Tuesday, October 20, 2015

A few interesting statistics

The election result in the end probably showed that strategic voting in most ridings was unnecessary or, indeed, count-productive.

But I take some pleasure in the following statistics:
  • my post recommending that strategic voters in Edmonton Mill Woods vote Liberal appeared at the top of the google search for 'strategic voting Mill Woods'
  • I received 89 visits to this page from Edmonton
  • the Liberal candidate was elected by a margin of 80 votes
Elsewhere my effect was less noticeable.
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Sunday, October 18, 2015

What were they thinking?

Pundits are puzzled by the decision of the Fords to associate themselves with a controversial and reviled figure.  The damage to the Ford brand could be significant.

The Ford brothers with admirer at last night's Conservative rally.

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Some useful "word power" books

Here are some books that I've come across recently that might be useful for those who want to build their knowledge of word-power and etymologies:

  1. Norman Lewis, Word Power Made Easy
  2. Medical Terminology For Dummies (2nd-Edition)
  3. Lewis Stiles, The Anatomy of Medical Terminology
  4. Verbal Advantage: Steps to a Powerful Vocabulary
  5. Barron's 1100 Words You Need Know

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Saturday, October 17, 2015

Strategic voting in Nipissing—Timiskaming: vote Liberal

The riding of Nipissing—Timiskaming was one of the closest in the country in 2011. The Conservative Jay Aspin defeated the Liberal Anthony Rota by a mere 18 votes.  The NDP received 8,781 and the Greens 2,518.

Strategic voting in Nipissing—Timiskaming

Clearly this is a riding where strategic voting is desired.  Nor is it difficult to see that strategic voters should line up behind the Liberal.

If there were any doubt about that, a local opinion poll conducted by CTV should remove it:
Strategic voting in Nipissing—Timiskaming


Some recent posts:
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Friday, October 16, 2015

Strategic voting in Perth-Wellington: vote Liberal

If polls are to be believed, the Liberals are dominating in Ontario. Grenier's poll tracker projects the Liberal support in Ontario at 43% and the Conservatives down to 31%:
Polls and Strategic voting Perth-Wellington
Ontario Polls from Poll Tracker
This shift against Harper is showing up on the ground in ridings that one would normally assume are fairly safe, such as Perth-Wellington, where a local poll conducted by Mainstreet Research for Postmedia, which found a neck-and-neck race between the Conservatives and Liberals:

Polling in Perth-Wellington

If this poll is correct, strategic voters in Perth-Wellington should vote for the Liberals.

The riding includes such towns as Stratford, St. Marys, Elora, Fergus, and Minto.

Some recent posts:
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Thursday, October 15, 2015

heh


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Wednesday, October 14, 2015

Conservative: Trudeau will mandate brothels and drugs

The Harper campaign has surely now jumped the shark:



Transcript:

Young: "Do you want communities in Oakville that are quite and safe, where our largest investment, our homes, retain their value, as they do now.  Or communities where a federal Liberal government mandates legally protected brothels with madams and all that goes with that (audience groans) — because the Liberals have promised legalize the selling of women in Canada — and mandates marijuana stores, like in Vancouver where there are more illegal marijuana stores than Starbucks, and mandates drug injection sites with no local input from the neighbours.  One day most of plan to sell our homes. What family would invest their life savings in a home near a marijuana store, a brothel, or an injection site…'
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Calgary Confederation, Skyview, and Centre: strategic voters should support the Liberals

Update, Oct. 17.   A new poll in Calgary Centre has the Liberals and Conservatives neck-and-neck.  Strategic voters could make the difference.

Strategic voting in Calgary Confederation, Skyview, and Centre
Calgary Conferation,
Calgary Skyview,
Calgary Centre
This election has a few more surprises than most, and the fracturing of the Conservatives' fortress in Calgary might be one of them.

A news story from the CBC reports that three Calgary ridings are surprisingly competitive: Calgary Centre, Calgary Confederation, and Calgary Skyview.

