberal, and that in Kildonan-St. Paul, tactical votes should go to the NDP. In this post, I will argue that in Saint Boniface-Saint-Vital, strategic voters should back the Liberals.
      • Conservative MP Shelley Glover has decided not to run for re-election.
      • electionprediction.org calls election for the Liberals
      • Mainstreet/Postmedia poll on Sept. 25 placed the Liberals ahead at 38% of decided voters in Saint Boniface-Saint Vital, compared to 25% for the CPC and 14% for the NDP. Undecided are 20%.
      • strategic voters should support the Liberal

      Sunday, October 04, 2015

      Strategic Voting in Kildonan-St. Paul: Vote NDP

      Kildonan-St. Paul: vote NDP

      Strategic voting in Kildonan-St. Paul
      Strategic voting in Kildonan-St. Paul
      In recent posts, I suggested strategic voters in Elmwood-Transcona should vote NDP, and in Winnipeg South Centre, strategic voters are best advised to vote Liberal. In this post, I will argue that although Kildonan-St. Paul is a long shot, tactical voters should back the NDP.
      • The incumbent MP for Kildonan-St. Paul, Conservative Joy Smith, has decided not to run for re-election;
      • threehundredandeight.com gives CPC an 80% chance of holding the riding;
      • in 2011, the CPC got 58% of the vote; the NDP, 30%; and the Libs, 8%. 
      • for further developments, consult the votetogether.ca profile and the ongoing discussion electionprediction.org 
      • strategic voters should probably back the NDP candidate

      Strategic voting in Winnipeg South Centre: vote Liberal

      Winnipeg South Centre: vote Liberal

      In my last post, I urged strategic voters in Elmwood-Transcona to vote NDP. In the nearby riding of Winnipeg South Centre, strategic voters should vote Liberal.

      Strategic voting in Winnipeg South Center
      Strategic voting in Winnipeg South Center
      • The Conservative incumbent is Joyce Bateman, who was recently in the news for reading a prepared list of 'Enemies of Israel' at a B'nai Brith sponsored campaign debate
      • Bateman captured the seat in 2011 by less than 700 votes. The results were Con 39%, Lib 37%, NDP 18%. 
      • a poll conducted by votetogether.ca Sept. 18-21 places the Liberal candidate (Jim Carr) ahead at 38%, with the Conservative at 31%, and the NDP at 23%
      • threehundredandeight.com projects the Liberal as having a 63% of winning
      • electionprediction.org projects the riding as a Liberal win
      • strategic voters would do best to back the Liberal candidate, Jim Carr.
      Although the prospects to defeat the Conservatives are good here, tactical voting is still advisable here.  According to a CBC report, the boundaries of the riding have been changed in the Conservatives favour.

        In sum, strategic voters would do best to back the Liberal candidate, Jim Carr.

        Update.  Votetogether has now endorsed the Liberals for strategic voters in Winnipeg South Centre.

          Strategic voting in Elmwood-Transcona: vote NDP

          Strategic voting in Elmwood-Transcona: vote NDP

          Strategic Voting in Elmwood-Transcona
          Strategic voting in Elmood-Transcona
          Winnipeg has become an important battle ground in the recent election. In the last election, in 2011, six of the eight ridings that include part of Winnipeg went Conservative. In several of these, strategic voting could make a difference.  One of these is Elmwood-Transcona.
          • Elmwood-Transcona is currently held by a CPC incumbent, Lawrence Toet, who captured the seat in 2011 with a margin of 284 votes;
          • the NDP candidate is Daniel Blaikie, son of Bill Blaikie, who represented Elmwood-Transcona from 1979 to 2008
          • two polls taken in Elmwood-Transcona conducted by votetogether.ca in August and September place the NDP support at 37% and 39%; the CPC at 30% and 39%; the Liberals at 25% and 20%; and Greens were 6% and 4%;
          • threehundredandeight.com projects the NDP have a 63% of winning;
          • see the discussion at electionprediction.org
          • strategic voters in Elmwood-Transcona should vote NDP

          Update on Elmwood-Transcona

          The CBC has a story on the NDP campaign in Elmwood-Transcona, which is pushing Blaikie as the strategic choice


          Strategic voting in Elmwood-Transcona
          NDP literature pushes strategic voting in Elmwood-Transcona

          Saturday, October 03, 2015

          Who gave CPC Candidate list of 'Enemies of Israel'?

