Wednesday, October 07, 2015

Strategic voting in Fundy Royal: vote NDP

The riding of Fundy-Royal in New Brunswick is a long shot for strategic voters.
Strategic-tactical voting in Fundy Royal
Fundy Royal
  • the 2011 vote break-down in Fundy Royal was: Con (58%) / Lib (10%) / NDP (27%) / Green (5%)
  • the strong second place finish of the NDP combined with a weakening of Conservative support just backing the NDP here.

Tuesday, October 06, 2015

Strategic voting in Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe: vote Liberal

The riding of Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe in New Brunswick offers another opportunity for strategic voters to work together to defeat the Conservatives.
Tactical voting in  Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe
Strategic voting in
Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe
  • In 2011, the breakdown of votes (link) was: Con (37%) / Lib (31%) / NDP (28%) / Green (4%)
  • Eric Grenier at 308.com predicts that Liberals (whose support in Atlantic Canada has increased since 2011) will take the riding
  • Strategic voters in Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe should vote Liberal

Strategic voting in Saint John-Rothesay: vote Liberal

Tactical voting in  Saint John-Rothesy
Strategic voting in
Saint John-Rothesy
Continuing our survey of strategic voting opportunities in New Brunswick, we turn our attention to Saint John-Rothesay
  • in the last election, the electoral results in Saint John-Rothesay were: Con (50%) / Lib (16%) / NDP (31%) / Green (3%)
  • a recent local poll conducted by Environics found voting intentions as follows:
    • Con (38%) / Lib (33%) / NDP (25%) / Green (4%)
  • This suggests that strategic voters in Saint-John Rothesay should vote Liberal.

Strategic Voting in Madawaska-Restigouche: vote Liberal

Another New Brunswick riding where strategic voting could make a difference is Madawaska-Restigouche, which includes the towns of Edmundston, Campbellton, Dalhousie, Addington, and Saint-Quentin.  Its MP, Bernard Valcourt, is in a close race with the Liberals.
Tactical voting in Madawaska-Restigouche
Strategic voting in Madawaska-Restigouche

Strategic-voting in Mississauga-Malton: vote Liberal

Mississauga Malton is a new riding in Ontario, which encompasses parts of what used to be three ridings—Bramalea-Gore-Malton, Mississauga-Brampton South and Mississauga-Streetsville—all of which voted Conservative in the last election.

Recasting the votes of the last election onto the current boundaries, however, would have resulted in a very tight race in which the Conservatives won by just over 200 votes (link): Con (37.4%) / Lib (36.8%) / NDP (23.4%) / Green (2%).

Current polling gives the Liberals a distinct edge. A Forum poll (pdf) from Oct. 2 expressed support as Con (29%) / Lib (44%) / NDP (20%) / Green (5%).

Clearly strategic voters here should vote Liberal.

Update: 

Strategic voting in Fredericton: vote Liberal

We have seen that strategic voting could play a decisive role in several swing ridings in Winnipeg and Saskatchewan.  Tactical voting may be useful several ridings in New Brunswick, including Fredericton, which includes the towns of Oromocto, Lincoln, Burton, New Maryland, and Minto.
Tactical voting Fredericton
Strategic voting Fredericton
  • The results of the 2011 election in Fredericton were: Con (47%) / Lib (24%)* / NDP (24%) / Green (4%)
  • two local polls of voting intentions in Fredericton have suggested that the Conservatives are vulnerable: 
    • Aug. 16 (Environics): Con (29%) / Lib (34%) / NDP (26%) / Green (12%) 
    • Sept. 19 (Environics): Con (32%) / Lib (37%) / NDP (20%) / Green (10%)
  • The best place to cast a strategic vote in Fredericton is with the Liberals

Strategic voting in Saskatchewan (recap)

Tactical voting Saskatchewan
Strategic voting Saskatchewan
To recap our earlier posts, and to add a few more ridings, strategic voters in Saskatchewan are best advised to





Strategic voting in Saskatoon-University: Vote NDP

The riding of Saskatoon-University is turning out to be another race where strategic voting could make a difference.
Tactical voting in Saskatoon-University
Strategic voting in Saskatoon-University
  • Like many ridings in Saskatchewan, the riding has had its boundaries redrawn.
  • If the results of the 2011 election are recast in the new boundaries (as has done by electionprediction.org) the vote would have been: Con (49%) / Lib (10%) / NDP (38%) / Green (3%)
  • Two recent polls have surveyed voting intentions (link):
    • In August: Con (34%) / Lib (22%) / NDP (41%) / Green (4%)
    • In Sept: Con (37%) / Lib (22%) / NDP (37%) / Green (4/4%)
The September polls suggest the race is quite close and strategic voters should vote NDP.

Update.  Votetogether.ca has now endorsed the NDP for Strategic voting in Saskatoon-University.

Other posts:

Monday, October 05, 2015

Strategic voting Regina--Lewvan: vote NDP

Strategic voting could be important in Saskatchewan in the current federal election.  I have already pointed out that tactical voters in Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River should vote NDP.