This is also the interpretation of Eric Grenier over at threehundredeight.com.  His current projections for the Calgary ridings paint three ridings red: Calgary Centre, Calgary Confederation, and Calgary Skyview

Strategic voting in Calgary Confederation, Skyview, and Centre
Calgary projections from threehundredeight.com
The striking thing is not merely that Grenier's a projecting these three seat for the Liberals.  It is also seeing weakness in other ridings such as Signal Hill and Forest Lawn.

For Calgary voters who want to vote strategically to defeat Harper, however, the message is clear.  Vote Liberal.

Some recent posts:
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Strategic voting in Edmonton Mill Woods: vote Liberal

Strategic voting in Edmonton Mill Woods
Strategic voting in
Edmonton Mill Woods
Recent local polls are bringing up some more opportunities for strategic voters, one of them is Edmonton Millwoods.

Edmonton Millwoods is a new riding located in south-east Edmonton. It was formed from the previous riding of Edmonton-Millwoods-Beaumont, which was once represented by Liberal David Kilgour.

A new poll conducted by MainStreet Research for the Friends of Canadian Broadcasting suggests that the riding could be in play:
Strategic voting in Edmonton Mill Woods
New Poll in Edmonton Mill Woods
Some recent posts:
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Strategic Voting in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas: vote Liberal

Update, Oct. 17: the votetogether.ca team has endorsed Tassi, the Liberal candidate in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas, as the best positioned to defeat the Conservatives.


Strategic Tactical Voting in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas
Strategic Voting in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas
Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas (HWAD) is a new riding made up of the urban and suburban parts of what used to be Ancaster-Dundas-Flamorough-Westdale.  Its formation resulted in the rural polls of Flamborough being joined with Glanborough to form a new largely rural riding.

HWAD should now be a three-way race, with Conservative voters from upscale Ancaster and Dundas, NDP voters from Hamilton, and Liberals from both.  And it should be an active riding for all parties, because the McMaster student base should become active in all three parties.

Strategic tactical voting in Hamilton West Ancaster Dundas
Strategic voting in HWAD
If the 2011 are redistributed into the new riding (see here), the result would have been CPC 40%, NDP 28%, Liberal 25%.  But in this election, most polls are showing the Liberals have strengthened in Ontario at the expense of both other parties.

Threehundredeight.com projects a Liberal victory here, with the lower bounds of their expected tally above the upper limit of the Conservative.

Now there is a new local poll that confirms that result. Mainstreet Research conducted a poll of the riding for Friends of Canadian Broadcasting.  It found the Liberals in the lead:

Strategic voting Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas
Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas
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Tuesday, October 13, 2015

Strategic voting in Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound: vote Liberal

Strategic tactical voting in Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound
Strategic voting in Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound
A new local poll reveals another riding that is surprisingly competitive: Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound, which includes the city of Owen Sound and towns such as Port Elgin, Southampton, Walkerton, Wiarton, Lucknow, Hanover, and Meaford.

The riding has been reliably Conservative since 2004, sending Larry Miller to Ottawa with ever increasing margins.

The voters of Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound, however, may have had enough of the Conservatives.

A poll in the riding in September showed some weakness and a new poll released today confirms that:

Strategic voting in Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound

To judge from today's poll, the Liberals may be within striking distance if a few more Greens and NDP back them.

Some recent posts:
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Strategic voting in Cariboo-Prince George: vote NDP

Strategic voting in Cariboo-Prince George
Strategic voting in Cariboo-Prince George
Cariboo-Prince George is large and remote, making up some 80,000 sq. km. of central BC and includes the cities of Quesnel and Williams Lake.

Cariboo-Prince George is not a place that one would expect the Conservatives to be vulnerable—it has been reliably Conservative since the late 70s.

Recent polls, however, show that the NDP could defeat them here:

Strategic voting in Cariboo-Prince George poll

The key is that anti-Harper voters support the NDP.

