Monday, October 12, 2015

Strategic voting in Courtney-Alberni: vote NDP

Strategic tactical voting in Courtney-Alberni
Strategic voting in Courtney-Alberni
Courtney-Alberni is a new riding that combines part of what used to be Nanaimo—Alberni (69%) and Vancouver Island North (31%). The riding includes Port Alberni and Courtney (obviously), as well as Parksville and

The Conservative candidate in Courtney-Alberni is John Duncan, who took 46% of vote in 2011, over the 2nd place NDPer with 43%.

The new riding is slightly less favourable to Duncan.  If the 2011 votes are redistributed within its boundaries, the Conservative would have received 45%, the NDP 41%, the Greens and Liberals both at 7%.

By itself this should mean that strategic voters should support the NDP.

As it happens, a recent poll conducted by Insights West (Sept. 13) confirms that. It found that support in the riding at: Con. 33%, NDP 39%, Lib. 13%, Green 12%.

Update, Oct. 15.  A new poll for BC from Insights West (pdf) confirms that strategic voters in Courtney-Alberni should vote NDP:

Strategic voting in Courtney-Alberni
Polls in Courtney-Alberni

Again it is fairly clear that the NDP have the best choice for strategic voters who want to avoid vote splitting and defeat the Conservatives. is expected to make a call for strategic voting in Courney-Alberni soon.

Update. A new poll (Oct. 13) shows that strategic voters should support the NDP.
Strategic voting in Courtney-Alberni
New poll in Courtney-Alberni

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For a full list of my calls, see here.