          The Winnipeg Freepress reports (registration needed) that a Jewish audience, to its credit, reacted negatively to the Conservative candidate's attempt to smear Liberals as 'enemies of Israel':
          Bateman, the Conservative MP from Winnipeg South Centre who is running for re-election, was sitting onstage at the Asper Jewish Community Campus in Tuxedo for an all-candidates forum hosted by B'nai Brith. Up until that point in the evening, the crowd of 100 or so had been exceedingly polite and well-behaved.
          Bateman and the other candidates -- Liberal Jim Carr, New Democrat Matt Henderson and Green party candidate Andrew Park -- had performed admirably, tackling questions about the movement to boycott Israel, domestic terrorist threats, re-establishing diplomatic relations with Iran, poverty and the economy. 
          It was all going well until Bateman piqued the ire of the crowd when she starting reading off a list of names from the Liberal campaign -- volunteers, paid staff workers and candidates alike -- who had been identified by the Tories as "enemies" of Israel. As she got to Andrew Leslie -- the decorated retired lieutenant-general from the Canadian Armed Forces running for the Liberals in Ottawa-Orleans -- the crowd erupted with shouts of "shame." 
          Another report of the debate is here

          Friday, September 04, 2015

          Saturday, April 18, 2015

          Less bad than one would have predicted

          Michael Coren, who at times can seem appallingly stupid, has written a column on Ontario's new sex ed curriculum (here).

          Tuesday, February 24, 2015

          Dawg v FD Decision

          A friend of a friend forwarded me a copy of the ruling in Dr. Dawg's defamation case against Roger Smith and Freedominion.

          For those who need a reminder, Dawg had sued Mr. Roger Smith (also known as Peter O'Donnell) for describing him as "one of the Taliban's more vocal supporters" and FD for publishing it.

          The highlights are:
          1. the judge found that these words were indeed defamatory; 
          2. FD was indeed a publisher and therefore responsible for these words (their argument denying this "is disingenuous and ignores reality");
          3. because the words occurred within the context of a wider discussion that was within public interest, it could fall within the scope of a defence of fair comment;
          4. demonstration of malice would prevent a defence of fair comment, but because malice was not the dominant motive, fair comment stands.
          5. All parties are responsible for their own costs.
          All in all, this looks to me like a draw.  Bloggers and other commenters should note that 'malice' and 'fair comment' are terms of art and applied here to a specific interaction.  Reading between the lines, it looks to me like the FDers had a near miss on 'malice'.

          Favourite paragraph?  Obviously §201: 
          Given that the entire point of defamation law is to determine the meaning and effect of words, the defendants submit that an incoherent post cannot have any meaning and therefore cannot defame the plaintiff.
          Heh.

          Update.  Dawg's take here.

          Wednesday, January 28, 2015

          Update on Warman and the Cools post

          The wheels of justice, as the saying goes, grind slowly.

          Long time readers will remember that I spent a good deal of time in 2008 investigating the allegation that Human Rights activist and lawyer, Richard Warman, had written a nasty racist screed about Anne Cools, and concluded that this was not possible:

          1. the IP address used by the author of the Cools post (which had later been used by Warman) was a load-balancing proxy usable by any of Rogers' close to a million customers;
          2. the browser and setup used by author of the Cools Post was different from Warman's in several key ways (here and here); 
          3. the 'expert' opinion presented by Bernard Klatt arguing that Warman was the author of the Cools post was deeply substandard in several ways (here)
          Warman brought a defamation suit against those who had claimed that he wrote that post, and the case has been inching its way through the court.

          I have now seen the Court report related to this case (available here). It dismisses with costs the motion of Levant (the defendant) that Warman surrender 12,000 pages of data without redactions for privilege or relevance.

          One interesting point that I noticed there, which might be added to those above: 
          Two separate Expert Reports (dated December 17, 2009 and April 23, 2010) concluded that (i) there was no evidence Mr. Warman's computer was even turned on the day the Hateful Posting was authored, and (ii) no evidence existed of the Hateful Posting anywhere on Mr. Warman's computer.
          To which my response can only be:

          Monday, May 13, 2013

          Friday, November 16, 2012

          Too cool

          Check it out.