Some recent posts:
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Sign contest: why is this woman giving her hard earned money to Harper


Comments open
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Monday, October 12, 2015

Strategic Voting in Central Nova: vote Liberal

Strategic voting in Central Nova
Strategic voting in Central Nova
The riding of Central Nova in Nova Scotia is a riding where strategic voting could make a difference.  Its long-time MP, Peter MacKay, is not standing for re-election.

MacKay had won with over 50% of the vote, and his decision to retire from politics hurts the Conservatives in Nova Scotia.



How much it has hurt can be seen in the new figures, where Eric Grenier sees 40% as the high estimate for Conservative support.

Some local polling also suggest the Cons are vulnerable here:

Polls in Central Nova

Given that the polls were taken only a few days apart, but have quite different results, the results should probably be interpreted as a sign of Conservative vulnerability rather than a basis for confidence.  

Nevertheless, there is every possibility that Central Nova is a riding that is ripe for the picking if a handful of NDP and Green voters support the Liberals.

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Strategic voting in Haldimand-Norfolk: vote Liberal

Eric Grenier's threehundredeight.com is a great resource for strategic voters, as this map illustrates.
Strategic voting in Haldimand-Norfolk
Strategic voting in Haldimand-Norfolk

The riding in question is Haldimand-Norfolk on the shores of Lake Erie, which includes  Caledonia, Dunnville, Hagersville, Jarvis and Cayuga in Haldimand and  Simcoe and Port Dover in Norfolk.

Grenier's figures are helpful because they project what he estimates on the basis of the most recent polls and how they might factor into different ridings.

Here his best guess is that the Conservatives will take the riding by a couple percent.  A modicum of strategic voting here, however, could push the Liberals over the victory line.  Strategic voters should therefore support the Liberals here.

Some recent posts:
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Strategic voting in North Island-Powell River: vote NDP

The teams over at votetogether.ca have begun making recommendations in dozens of ridings for the up-coming election. They have recommended that strategic voters in North Island-Powell River support vote the NDP.  In addition to other factors they point to an Environics poll from Sept. 19 in which the NDP (41%) were well ahead of the Conservatives (27%), the Liberals (18%), and the Greens.
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Strategic voting in Nanaimo-Ladysmith: vote NDP



    A new poll for BC from Insights West (pdf) confirms that strategic voters in Nanaimo-Ladysmith should vote NDP.  Here are their poll results:

    Strategic voting in Nanaimo-Ladysmith
    Poll in Nanaimo-Ladysmith



    The good people at votetogether.ca have begun making their recommendations, which include one for strategic voting in Nanaimo-Ladysmith.

    Some of their other recommendations:

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    Strategic voting in Courtney-Alberni: vote NDP

    Strategic tactical voting in Courtney-Alberni
    Strategic voting in Courtney-Alberni
    Courtney-Alberni is a new riding that combines part of what used to be Nanaimo—Alberni (69%) and Vancouver Island North (31%). The riding includes Port Alberni and Courtney (obviously), as well as Parksville and

    The Conservative candidate in Courtney-Alberni is John Duncan, who took 46% of vote in 2011, over the 2nd place NDPer with 43%.

    The new riding is slightly less favourable to Duncan.  If the 2011 votes are redistributed within its boundaries, the Conservative would have received 45%, the NDP 41%, the Greens and Liberals both at 7%.

    By itself this should mean that strategic voters should support the NDP.

    As it happens, a recent poll conducted by Insights West (Sept. 13) confirms that. It found that support in the riding at: Con. 33%, NDP 39%, Lib. 13%, Green 12%.

    Update, Oct. 15.  A new poll for BC from Insights West (pdf) confirms that strategic voters in Courtney-Alberni should vote NDP:

    Strategic voting in Courtney-Alberni
    Polls in Courtney-Alberni


    Again it is fairly clear that the NDP have the best choice for strategic voters who want to avoid vote splitting and defeat the Conservatives.

