Tuesday, January 24, 2006

election effect on net-opposition to ssm (in progress)

As I mentioned (here), Vote Marriage endorsed 208 candidates in this election. Of these, 113 won. Of the winners, 99 were incumbants (mostly Conservatives, and a few Liberals) who voted against ssm last time. The fourteen new MPs who are on record against same-sex marriage are these. Five of these are replacing MPs who were against SSM:
  1. Colin Mayes (Okanagan—Shuswap, CPC), replaces retiring Darrell Stinson (CPC, anti-ssm), net effect 0.
  2. Edward Fast (Abbotsford, CPC), replaces retiring Randy White (CPC, anti-ssm), net effect 0.
  3. Michael Allen (Tobique—Mactaquac, CPC), defeats Andy Savoy (Lib., anti-ssm), net effect 0
  4. Richard Dykstra (St. Catharines, CPC), defeated Walt Lastewka (Lib., anti-ssm), net effect 0
  5. Ron Cannan (Kelowna--Lake Country, CPC), replaces retiring Werner Schmit (CPC, anti-ssm), net effect 0.

Nine replaced pro-ssm MPs.
  1. David Sweet (Ancaster--Dundas--Flamborough—Westdale, CPC), defeats Russ Powers (Lib., pro-ssm), net effect +1
  2. David Van Kesteren (Chatham-Kent—Essex, CPC), defeats Jerry Pickard (Lib., pro-ssm), net effect +1
  3. Laurie Hawn (Edmonton Center, CPC) defeats Anne McLellan (Lib., pro-ssm), net effect +1
  4. Fabian Manning (Avalon, CPC), replaces Efford (Lib., pro-ssm), net effect +1
  5. Harold Albrecht (Kitchener—Conestoga, CPC), defeats Lynn Myers (Lib., pro-ssm), net effect +1
  6. Maxime Bernier (Beauce, CPC), defeats Claude Drouin (Lib., pro-ssm), net effect +1
  7. Pierre Lemieux (Glengarry--Prescott--Russell, CPC) , replaces retired Don Boudria (Lib., pro-ssm), net effect +1
  8. Rod Bruinooge (Winnipeg South, CPC), defeated Reg Alcock (Lib., pro-ssm), net effect +1
  9. Tony Clement (Parry Sound--Muskoka, CPC), replaces Andy Mitchell (Lib., pro-ssm), net effect +1

On the other hand, there were anti-ssm marriage MPs, who were endorsed by Vote Marriage, who have been replaced by pro-ssm candidates. Here is a list:
  1. Dawn Black (NDP) defeated Paul Forseth (CPC, New Westminister), net effect, -1
  2. Penny Priddy (NDP) replaced deceased Chuck Cadman (IND, Surrey North), net effect, -1
  3. Alex Atamanenko (NDP) replaced retired Jim Gouk (CPC, BC Southern Int.), net effect, -1
  4. Catherine Bell (NDP) replaced John Duncan (CPC, Vanc. Island N.), net effect, -1
  5. Irene Mathyssen (NDP) replaces Pat O'Brien (Lib., London-Fanshawe.), net effect, -1
  6. Garth Turner (CPC, pro-ssm) defeated Gary Carr (Lib., anti-ssm), net effect, -1
  7. Sukh Dhaliwal (Lib.) replaces Gurmant Grewal (CPC, anti-ssm) in Newton-North Delta. According to this he "promises to uphold the Charter of Rights and Freedoms on the issue of same-sex marriage." Net effect -1.
  8. Omar Alghabra (Lib.) replaces retired Carolyn Parrish (Lib., anti-ssm) in Mississauga—Erindale This story implies that he is pro-ssm. Net effect -1

(I assume here that all NDPers are pro-ssm.) Some other ridings where MPs changed with possible effects:
  1. Bev Shipley (CPC, not endorsed by Vote Marriage) replaces retired Rosie-Marie Ur (Lib, anti-ssm) in Lambton-etc. His comments here make me assume he is anti-ssm. The net effect is 0.
  2. Mike Allen (CPC, not endorsed by Vote Marriage) defeated Andy Savoy (Lib., anti-ssm) in Tobique-Mactaquac. His web-page says he will 'defend traditional marriage', which clearly means he is anti-ssm. Net effect is 0.
  3. Blair Wilson (Lib.) replaces John Reynolds (CPC, anti-ssm) in West Vancouver-etc. (Update: in the comments Ian points out that Wilson's website implies that he supports ssm. Net effect -1
  4. Gary Merasty (Lib.) replaces Jeremy Harrison (CPC, anti-ssm) in Desnethé-etc.
  5. Tina Keeper (Lib.) replaces Bev Desjarlais (NDP, anti-ssm) in Churchill
  6. Jacques Gourde (CPC, not endorsed by Vote Marriage) defeated Odina Desrochers (BQ, anti-ssm) in Lotbinière-etc.

The base from which to compare is the series of votes on ssm in June 2005, when ssm passed by 158 to 133, with 16 absentees.

If you have information to add, please add it in comments, which are enabled.


Ted Betts said...

So overall, a plus 1?

I understand that John Baird would vote for equal marriage and you don't have him up.

One thing you haven't factored in is the Liberal cabinet solidarity. There may be a few former cabinet ministers who are willing to change their vote. Still, this is good analysis and looks like an open vote on a bill banning equal marriage would fail. But it's far from certain.


buckets said...

Thanks for pointing out Baird.

My methodology here is a bit of a mess. I started by basing this on the Vote Marriage endorsement list, and since that list does not include Baird (for obvious reasons), he got left out. To these, I added cases that may have a net effect. Since Baird replaced a pro-ssm Liberal, the net-effect is 0.

Ian King said...

Blair Wilson's site seems to indicate that he supports same-sex marriage. I've seen nothing else in the local press (on or offline) to contradict this. Consider that +1 pro-ssm MP.

There are a few former Liberal cabinet ministers who were both re-elected and personally opposed to SSM and therefore worth keeping an eye on:

Albina Guarnieri
Joe Volpe
Joe Fontana