Strategic voting Regina--Lewvan
Strategic voting Regina--Lewvan
The same advice holds for the riding of Regina-Lewvan: vote NDP.  The boundaries have been changed since the last election. Electionprediction, which currently lists the riding as too-close-to-call, redistributed the votes from 2011 into the new riding and found they would be Con (44%) / Lib (8%) / NDP (45%) / Green (3%).  A recent conducted poll of the riding, however, placed the Conservative support at 40%, the Liberals at 21% and the NDP at 34%. Eric Grenier at threehundredeight.com predicts that the NDP will take the seat, but rates its chances at only 53%.

To defeat the Conservatives in Regina-Lewan, voters should cast a strategic vote for the NDP.

Other posts:

Strategic voting in Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River: Vote NDP

Strategic voters in Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River should vote NDP.

In earlier posts, I considered how tactical voters should vote in Winnipeg, with the following recommendations:

Strategic voting in Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River

Tactical voting in Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River
Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill
Moving west to Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River in Saskatchewan, the strategic decision is clearer.  
  • redistributing  the 2011 vote into the new riding boundaries would give the breakdown as:  Con (47%) / Lib (5%) / NDP (46%) / Green (2%)
  • threehundredeight.com gives the NDP a 56% chance of carrying the riding
  • the NDP have the best chance to take this riding away from the Conservatives

Strategic voting in Winnipeg (recap)

tactical voting winnipeg
Those who want to vote strategically in the coming election are often find it challenging to decide which party to vote for. This is again true in the current election.

In a series of posts I have reviewed five Winnipeg ridings where strategic voting could make a difference in voting.  These are:

Strategic Voting in Winnipeg South: vote Liberal

Winnipeg has become an important battle ground in the recent election. In the last election, in 2011, six of the eight ridings that include part of Winnipeg went Conservative.  In five of these, strategic voting could make a difference.
Tacitcal voting Winnipeg South
Strategic voting Winnipeg South

Winnipeg South: vote Liberal

  • CPC incumbent Rod Bruinooge is not running. 
  • electionprediction.org regards it as too close to call
  • threehundredandeight.com gives the Liberals an 90+% chance of taking the riding 
  • in 2011, the Liberals came in second with twice as many votes as the NDP
  • again, strategic voters should back the Liberal.

Strategic Voting in Saint Boniface-Saint Vital: vote Liberal

Saint Boniface-Saint Vital: vote Liberal

Tactical voting Saint Boniface-Saint Vital
Tactical voting in
Saint Boniface-Saint Vital
    In recent posts, I suggested that tactical voters in Elmwood-Transcona should vote NDP, that in Winnipeg South Centre, tactical voters are best advised to vote Liberal, and that in Kildonan-St. Paul, tactical votes should go to the NDP. In this post, I will argue that in Saint Boniface-Saint-Vital, strategic voters should back the Liberals.
      • Conservative MP Shelley Glover has decided not to run for re-election.
      • electionprediction.org calls election for the Liberals
      • a Mainstreet/Postmedia poll on Sept. 25 placed the Liberals ahead at 38% of decided voters in Saint Boniface-Saint Vital, compared to 25% for the CPC and 14% for the NDP. Undecided are 20%.
      • strategic voters should support the Liberal

      Sunday, October 04, 2015

      Strategic Voting in Kildonan-St. Paul: Vote NDP

      Kildonan-St. Paul: vote NDP

      Strategic voting in Kildonan-St. Paul
      Strategic voting in Kildonan-St. Paul
      In recent posts, I suggested strategic voters in Elmwood-Transcona should vote NDP, and in Winnipeg South Centre, strategic voters are best advised to vote Liberal. In this post, I will argue that although Kildonan-St. Paul is a long shot, tactical voters should back the NDP.
      • The incumbent MP for Kildonan-St. Paul, Conservative Joy Smith, has decided not to run for re-election;
      • threehundredandeight.com gives CPC an 80% chance of holding the riding;
      • in 2011, the CPC got 58% of the vote; the NDP, 30%; and the Libs, 8%. 
      • for further developments, consult the votetogether.ca profile and the ongoing discussion electionprediction.org 
      • strategic voters should probably back the NDP candidate

      Strategic voting in Winnipeg South Centre: vote Liberal

      Winnipeg South Centre: vote Liberal

      In my last post, I urged strategic voters in Elmwood-Transcona to vote NDP. In the nearby riding of Winnipeg South Centre, strategic voters should vote Liberal.