          Wednesday, September 26, 2012

          Wednesday, September 19, 2012

          Blog like a pirate

          In honour of the annual talk like a pirate day:


          Thursday, June 28, 2012

          Wednesday, April 11, 2012

          apropos of nothing


          Aggregators aggregate and make it easier for me to find interesting blog posts from a variety of sources. Belonging to one does not need to imply approval of other blogs; the removal of a blog from the aggregators that I regularly means that I might miss its posts. That makes me sad.

          Saturday, January 07, 2012

          Swedish Government Recognizes File-Sharing Faith as a Religion Read more: http://www.rollingstone.com/culture/blogs/gear-up/swedish-government-recogn

          The Church of Kopimism, a new faith focused on file-sharing, has been officially recognized as a religion by the Swedish government. The church developed from the Young Pirates, a young movement of the Pirate Party in Sweden, who have pushed for the free flow of information online.

          Thursday, December 22, 2011

          Saturday, November 26, 2011

          Two guitar players missed

          BCL (and others) have been discussing Rolling Stone's recent list of the top guitarists, pointing out glaring omissions, including Django Rheinhardt. Here are another two who were somehow passed over.

          Tuesday, November 15, 2011

          Thursday, June 23, 2011

          Saturday, June 18, 2011

          Orwell as Nostradamus


          "She had without exception the most stupid, vulgar, empty mind that he had ever encountered. She had not a thought in her head that was not a slogan, and there was no imbecility, absolutely none that she was not capable of swallowing if the Party handed it out to her."

          Wednesday, May 18, 2011

          Estimating crowd sizes

          There has been rather different estimates of how many people are in this picture:


          The CBC report that the police estimated this crowd at 5000 (here); Lifesite claimed 15,000 (here), and the National Post, 20,000 (here).

          Crowd estimation isn't too difficult a business. The basic procedure is to multiply the crowd density by the area (see the discussion here, from Obama's inauguration)
          "A loose crowd, one where each person is an arm's length from the body of his or her nearest neighbors, needs 10 square feet per person. A more tightly packed crowd fills 4.5 square feet per person. A truly scary mob of mosh-pit density would get about 2.5 square feet per person."
          How many square feet? Google Earth pro does the calculation for us.

          It looks to me like the center walk falls roughly in the 10-square feet per person, and the two sections on the lawn on either side perhaps half that.

          My rough guestimate, then, is
          • 3200 people in the center (32,000 sq. ft. divided by 10 sq. ft. per person)
          • 2550 people in the right-hand wedge (51,000 sq. ft. divided by 20 sq. ft. per person)
          • 2100 people in the left-hand wedge (42,000 sq. ft. divided by 20 sq. ft. per person)
          This puts the total at c. 8000 -- though probably less, since the left- and right-hand wedges are probably smaller and less densely occupied that the above estimates suggest. On the whole, it looks to me like the CBC is closer to being accurate than either Lifesite (who seem keen to inflate for reasons that escape me.)

          Sunday, May 01, 2011

          Strategic voting in Ontario

          There has been some talk about strategic voting. Here are my suggestions for how strategic voters might best cast their ballots in Ontario. These are cases where incumbants are vulnerable and there does seem to be a three way race.

          Ten ridings where strategic voters should vote Liberal

        • Eglinton--Lawrence, where Joseph Volpe had 43.99% in 2008, just 4.74% ahead of the Conservative. (The NDP was at 8.42%)
        • Mississauga South/Mississauga-Sud, where Paul Szabo had 44.22% in 2008, just 4.63% ahead of the Conservative. (The NDP was at 8.85%)
        • Brampton--Springdale, where Ruby Dhalla had 41.04% in 2008, just 1.71% ahead of the Conservative. (The NDP was at 11.57%)
        • Brampton West/Brampton-Ouest, where Andrew Kania had 40.33% in 2008, just 0.43% ahead of the Conservative. (The NDP was at 13.6%)
        • Guelph, where Frank Valeriote had was at 32.22% in 2008, just 3.04% ahead of the Conservative. (The NDP was at 16.49%; Greens were at 21%)
        • Kitchener--Waterloo, where the Liberal in 2008 was at 36.03% in 2008, just -0.03% behind of the conservative, who was elected. (The NDP was at 14.73%)
        • Mississauga--Erindale, where 42% in 2008, just -0.71% behind of the Conservative, who was elected. (The NDP was at 8.55%)
        • Oak Ridges--Markham, where 41.52% in 2008, just -0.72% behind of the Conservative, who was elected. (The NDP was at 9.4%)
        • Kitchener Centre/Kitchener-Centre, where 35.94% in 2008, just -0.76% behind of the Conservative, who was elected. (The NDP was at 18.09%)
        • London West/London-Ouest, where 35.42% in 2008, just -3.67% behind of the Conservative, who was elected. (The NDP was at 14.57%)

