Sunday, April 20, 2008

Probably millions, actually.

I showed last week that the notorious Cools post could be made by almost any of the 700,000 or so subscribers that Rogers had in Ontario in 2003 (see here). Big City Liberal reacted by calling the odds one in a million (almost). In fact, a million may understate.

The 700,000 is refers to the number of Rogers' subscribers in Ontario. Many of those subscriptions, however, will have been hooking-up multiple computers, and many of those computers were accessible by multiple people, and not merely to those within their own households. The post in question was made on the evening of Sept. 5, 2003, which was a Friday, which means that as we begin to calculate the theoretical possibilities, we have to include every household whose in-laws were visiting ("can I check my email really quick?"), had had a friend drop by (etc.), or who had an open wifi for war-drivers.

Once all the possibilities are included, we may be approaching a significant fraction of Ontario's population as possible suspects.