      Strategic voting in Winnipeg South Center
      Strategic voting in Winnipeg South Center
      • The Conservative incumbent is Joyce Bateman, who was recently in the news for reading a prepared list of 'Enemies of Israel' at a B'nai Brith sponsored campaign debate
      • Bateman captured the seat in 2011 by less than 700 votes. The results were Con 39%, Lib 37%, NDP 18%. 
      • a poll conducted by votetogether.ca Sept. 18-21 places the Liberal candidate (Jim Carr) ahead at 38%, with the Conservative at 31%, and the NDP at 23%
      • threehundredandeight.com projects the Liberal as having a 63% of winning
      • electionprediction.org projects the riding as a Liberal win
      • strategic voters would do best to back the Liberal candidate, Jim Carr.
      Although the prospects to defeat the Conservatives are good here, tactical voting is still advisable here.  According to a CBC report, the boundaries of the riding have been changed in the Conservatives favour.

        In sum, strategic voters would do best to back the Liberal candidate, Jim Carr.

        Update.  Votetogether has now endorsed the Liberals for strategic voters in Winnipeg South Centre.

          Strategic voting in Elmwood-Transcona: vote NDP

          Strategic voting in Elmwood-Transcona: vote NDP

          Strategic Voting in Elmwood-Transcona
          Strategic voting in Elmood-Transcona
          Winnipeg has become an important battle ground in the recent election. In the last election, in 2011, six of the eight ridings that include part of Winnipeg went Conservative. In several of these, strategic voting could make a difference.  One of these is Elmwood-Transcona.
          • Elmwood-Transcona is currently held by a CPC incumbent, Lawrence Toet, who captured the seat in 2011 with a margin of 284 votes;
          • the NDP candidate is Daniel Blaikie, son of Bill Blaikie, who represented Elmwood-Transcona from 1979 to 2008
          • two polls taken in Elmwood-Transcona conducted by votetogether.ca in August and September place the NDP support at 37% and 39%; the CPC at 30% and 39%; the Liberals at 25% and 20%; and Greens were 6% and 4%;
          • threehundredandeight.com projects the NDP have a 63% of winning;
          • see the discussion at electionprediction.org
          • strategic voters in Elmwood-Transcona should vote NDP

          Update on Elmwood-Transcona

          The CBC has a story on the NDP campaign in Elmwood-Transcona, which is pushing Blaikie as the strategic choice


          Strategic voting in Elmwood-Transcona
          NDP literature pushes strategic voting in Elmwood-Transcona

          Saturday, October 03, 2015

          Who gave CPC Candidate list of 'Enemies of Israel'?

          The Winnipeg Freepress reports (registration needed) that a Jewish audience, to its credit, reacted negatively to the Conservative candidate's attempt to smear Liberals as 'enemies of Israel':
          Bateman, the Conservative MP from Winnipeg South Centre who is running for re-election, was sitting onstage at the Asper Jewish Community Campus in Tuxedo for an all-candidates forum hosted by B'nai Brith. Up until that point in the evening, the crowd of 100 or so had been exceedingly polite and well-behaved.
          Bateman and the other candidates -- Liberal Jim Carr, New Democrat Matt Henderson and Green party candidate Andrew Park -- had performed admirably, tackling questions about the movement to boycott Israel, domestic terrorist threats, re-establishing diplomatic relations with Iran, poverty and the economy. 
          It was all going well until Bateman piqued the ire of the crowd when she starting reading off a list of names from the Liberal campaign -- volunteers, paid staff workers and candidates alike -- who had been identified by the Tories as "enemies" of Israel. As she got to Andrew Leslie -- the decorated retired lieutenant-general from the Canadian Armed Forces running for the Liberals in Ottawa-Orleans -- the crowd erupted with shouts of "shame." 
          Another report of the debate is here

          Friday, September 04, 2015

          Saturday, April 18, 2015

          Less bad than one would have predicted

          Michael Coren, who at times can seem appallingly stupid, has written a column on Ontario's new sex ed curriculum (here).

          Tuesday, February 24, 2015

          Dawg v FD Decision

          A friend of a friend forwarded me a copy of the ruling in Dr. Dawg's defamation case against Roger Smith and Freedominion.

          For those who need a reminder, Dawg had sued Mr. Roger Smith (also known as Peter O'Donnell) for describing him as "one of the Taliban's more vocal supporters" and FD for publishing it.

          The highlights are:
          1. the judge found that these words were indeed defamatory; 
          2. FD was indeed a publisher and therefore responsible for these words (their argument denying this "is disingenuous and ignores reality");
          3. because the words occurred within the context of a wider discussion that was within public interest, it could fall within the scope of a defence of fair comment;
          4. demonstration of malice would prevent a defence of fair comment, but because malice was not the dominant motive, fair comment stands.
          5. All parties are responsible for their own costs.
          All in all, this looks to me like a draw.  Bloggers and other commenters should note that 'malice' and 'fair comment' are terms of art and applied here to a specific interaction.  Reading between the lines, it looks to me like the FDers had a near miss on 'malice'.

          Favourite paragraph?  Obviously §201: 
          Given that the entire point of defamation law is to determine the meaning and effect of words, the defendants submit that an incoherent post cannot have any meaning and therefore cannot defame the plaintiff.
          Heh.

          Update.  Dawg's take here.