    Votetogether.ca is expected to make a call for strategic voting in Courney-Alberni soon.

    Update. A new poll (Oct. 13) shows that strategic voters should support the NDP.
    Strategic voting in Courtney-Alberni
    New poll in Courtney-Alberni


    Recent posts:
    For a full list of my calls, see here.



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    Strategic voting in Oshawa: vote NDP

    Strategic voting in Oshawa
    Strategic voting in Oshawa
    The riding of Oshawa is another one where strategic voting could make a difference. It's boundaries have changed slightly, losing territory to Durham and gaining it from Whitby—Oshawa.

    The 2011 results were solidly Conservative; if they are redistributed according to the new riding boundaries, they'd be: Con (51%), NDP (37%), Lib 8%, Green 4%.

    There is no local polling to help the strategic voter out here, but recent national polls seem to suggest that the Conservatives are down in Ontario and the Liberals are up.  If strategically voting Liberals and Greens in Oshawa can swim against that tide and vote NDP, there is a good prospect of defeating the Conservatives in Oshawa.

    Some recent posts:
    For an overview of strategic voting posts, see here.
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    Vote together makes strategic recommendations in sixteen ridings

    The good people over at votetogether.ca is making the following strategic choices for voters in the 2015 election:

    Alberta
    British Columbia
    Manitoba
    New Brunswick
    Ontario
    Saskatchewan

    For my list of other ridings, see my summary of strategic voting recommendations
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    Sunday, October 11, 2015

    Strategic voting in Peterborough—Kawartha: vote Liberal

    Peterborough—Kawartha is a new riding made up mostly from the old riding of Peterborough.  It includes (obviously) Peterborough and its environs.

    Strategic voting in Peterborough—Kawartha
    Dean Del Mastro convicted
    Strategic voters in Peterborough—Kawartha have good reason to want to avoid vote splitting and change parties in this election.  Its Conservative MP for the last decade has been the odious Dean Del who was found guilty last year of electoral corruption and tampering wiht documents and sent to prison.

    In the last election, Delmastro was elected quite easily with 47% of the vote, followed by the Liberal with 32% and the NDP with 14%.

    Two polls have been conducted in the riding since the writ was dropped:
    Both these polls and its history suggest that strategic voters should support the Liberals.

    Update.  More polls confirm the call. From wikipedia summary of local election polls:


    See Votetogether.ca's page to confirm that strategic voters in Peterborough—Kawartha should vote Liberal.

    Some recent posts:
    For an overview of strategic voting posts, see here.

    Votetogether.ca's recommendations:

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    Strategic voting in South Okanagan-West Kootenay: vote NDP

    Update for Oct. 15. A new poll for BC from Insights West (pdf) confirms that strategic voters in South Okanagan-West Kootenay should vote NDP:

    Strategic voting in South Okanagan-West Kootenay
    Polls for South Okanagan-West Kootenay: vote NDP



    Strategic voting in South Okanagan-West Kootenay
    Strategic voting in South Okanagan-West Kootenay
    The riding of South Okanagan-West Kootenay in a new riding that includes the cities Castlegar, Grand Forks, Oliver, Osoyoos, Penticton, and Trail. That is, it is made up of parts of the old British Columbia Southern Interior, which NDP Alex Atamanenko had represented, and Okanagan-Coquihalla, which had voted Conservative.

    If one redistributes the 2011 votes in the new ridings (as is done here), the results would be Con. 45%,  NDP 39%, Lib. 7%, Green 8%.  This suggests that avoiding vote splitting is key here, given that Atamanenko has retired.

    A local poll conducted by Insights West (September 13) suggests that the NDP are well positioned to prevail.  It found support to be Con (33),  NDP (42), Lib.  (18),  Green (4).

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    Strategic voting Kootenay-Columbia: vote NDP

    Strategic voting in Kootenay-Columbia
    Strategic voting in Kootenay-Columbia
    As I pointed out in my post on strategic voting in North Okanagan—Shuswap, some might be surprised that some of these ridings in the BC Interior are competitive enough.