          Three ridings where strategic voters should vote NDP

        • Sault Ste. Marie, where Tony Martin (NDP) had 40.43% in 2008, just 2.71% ahead of the Conservative. (The Liberals were at 16.76%)
        • Welland, where Malcolm Allen (NDP) had 32.91% in 2008, just 0.59% ahead of the Conservative. (The Liberals were at 27.93%)
        • Oshawa, where Mike Shields NDP had 34.73% in 2008, just 6% behind of the Conservative, who was elected. (The Liberals were at 16.05%)
        • Monday, April 25, 2011

          How much access does neo-nazi psychopath have to Conservative data

          The ARC points out that Michelle Lisson (aka Michelle Erstikaitis), pictured right, seems to be working for Toronto Centre Conservative candidate, Kevin Moore. (Confirmed by BCL; see also DrDawg)

          Two questions.

          First, does Kevin Moore know this about Ms. Erstikaitis/Lisson:
          TORONTO — A disturbed and violent convict who idolizes sex killer Paul Bernardo and Oklahoma City bomber Timothy McVeigh told a judge yesterday she wanted to consent to being declared a dangerous offender.

          Michelle Lyne Erstikaitis, 30, a diagnosed psychopath, told Justice Todd Archibald she wanted to plead guilty to assaulting her boyfriend and agreed to being declared a dangerous offender -- which means an indefinite sentence.
          Second, what material does she have access to? Given that the Conservative Party has a voter-tracking database that tracks what party's lawn sign is in front of whose house, and what kind of pictures are displayed on whose facebook pages, should voters in Toronto Centre be concerned?

          Update. Erstikaitis has been removed from the Conservative campaign (here).

          Saturday, April 23, 2011

          Saturday, April 16, 2011

          Is Conservative Wally Daudrich against government health care?

          Wally DaudrichConservative Candidate in Churchill Wally Daudrich is providing some interesting fodder for bloggers:
          Indeed, I've already pointed out a few eye-brow raisers from Wally's facebook page:
          Now, indeed, the Press has taken notice. See Anti-abortion Tory candidate called Obama worst U.S. president, biggest liar by Jim Bronskill of the Canada Press, who noted this troubling post from Wally Daudrich's facebook page:

          Wally DaudrichBig City Lib is surprised that this was the post that got press' attention. It strikes me, however, that what is especially important is not so much the name calling as the context.

          Daudrich's outburst came following Obama's success in convincing the American congress to pass comprehensive health care bill, a bill (once its implemented) will provide Americans with greater access to more affordable health care. Readers will remember that opponents of the bill manufactured all manner of falsehoods about the legislation, most famously about prospective death panels, but also that the Obama health care fill would fund abortion (which wasn't so, see here, but that's a little beside the point).

          And this, I think, raises a more fundamental question. If Daudrich is opposed to Obama's health care reform, which relies much less on government and much more on private insurance than the Canadian system, what does he make of Canadian medicare?

          Is Conservative Wally Daudrich a Tea Partier?

          Wally DaudrichYesterday BigCity Liberal posted twice on Wally Daudrich, Conservative Candidate in Churchill:
          I see now that deBeauxOs has also noticed Daudrich, asking Did the Con candidate Wally Daudrich learn creative writing from TeaParty?

          The answer, apparently, is yes. His facebook page (which is full of interesting stuff!) lists his activities and interests. There are a number of other eye-brow raisers, to which we may return. For now, however, it seems that Daudrich includes among his activities both the American Tea Party Patriots and its Canadian imitator the Tea Party of Canada.

          Wally Daudrich

          Conservative Wally Daudrich calls the NDP communists

          Yesterday BigCity Liberal posted twice on Wally Daudrich, Conservative Candidate in Churchill:
          We can add to this Glen McGregor at the Ottawa Citizen criticizes Wally Daudrich, for red-baiting in attacking his NDP opponent, Nikki Ashton, as a "Chinese educated socialist". The implication is clear. (She went to a Liberal Arts college in Hong Kong.)

          Sadly, this is not Mr. Daudrich's only such outburst, as a peruse of Wally Daudrich's facebook page shows:



          Calling the NDP communists? That's so, 1980s!