    Such is also the case in Kootenay-Columbia, which includes Cranbrook, Revelstoke, Kimberley, Fernie, Golden, Sparwood, and Nelson.  In the last election, vote splitting wasn't a factor: the Conservative won with 50% of the vote, compared to 39% NDP, 4% Liberal, and 6% Green.

    A redrawing of the riding, however, has brought 4000 net NDP votes into the riding and this could make a difference.

    An Environics Poll from September 19, 2015 placed the NDP and Conservatives in a dead head: Con (37%), NDP (37%), Lib. (15%), and Green (11%).

    This suggests that to avoid vote splitting, strategic voters should support the NDP.

    Update. Votetogether.ca has now endorsed the NDP for strategic voters in Kootenay-Columbia.

    Some recent posts:
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    Saturday, October 10, 2015

    Strategic voting in Kanata-Carleton: vote Liberal

    Strategic tactical voting in Kanata-Carleton
    Strategic voting in Kanata-Carleton
    The riding of Kanata-Carleton in Ottawa is a new riding formed out of pieces of the old riding of Carleton—Mississippi Mills, which has been a fairly safe Conservative.  Despite this, it is shaping up to be a close race. (See a news story about this here).

    In the last election, Gordon O'Connor received 57% of the vote, followed by the Liberal with 24%, the NDP with 15%, and the Green with 4%.  Gordon O'Connor, however, decided not to stand for re-election.

    A recently conducted poll suggests that this is a tight race between Conservative Walter Pamic (whose past militant anti-unionism has become controversial) and Liberal Karen McCrimmon.


     Clearly strategic voters will want to support the Liberals here and avoid the vote splitting.

    Some recent posts:


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    Strategic voting in North Okanagan—Shuswap: vote NDP

    Strategic tactical voting in North Okanagan—Shuswap
    Strategic voting in
    North Okanagan—Shuswap
    Some might be surprised that North Okanagan—Shuswap, which includes the cities of Vernon, Armstrong, Coldstream, and Salmon Arm, is included among ridings where strategic voting could make a difference.  After all, in the last election the Conservatives were elected with an easy 55%, compared to 27% for the NDP, 7% for the Liberals, and 11% for the Greens.

    Several important factors contribute to change.  First, the incumbent Colin Mayes decided not to run; second, Conservative support in BC has softened; and third, the Conservative nominee Mel Arnold seems to be a climate change denier.  

    A recent poll conducted by Oracle Research supports the view that change is afoot in North Okanagan—Shuswap. It finds the NDP in front with 41% support, the Conservatives with 38%, Liberals at 12% and Greens at 9%.  If strategic voters want to avoid vote splitting in North Okanagan—Shuswap, they should support the NDP.

    Update.  A new poll from Environics confirms that strategic voters in North Okanagan-Shuswap should vote NDP:

    Strategic voting in North Okanagan Shuswap


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    Strategic voting in Cowichan—Malahat—Langford: vote NDP

    Update. Oct. 15. A new poll for BC from Insights West (pdf) confirms that the in Cowichan—Malahat—Langford are best placed to defeat the Conservatives:

    Strategic voting in Cowichan—Malahat—Langford
    Oct. 15 Poll for Cowichan—Malahat—Langford: vote NDP




    Strategic tactical voting in Cowichan—Malahat—Langford
    Strategic voting in Cowichan-Malahat-Langford
    Another new riding in BC is Cowichan—Malahat—Langford, which includes parts of the old ridings of Nanaimo—Cowichan and Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca, both of which elected NDP MPs in the last election.

     If the votes of the last election were cast in the current boundaries, the result would have been very close: Con 43%, NDP 43.5%, Lib 6%, Green 7%.

    Recent polls confirm that it is close. An Insight West poll released Oct. 7 places support as: Con 21%, NDP 26%, Lib 10%, Green 14%, with 26% undecided.

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