          Monday, April 11, 2011

          Saturday, April 02, 2011

          Conservative candidate Marty Burke scrubs controversial views from website

          Yesterday Scott Tribe blogged about the controversial opinions that Marty Burke, Conservative candidate in Guelph, has shared in various letters-to-the-editor in recent years, including:
          • denouncing the war in Afghanistan "a near worthless operation" undertaken with the purpose of "saving face for a useless Liberal government"
          • making thinly veiled racist criticisms of the choice of Michaëlle Jean as governor general
          Another letter (made in the aftermath of Harper's failure to gain Canada a seat on the United Nation's Security Council) seems to advocated suspending payment of Canada's dues to the UN.

          If Burke didn't understand how out-of-sync with his constituents such views are, he seems to know now. To the left is a copy of his webpage as of a couple weeks ago (webcache via Google). To the right is what he webpage looks like now. All his letters-to-the-editor seem to have been removed.

          Marty Burke
          Marty Burke

          Wednesday, March 30, 2011

          Vote against spam and spammers!

          Bloggers may or may not recognize the name Harry Tsai, the Conservative candidate in Scarborough-Agincourt. He seems to engage in a practice that bloggers universally despise — comment-spamming.

          So, for example, in a MoneySense article on increasing auto premiums, we find Harry Tsai commenting (here) that "You can save $$ on car insurance premium !!" Clicking on the link under his name takes you to the webpage of SID autowatch, a maker of vehicle security systems.

          Similarly, at a Money Canoe article on increasing insurance premiums in Ontario Harry Tsai leaves a nearly identical comment (here) advocating vehicle immobilizers.

          And SID autowatch? Apparently Mr. Tsai has a financial interest. Here is a picture of him manning their promotional booth at an industry function.



          Which brings us to our point: oppose comment-spam by voting against comment-spammers like Harry Tsai!

          Saturday, March 26, 2011

          This day in history.

          Frodo destroys the ring. March 25, 3019 (S.R. 1419)

          The Harper government falls. March 25, 2011.

          Wednesday, March 09, 2011

          Thursday, January 27, 2011

          Apocalypse deferred (indefinitely)


          In 2005, right-wing bloviator and professional Islamophobe Mark Steyn wrote an article for the Jewish World Review with the title ("U.S. can sit back and watch Europe implode"), which adumbrated the argument of his book, America Alone, that Europe was in the process of being overrun by Muslims. Money quote from Steyn's article:
          "By some projections, the EU's population will be 40 percent Muslim by 2025."
          These projections has never been clearly exlained (for some speculation, see here), but (as I've pointed out before) the figures are wildly wrong, as is clear from a a recent study by the PewForum (here), which places the Muslim population of Europe at barely a fraction of Steyn's number:
          "In Europe as a whole, the Muslim share of the population is expected to grow by nearly one-third over the next 20 years, rising from 6% of the region’s inhabitants in 2010 to 8% in 2030."
          The difference is, frankly, enormous and leaves Steyn's analysis is shreds.

          (h/t Dawg)

          Sunday, January 23, 2011

          Harper lowers expectations

          In today's speech celebrating his five years as Prime Minister, Stephen Harper is reported to have said: “We are in this minority government. We haven’t been able to pass what we want to pass. But that doesn’t mean we have forgotten … there will be an elected senate and we will get rid of that wasteful, ineffective long-gun registry.”

          As a wish-list for a future majority this is noteworthy for two reasons. First, it is surprisingly thin: senate reform and the gun registry are pretty small issues in an age where we have Canadian soldiers stationed overseas and a $56 billion dollar deficit.

          The second reason is that, unlike the gun registry (which Harper could kill with a majority), an elected Senate is not. Even with a Parliamentary majority, true senate reform would require a constitutional amendment, and to get that, Harper would have to negotiate with the provinces, and there is no reason to think that this is in the cards.

          Given that Senate Reform is impossible, is this all that Harper can offer in his majority? No gun control?

          Wow.

          Saturday, December 25, 2010

          Santa exposé continued

          Big City Liberal has uncovered some shocking details from Santa's past. Now, at over at Bumblepigs there are pictures about what Santa is up to now, including stealing your beer:

          Thursday, December 02, 2010

          Pretty neat, eh?

          An amazing visualization of the world's economic progress over the last two centuries: